NFL Picks: Week 2 Point Spreads & Totals Movement

Kevin Stott

Thursday, September 17, 2015 11:01 PM GMT

With the weekend coming up, let’s take a look at the Sides and Totals movements for the 16 NFL games for Week 2, including both lines from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year.

Let's also look at their Advanced Lines, released Tuesdays or Wednesdays before the previous week’s games have even started. And unlike Week 1 where there were literally months to think about and to bet into the week’s lines, Week 2 provides the customary week of preparation and firing time and has seen a more balanced mix of action, especially in the Totals markets, where Under action saw 12 of the 14 week’s lines bet down in Week 1. Here’s what’s happened up to Thursday in the Week 2 NFL games along with some main player Injury reminders as well as a couple of NFL picks against two of the theoretical bottom five teams in the league.

 

NFL Week 2 Opening and Current Odds, Totals, Game Thumbnail Sketch Previews
Thursday, September 17, 2015
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Site: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT [UK: Friday, September 18—01:30]
TV: CBS/NFL Network
NFL Games of the Year Point Spread: Broncos -1 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Advanced Line Spread: Chiefs PK (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Sept. 9)
Current Point Spread: Chiefs -3 -120
Total Open: 46
Total Current: 42½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: All sportsbooks are showing -3’s with juice on the favorite Chiefs, so knowing and utilizing the Advanced Line is revealed in this game. The Total has been been down, as were most games in Week 1 and the perception Denver will now have to try to beat teams with its Defense is materializing. Until someone knocks Peyton Manning and the Broncos off their AFC West throne, prefer backing them, especially as a rare Underdog. Denver is 5-1 ATS L6 here at Arrowhead Stadium, the Broncos are 4-1 ATS in the L5 meetings overall and the Broncos were also 6-0 SU vs. AFC West in 2014 and 5-1 ATS. Note that the Broncos were 1-point favorites when this was release earlier in the Summer.

NFL Pick: Broncos +3 Even (William Hill)

 

Sunday, September 20, 2015
Houston Texans vs. Carolina Panthers
Time: 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT [UK: Sunday, September 20—18:00]
Site: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: CBS, Directv 706
Advanced Point Spread: Panthers -2 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spread: Panthers -3 everywhere but -3½ Pinnacle
Total Open: 41 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 39½
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: This game has also gotten Under money, and you wonder if that will be the trend all season—early Sharp-Wiseguy money on the Under, with Totals 1 to 2+ points less than the Openers in most games. The big news here is that Houston Head Coach Bill O’Brien has named Ryan Mallett his starting QB here for Week 2, so you better do some situps and pushups as you may be named Houston’s starting QB somewhere down the line this season. The Under seems like the logical look here on Sunday afternoon in the Tar Heel State.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Time: 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT [UK: Sunday, September 20—18:00]
Site: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
TV: CBS, Directv 711
Advanced Point Spread: Saints -7 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spreads: Saints -9½ and -10
Total Open: 48½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 47
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: The Point Spread movement is toward the Saints—read anti-Buccaneers, Jameis Winston sentiments—here in their Home opener in the Big Easy while again, drift toward the Under. Games that get Over money this season may be unique in that respect and stand out even more, due to this incredibly strong trend few seem to talk about. The Buccaneers are 3-1 ATS in their L4 in New Orleans and Tampa Bay is 3-1 ATS in the L4 overall against the Saints.

 

San Francisco 49ers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Time: 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT [UK: Sunday, September 20—18:00]
Site: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
TV: FOX, Directv 713
NFL Games of the Year Point Spread: Steelers -5 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Advanced Point Spread: Steelers -7 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spreads: Steelers -5½ and -6
Total Open: 44 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 45½
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: A Total that’s actually been bet up? Must be a reaction to the Steelers porous Defense combined with San Francisco heading east and playing in a Time Zone 3 Hours ahead. Both Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Martavis Bryant are still Suspended for this one. The 49ers are a respectable 5-2 ATS the L7 against Pittsburgh.

 

Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings
Time: 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT [UK: Sunday, September 20—18:00]
Site: TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota
TV: FOX, Directv 710
Advanced Point Spread: Vikings -2½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spreads: Vikings -2½ and -3
Total Open: 44 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 44
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: Little movement overall in the the Total and this one’s a tough call and it seems bettors need to see more from both teams. The Vikings are 6-2 ATS the L8 overall vs. Detroit and Minnesota is 4-1 ATS the L5 here at TCF Bank Stadium, but QB Teddy Bridgewater and RB Adrian Peterson looked bad against the 49ers in Week 1. Both games last year went Under (20, 30 points) the Total.

