NFL Picks: Week 2 Value Bets

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, September 9, 2014 5:54 PM GMT

It was a wild week in the NFL and more than one football handicapper had their lunch handed to him with his NFL picks. Unconfirmed reports had a record opening weekend on take for sportsbooks.

Given the results, this was not really a surprise and I’ll also look to improve this week with my top value picks against the NFL odds.

 

Steelers vs. Ravens: Baltimore Already In Desperate Situation
Missed on the Ravens here with my NFL picks, but think they rebound and knock off bitter division rival Pittsburgh here. While it is only Week 2, Baltimore would already be in real trouble in the AFC North with a loss, because they would be two games behind the Steelers and be in a near impossible situation for tiebreakers down the road with two home losses in the division.

Also, the focus level of the Ravens receivers has to go up significantly since after last week, they would never be able to work for State Farm Insurance as the – Good Hands people – with all the drops they had. Baltimore has not lost consecutive home games since 2007 and does not against Pittsburgh, beating the NFL odds.

NFL Football Free Pick- Baltimore -3

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Patriots vs. Vikings: New England Set to Rebound
It was hard to believe and for New England fans, it must have been like being awake for a nightmare. The Patriots held a 20-10 halftime lead over Miami and by all appearances was on their way to a victory. But once the third quarter began, the New England offensive line was overwhelmed and could not run of pass block. The receivers could no longer create separation in running pass routes and Tom Brady struggled with accuracy without time to throw.

This ended up having New England losing 33-20 and immediately thoughts to turned to the Patriots being overrated.

Brady and the boys might not be what they once were, but Bill Belichick is still the best in-season game coach when it comes to making adjustments and leave no doubt he will find a solution to make his team better.

While I was impressed with what Minnesota accomplished in their opener at St. Louis, first-year coaches like Mike Zimmer are notorious bad bets and with New England just a field goal favorite and 10-1 ATS off a division game the past two years, they are a solid value play.

NFL Football Free Pick- New England -3

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Cowboys vs. Titans: Tennessee Worth a Look as Home Favorite
Tennessee did not lack for toughness under former coach Mike Munchak they just didn’t always play with the right amount of intelligence. Enter Ken Whisenhunt, who is also rather stern, but more demanding in terms of execution.

This leads us to Dallas, who seldom executes properly over four quarters. The Cowboys weakened defense actually played well considering the offense committed four turnovers. Tony Romo might have been rusty, but it’s not like everyone has not seen him play like that before.

I view the Titans as the better team, likely to play with more precision and they have an outstanding 41-21 ATS record in non-conference action. The line from the oddsmakers perspective is probably right, but not the outcome, with Tennessee covering.

NFL Football Free Pick- Tennessee -3 at Pinnacle Sports

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