NFL Picks: Week 3 Advanced Lines to Keep You Ahead of the Curve

Kevin Stott

Friday, September 18, 2015 2:01 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 18, 2015 2:01 PM UTC

With NFL's second week of the season now in the books, let’s get an early jump on the Advanced Odds for this NFL Week 3 betting from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Sin City.

Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants -5½
The Washington Redskins (4-12 SU, 5-11 ATS, vs. Rams Sunday) and HC Jay Gruden (5-12 ATS) head north to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday to face the New York Giants (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS; vs Falcons Sunday) in what will be the first NFC East game for both teams this 2015/16 NFL Regular Season. Last year, the G-Men won and covered both meetings against the Redskins (2-10 SU vs. NFC East L2 seasons), rolling to a 45-14 victory at Washington as 3-point underdogs, and winning 24-13 here at Home as 7-point favorites. With the Giants are 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings, backing QB Eli Manning and WR Odell Beckham, Jr. here at Home in a romp is the easy call. Also, very notable: The Giants are 6-0 ATS, 3-0 ATS vs. the NFC East and 2-0 ATS at Home on TNF while the Redskins are a woeful 1-3 ATS and 0-2 ATS on the Road under the Thursday night lights.
Free NFL Pick: Giants -5½


Pittsburgh Steelers vs. St. Louis Rams -2½
The Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis is the site of this Week 3 inter-conference meeting next Sunday afternoon between the host St. Louis Rams (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS; at Redskins Sunday) and QB Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS, vs. 49ers Sunday). Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS the L8 against St. Louis and the last time these two met here 41-24 in 2007 as 8-point underdogs and the Steelers will be getting RB Le’Veon Bell back here after serving a 2-game Suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse police while teammate WR Martavis Bryant will be unavailable as he sits out the third game of his 4-game Suspension for the same offense Expect Big Ben to give the ball the Bell boatloads now that he’s back, and for RB DeAngelo Williams to also continue to thrive for the Black and Gold.


San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings -3
The Minnesota Vikings (7-9 SU, 10-6 ATS, vs. Lions Sunday) open the doors of TCF Bank Stadium next Sunday to the San Diego Chargers (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS; at Bengals Sunday) for this exciting inter-conference battle from the Land of 10,000 Lakes. These two teams don’t play often, but the last time they met here in Minnesota, the Vikings romped 35-17 in 2007 as 7-point underdogs, while the last time they met was at San Diego in the 2011 season opener where the Chargers won 24-17 as 9-point favorites. Minnesota QB Teddy Bridgewater and RB Adrian Peterson were extremely unimpressive in the Vikings Week 1 loss at San Francisco on Monday night.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Houston Texans -8½
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14 SU, 7-9 ATS, at Saints Sunday) and Rookie QB Jameis Winston play their second straight Road game in Week 3 when they head to NRG Stadium in Houston to face the Houston Texans (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) in this inter-conference game. These two teams play once every three seasons or so, and the last time they met was in 2011 where the Texans won 37-9 in Tampa Bay as 3-point favorites while, the last time they met here in H-Town, Houston defeated the Buccaneers, 28-14 as 3-point underdogs. Even with Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett at QB, the hosts will have a huge edge at QB and toss in the site and you can see why this is lined so high. The Texans may win this one by 20.
Free NFL Pick: Texans -9½


Philadelphia Eagles -3½ vs. New York Jets
The Philadelphia Eagles (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS; vs.Cowboys Sunday night) and new QB Sam Bradford head to East Rutherford, New Jersey for the second in five games on the NFL Week 3 betting rotation being played in MetLife Stadium—home to both the AFC’s Jets and the NFC’s Giants—to play the New York Jets (4-12 SU, 6-9-1; at Indianapolis Monday night) in a fun inter-divisional affair which has certainly gained some luster all of a sudden. The last time these two teams played (in 2011), the Eagles rolled to a 45-19 win as 3-point favorites while the last time these two played here in East Rutherford, Philadelphia again won and covered, 16-9 as 4-point favorites. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS L6 against the Jets and 3-1 ATS on the L4 here at MetLife Stadium. However, those were different Jets Rosters and this one may be best watched. New York will head into this Home date believing it can win.


New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers -2½
This is huge NFC South game for the host Carolina Panthers (8-9-1 SU, 9-9 ATS; vs. Texans Sunday) and QB Cam Newton as Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS; vs. Buccaneers Sunday) on Sunday at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte in Week 3 with the loser possibly being behind the 8-ball all season. Last season, the Saints covered both meetings, winning 28-10 as 3-point chalks in New Orleans in the first meeting and then losing, but covering, as 3½-point underdogs in a 19-17 loss here at Charlotte. The Panthers are 3-1 ATS the L4 meetings here at Home against New Orleans and even without WR Kelvin Benjamin who is injured and out for the year, the lean would be to the hosts over an aging Saints team devoid of any depth at the the skill spots on Offense and overall pretty bad on D (allowed 26 ppg 2014).


Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots -12½
The New England Patriots (15-4 SU, 11-8 ATS, at Bills Sunday) and QB Tom Brady (70-48-4 ATS Home) host the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS; vs. Dolphins Sunday) in the visitors first Road game of the season ... against the defending Super Bowl champions. How are you doing? Besides being a game between a Bad team and a Great team, this one is in Foxborough at Gillette Stadium where the Patriots seldom lose. The last time these two met here was back in 2009 where the Patriots spanked Jacksonville, 35-7 as 9½-point favorites, while the last time they met overall was in Jacksonville in the 2012 season where New England won 23-16 but failed to cover as 13½-point favorites. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS the L5 against the Jaguars here at Home and should spank them, but still. 12½. But still, lean New England to win by 15 or more. Note, Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount is back for the team after serving a 1-game Suspension in Week 1. The double-digit number (12½) would be the highest Point Spread of season to date.
Free NFL Pick: Patriots -12½


Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens -3 (-120)
The Baltimore Ravens (11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS, at Raiders) finally get to play their first Home game after playing out West in Denver (Week 1) and this coming Sunday in Oakland (Week 2). Here, QB Joe Flacco and Baltimore host the Cincinnati Bengals (10-6-1 SU, 8-8-1 ATS, vs. Chargers) next Sunday afternoon in Week 3 action in an absolutely massive, albeit early, AFC North tilt. Last season, the Bengals and QB Andy Dalton upset and covered against host Baltimore in Week 1 as 1-point underdogs (23-16), while Cincinnati also won (and covered), 27-24 as 3-point underdogs at Home in the return leg in the Buckeye State. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS over the L5 against the Ravens and Cincy and RB Jeremy Hill could win this one (again) straight up, especially if Baltimore is coming in off a Win over the Raiders (and not a Loss and an 0-2 start, and with anger in their blood).
Free NFL Pick: Bengals +3 Even


Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns (7-9 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, vs. Titans Sunday) welcome the Oakland Raiders (3-13 SU, 8-8 ATS; vs. Ravens Sunday) to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland next weekend for this AFC inter-divisional game from the Buckeye State between two of the worst teams in the NFL. No Line? Blame Johnny Manziel. Global warming? Blame Johnny Manziel. Grease stains on your duvet? Blame Johnny Manziel. The last time these two met was in 2012 where the Browns won and pushed 20-17 as 3-point favorites at Oakland, while the last time these two met here in Cleveland, the Browns rolled 23-9 as 3-point favorites in 2009. Cleveland is 6-2-1 ATS over the L9 vs. Oakland while the Browns are 3-0 ATS the L3 here in Cleveland. But seriously folks: Those were better Browns teams and the Raiders are improving. And with Josh McCown fighting and injury and second-year man Manziel so raw, this one may be best treated as comedy, if watched. Stink, stank, stunk.


Indianapolis Colts -4½ vs. Tennessee Titans
Andrew Luck (14-13 ATS Away) and the Indianapolis Colts (13-6 SU, 12-6-1 ATS; vs. Jets Monday Night) take the short flight south over the state of Kentucky to Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee to face the Tennessee Titans (2-14 SU, 3-12-1 ATS) and Rookie QB Marcus Mariota in this Week 3 game from the Volunteer State which suddenly seems like a winnable game for the Titans—as the oddsmakers have seen with the Advanced Line Point Spread sure to bring a smile to yours and every face in the USA. Last season, the Colts (12-0 SU L2 years in AFC South) and TY Hilton beat the Titans, 27-10 here as modest 7-point favorites, while Indianapolis also won at Home in Week 4, 41-17 also as 7-point chalks. The Colts are an unblemished 6-0-1 ATS the L7 against Tennessee and would still be the preferred choice, especially after that embarrassing loss in week 1 in Buffalo.


Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys -4½
This NFC inter-divisional game from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas sees QB Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and the Atlanta Falcons (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, at Eagles Sunday night) facing QB Tony Romo and the host Dallas Cowboys (5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS, at Giants Sunday) in a Week 3 game sure to be huge for both. The last time these two played, the Falcons won 19-13 at home as 3-point favorites in 2012 while the last time these two met here in Big D in Jerry World, the Cowboys rolled to a 37-21 victory as 4½-point favorites in 2009 when we we are all still Young and Spry. America’s Team will be without the services of star WR Dez Bryant (Broken bone in Foot) injury and this game could be one to just watch, with the Over probably the best look. Pass.