NFL Pick: Under 44 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

 

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Time: 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT [UK: Sunday, September 20—18:00]
Site: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, New York
TV: CBS, Directv 705
Advanced Point Spread: Patriots -2½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spread: Patriots -1 everywhere but -1½ Station Casinos
Total Open: 46 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 44½ (5Dimes) and 45
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: Tom Brady has been so good against the Bills and so good against the AFC East that potential Buffalo bettors are tentative here, even after an impressive mini-upset over Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Week 1. And with New England Head Coach Bill Belichick (152-113-5 ATS) so good at preparing for young QBs—the Bills Tyrod Taylor, making his 2nd NFL Regular Season start—backing the Super Bowl champions in a huge divisional game while they’re still mad (Deflategate) and in a game in which they have Brady, when so many thought the Patriots signal caller would be Suspended, seems wise, especially giving just 1 slim point. We will all see how good Buffalo and its Defense is here against Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski and WR duo Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. Bills RB LeSean McCoy is listed as Probable.

NFL Pick: Patriots PK -120 (5Dimes)

 

Arizona Cardinals vs. Chicago Bears 
Time: 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT [UK: Sunday, September 20—18:00]
Site: Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
TV: FOX, Directv 709
Advanced Point Spread: Cardinals -3 Even (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spreads: Cardinals -1½ and -2
Total Open: 45 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 46½ 
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: Some Over money, but a hard read from both the Totals and Sides perspective. Not too much more to say about this one.

 

Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
Time: 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT [UK: Sunday, September 20—18:00]
Site: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
TV: CBS, Directv 708
Advanced Point Spread: Browns -4 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spreads: PK to Titans -2 (The Greek)
Total Open: 45 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 41½ 
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: A big Under game and a massive fluctuation—Browns -4 to Titans -2 in one place (The Greek) today (Thursday)—from the Advanced Line and the visiting Titans will likely close as favorites by Sunday with Cleveland having so many issues at QB with starter Josh McCown (Concussion) and backup Johnny Manziel (Elbow) both nursing injuries. Trend-wise, the Titans are 4-1 ATS L5 vs. the Browns in Cleveland and with Rookie Marcus Mariota and some momentum, the visitors are the lean and worth a pick here as the Browns may be bad-bad this season.

NFL Pick: Titans PK (MGM Mirage)

 

San Diego Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Time: 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT [UK: Sunday, September 20—18:00]
Site: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV: CBS, Directv 707
Advanced Point Spread: Bengals -3½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spread: Bengals -3 and -3½
Total Open: 45½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 46½ to 47½
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: Some Over and Bengals movement but with San Diego and QB Philip Rivers are 4-1 ATS the L5 overall against the Bengals, this could be closer than some think although San Diego’s Body Clocks (PDT) will be 3 hours behind Cincinnati’s (EDT) in a game played in the Eastern Time Zone. Lean to the Cats, but only at -3 and not at -3½.

 

St. Louis Rams vs. Washington Redskins
Time: 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT [UK: Sunday, September 20—18:00]
Site: FedEx Field, Landover, Maryland
TV: FOX, Directv 714
Advanced Point Spread: Rams -2½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spread: Rams -3½ everywhere
Total Open: 41½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 41 to 41½ 
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: Some love (and money) for the Rams and the translation here is that it’s probably a combination of mistrust for the Redskins and knowledge the rams are pretty good against Washington. The last meeting between these two teams was last season and was here at FedEx Field where St. Louis shut out the Redskins, 19-0 as 3-point favorites and the Rams are 6-1 ATS in their L7 vs. Washington and 4-1 ATS in their L5 trips here. Redskins WR DeSean Jackson is out, so taking the Rams makes sense although the -3 with the heavy juice written about yesterday has evaporated. A big game for each team’s heads. 

 

Atlanta Falcons vs. New York Giants 
Time: 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT [UK: Sunday, September 20—18:00]
Site: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: FOX, Directv 712
Advanced Point Spread: Giants -2½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spread: Giants -2½ everywhere
Total Open: 51 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 51 to 51½ 
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: More trickling on a Total Over, so the theory only Unders would be banged should be scrapped. That lasted about 17 paragraphs and two cups of coffee. The sophisticated and professional sports bettor is selective, brother. Atlanta WR Julio Jones (Probable) is expected to go here and his Falcons are an extremely impressive 6-2 ATS in their L8 here at MetLife Stadium against New York. Should be high-scoring.

 

Baltimore Ravens vs. Oakland Raiders
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT [UK: Sunday, September 20—21:05]
Site: O.co Coliseum, Oakland, California
TV: CBS, Directv 716
Advanced Point Spread: Ravens -4 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spreads: Ravens -6 and -6½ and one 7 (5Dimes)
Total Open: 43½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 43
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: This number may rise to -7 by game-time at some sportsbooks with the SuperBook and Pinnacle at (Baltimore) -6½ and 5 Dimes actually posting the first -7 on the game, with +110 juice on the Ravens. Baltimore is 9-2 ATS the L11 overall against Oakland. If you plan on betting the Ravens best shop around and get it under -7 as there are still -6’s (MGM Mirage, Station Casinos, SIA, The Greek) and plenty of 6½’s still out there.

