NFL Picks: Week 2 Jets-Colts Monday Night Football Best Bets

Doug Upstone

Sunday, September 20, 2015 5:20 PM GMT

Sunday, Sep. 20, 2015 5:20 PM GMT

Week 2 of the NFL season concludes on Monday night and the sportsbooks have tossed us some betting odds that at the very least are cause for consternation for those placing sports picks.

Props From  5Dimes | BetOnline | BookMaker | Bovada | Heritage | GTbets | WagerWeb | SportsBetting | BetDSI

Jets To Score First +140 (best line at BetOnline)
Colts To Score First -155 (best line at 5Dimes)
Longerst FG 44½ Ov -115 (best line at betDSI)
Longerst FG Un +100 (best line at Bookmaker)
Highest Score 1st Half -110 (best line at 5Dimes)
High Score 2H + OT -105 (best line at BetOnline)
1st Score TD -155  (best line at SportsBetting)
FG or Safety +145  (best line at 5Dimes)

Are the Indianapolis Colts overrated after making it to the AFC championship game last season or was last week an abomination at Buffalo and they quickly rebound? And what about the New York Jets, can that strong running game abuse what appears to be a soft Indy defensive line and can the defense pressure Andrew Luck as well as the Bills did?

Time to examine the best bets for Monday night.

 

The Jets Have Chance to Cover
Most NFL handicappers are presuming a raucous crowd at the Lucas Oil Stadium and an angry bunch of Colts will run roughshod over the Jets. This thinking is understandable, because a lot is expected of Indianapolis this season and realistically, Gang Green is not supposed to be in their stratosphere.

But here is the deal, the Colts offensive and defensive lines were shredded by Buffalo. Luck had no time to throw and Frank Gore had zero space to run. While the Jets might not be as talented as Buffalo's defense overall, they are not exactly paupers either.

New head coach Todd Bowles likes his defense to bring pressure and he has a secondary that is more than good enough to play with the Colts pass catchers, especially without T.Y. Hilton, who figures miss this game with an injury.

Andre Johnson is a massive downgrade for Hilton and rookie receiver Donte Moncrief may be too raw to go against a secondary that features CB Darrelle Revis. Defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers is likely to call plenty of blitzes against Luck, who was 10 of 24 when blitzed against the Bills last Sunday.

I will either be right with this NFL pick to take the Flyboys with seven or way off. I'll take my chances against the NFL odds.

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If the Jets Cover, then the Total has to be.......
New York seemingly is not built for shootouts, being more focused on running the ball and using quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick in the pass action passing game. If the Jets fall behind and have to play catch-up, Fitzpatrick in a known turnover machine which raises the possibilities of an Over.

However, if you take the totals odds of 46.5 at Heritage at face value, that suggests Indianapolis should win approximately 27-20 and the Colts are 59-32 UNDER when they allow 15 to 21 points, which has me thinking Under.

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Top Player Prop Bets
Besides the side and total action, we have other ways to win on Monday, which includes prop wagers to use in your portfolio.

The first I have is - Luck Under 279.5 passing yards - which I can see happening. Again, if I am correct the Jets can wreak some havoc with the Indianapolis offensive line and this will mean shorter throws and a lack of big plays out of Indy. This would include more check downs to backs and the Jets are good tacklers to limit extra yardage. I can see Luck getting close, but ultimately falling short.

I can foresee a big emphasis by the Colts wanting to run the ball to take the pressure off of Luck and for NFL picks, I will side - Frank Gore Over 52.5 yards rushing - because of this.

Lastly, Brandon Marshall gets two calls from me on Monday with yardage and catches. Marshall was targeted nine times last week and made six catches for 62 yards. With his large frame, he's an ideal target for Fitzpatrick when needing a first down and can be very effective outside the numbers being able to use his size to shield defender and catch balls if properly thrown high, where he can out-jump the opposing player. This leads me to take - Over 62.5 receiving yards and Over 5.5 catches - for Marshall.

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