San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals -4½
Mercurial QB Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers (8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, at Steelers Sunday) head to the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona in Week 3 to face the Arizona Cardinals (8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, at Bears Sunday) in a big NFC West game from the Valley of the Sun. Cardinals HC Bruce Arians (22-11-1 ATS) has one of the best ATS Records of all current NFL head honchos without ponchos, and last season, Arizona won this game at Home and covered as 3-point underdogs (23-14), while in the return leg in The City By The Bay, the 49ers won 20-17, and the Cardinals again covered as 5½-point underdogs. But with the 49ers 9-3 ATS over the L13 in this series and San Francisco an impressive 8-2 ATS the L10 here in the desert, the Trends, the Points and the us-against-the-world mentality of NaVorro Bowman, Carlos Hyde points to the dog. So, woof. Even those those were different teams over the last decade, 4½ points seems heavy and San Francisco could win this game, although it will be the second of back-to-back Road dates for SF (Pittsburgh, Week 2).
Free NFL Pick: 49ers +4½


Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks -9½
This might be the second-highest Point Spread on the NFL betting board so far this season, with the Chicago Bears (5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS, vs. Cardinals Sunday) and QB Jay Cutler playing their first Road game of the new season here at not-so-quiet CenturyLink Field in Seattle against the defending NFC champions Seattle Seahawks (14-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS; at Packers Sunday) and QB Russell Wilson. The good news for Da Bears here is that Seattle will be coming off a rough game in Green Bay against the Packers, so with that and still likely without holdout SS Kam Chancellor, Chicago can win, right? (This is a rhetorical question, not a handicap.) We’ll see, but the number laughs at that possibility. The last time these two played, the Seahawks won 23-17 in Chicago as 3-point underdogs in 2012, while the last time these two danced in the Emerald City, the Seahawks hibernated the Bears, 30-23 as 5½-point chalks, Dorothy. So the Seahawks have covered the L2 Regular Season meetings although Chicago won in the 2010 NFC Playoffs in the Windy City, 35-24 as 10-point favorites. Seattle is 5-2 ATS in the L7 meetings.


Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins -3 (-120)
Sunny Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida is the site of this Week 3 AFC East showdown between QB Ryan Tannehill and the Miami Dolphins (8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS; at Jaguars Sunday) and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Buffalo Bills (9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS, vs. Patriots Sunday). Buffalo will be coming off a ferocious Colts-Patriots start in Weeks 1-2 and this will be their first Road game, thus the Point Spread between these two teams whom many expect much from this season. Last season, the Dolphins defeated the Bills, 22-9 as 3½-point favorites in this game in the Sunshine State while Buffalo did the same at Home in the Empire State, bottling Miami, 29-10 as mere 1½-point chalks at not-sunny Ralph Wilson Stadium.. The Dolphins are 1-3 ATS in the L4 with Buffalo, while the Fish are 3-1 ATS the L4 here at Home in South Florida, so this seems like a site-driven series lately, both SU and ATS. But this one is probably best watched, as with its staunch D, Buffalo can win this game here this time around. In Rex we trust?


Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions (PK)
Ford Field in Detroit is the site of this inter-conference meeting between the host Detroit Lions (11-6 SU, 8-9 ATS; at Vikings Sunday) and QB Matthew Stafford and the Denver Broncos (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS in 2014; at Chiefs Thursday night) and QB Peyton Manning next Sunday night in prime time. Denver will come in with 9 days of Rest after playing in Kansas City on Thursday night (CBS, Chiefs -3, Total: 41½, Pinnacle). The last time these two teams played was in 2011 when the Lions upset the Broncos, 45-10 as 3-point favorites while the last time these two met in Motown (2007), Detroit also open a can of whoop ass on Denver, winning 44-7, also as 3-point favorites. The Lions are 4-1 ATS the L5 against Denver but this is a tricky game to handicap and another one probably best just watched and enjoyed although the Broncos are the superior team, but will be on the second of back-to-back Road games and will be playing in a Time Zone (EDT) two hours ahead of their collective Body Clocks (MDT), although with the game being the featured prime time affair on NBC, it’s a 6:25 p.m (MDT) start for the visitors, so about the same effect for both although Ford Field is Indoors, 72° like a Mall and not at Altitude. And in Detroit.


Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers -6½
Historic Lambeau Field in Green Bay is the site of this Monday Night Football Week 3 game between the visiting and upstart Kansas City Chiefs (9-7 SU, 10-6 ATS; vs. Broncos Thursday night) and QB Alex Smith (28-25-2 ATS) and the Green Bay Packers (10-4 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, at Seahawks Sunday) and QB Aaron Rodgers (34-18-3 ATS Home). On MNF, the Packers—who will be without star WR Jordy Nelson for the season—are 7-9 ATS as a Home Favorite while HC Andy Reid (20-14 ATS) and the Chiefs are 6-6 ATS as a Road Underdog under the Monday night lights. The last time these two met was in 2011 in Kansas City where the Chiefs won outright as large 11½-point underdogs. And although this one is at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, the Trends say “No, no, no,” as Kansas City is 6-1 ATS the L7 vs. the Cheeseheads and the Chiefs are also a perfect 3-0 ATS the L3 here in Green Bay, No thanks.


NFL WEEK 3 ADVANCED LINE PICKS: Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook
Giants (-5½) vs. Redskins
Patriots (-12½) vs. Jaguars
Texans (-9½) vs. Buccaneers
Bengals (+3) vs. Ravens
49ers (+4½) vs. Cardinals

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