 

Miami Dolphins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Time: 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT [UK: Sunday, September 20—21:05]
Site: Everbank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
TV: CBS, Directv 715
Advanced Point Spread: Dolphins -6 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spreads: Dolphins -6 to -7 (5Dimes, +115)
Total Open: 41½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 41 to 41½
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: Some movement Miami’s way, and last season, the Dolphins beat the Jaguars, 27-13, covering the 7-point spread here in Jacksonville. The Dolphins are 3-0 ATS L3 as well as 3-0 ATS L3 on the Road here at EverBank Field in J-Town and with Free Agent-signee (Broncos) TE Julius Thomas is out with an Injury (Hand) for the Jaguars and the Fish maybe swimming in the toughest division in the NFL (AFC East), with all teams off to 1-0 starts, backing Miami seems prudent as the Jaguars are still in the Bottom 5 in the league. Look for Dolphins Rookie WR DeVante Parker (Louisville) to feature more here and for TE Cameron Jordan (8 receptions, 73 yards) to be the clutch-catch guy.

NFL Pick: Dolphins -6 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

 

Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Time: 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT [UK: Sunday, September 20—18:25]
Site: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
TV: FOX, Directv 717
NFL Games of the Year Point Spread: Eagles -2½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Advanced Point Spread: Eagles -4 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spreads: Eagles -4½ (MGM Mirage) to -5
Total Open: 4½1 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 55 everywhere but 55½ at The Greek
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: You can see the respect for the Eagles rise from when the Westgate SuperBook first released a line for this game early this summer to now, where the Eagles are solid 5-point favorites over their bitter rival Dallas. This likely won’t go over 5, and may see some money on the Cowboys from now (Thursday) until Sunday, although logic says the overall handle from now on in will be mixed, and any line movement will probably be ½ point the Eagles way (down to 4½), although most may stay at 5. Dallas WR Dez Bryant (Broken Bone in Foot) is out here while Eagles RB DeMarco Murray will be playing against the (America’s) team that let him go via Free Agency. The Cowboys are 3-0 ATS in their L4 here in Philadelphia and Dallas is 3-1 ATS in the L4 meetings overall with Philadelphia. Expect a high-scoring, heavy-passing duel between gun-slinging QBs Tony Romo and Sam Bradford.

NFL Pick: Over 55 (Pinnacle)

 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT [UK: Monday, September 21—01:30]
Site: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: NBC
NFL Games of the Year Point Spread: Packers -3 Even (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Advanced Point Spread: Packers -3 Even (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spread: Packers -3½ everywhere
Total Open: 48 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 48½ (MGM Mirage) and 49
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: So far, money on the Packers, and anyone looking for a -3 may be hard pressed to find one or have to pay some juice to by the ½ point. It’s hard to see to much love from here on in on the Seahawks, with SS Kam Chancellor still holding out and the Packers obviously wanting some cheddar-y revenge for the way that NFC Championship Game in Seattle ended last season. Green Bay WR Jordy Nelson (Knee) is out for the entire season , so partner in crime WR Randall Cobb will have to carry more weight for Green Bay. The Packers are 3-1-1 ATS in their L5 against the Seahawks here at Lambeau Field. Make sure that you don’t miss this movie.
Monday, September 21, 2015

 

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET/5:30 p.m. PT [UK: Tuesday, September 22—01:30]
Site: Lucas Oil Field, Indianapolis, Indiana
TV: ESPN/WatchESPN, Directv 206
NFL Games of the Year Point Spread: Colts -8 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Advanced Point Spread: Colts -9½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Point Spread: Colts -7 everywhere with -7½ at 5Dimes
Total Open: 48 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Total Current: 48½ (MGM Mirage) and 49
The Point Spread-Totals Skinny: Significant movement downward from the Advanced Line (-9½) to now (-7) and with New York winning in Week 1 (Browns) and Indianapolis looking disappointing and losing (Bills), the perceptions shape that numerical reality. Colts WR TY Hilton is likely out here with a bruised Left Knee while Jets QB Geno Smith is definitely out , although this team is better off with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB. The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their L8 overall against the Colts and New York is an impressive 11-4 ATS as a Road underdog on Monday Night Football lifetime against Indianapolis, although QB Andrew Luck and the Colts are 8-3 ATS as a Home Favorite under the Monday night spotlights. A good game to watch and maybe take the Jets if the number rises.

Fade The Bottom Feeders Week 2 NFL Picks: Tennessee Titans PK over Cleveland Browns (MGM Mirage), Miami Dolphins -6 NFL odds over Jacksonville Jaguars (Pinnacle)