NFL Picks: Week 17 Value Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 23, 2014 7:24 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2014 7:24 PM UTC

The regular season is concluding and I have enjoyed sharing another season of profitable NFL picks with you. As we know, there are more losers than winners against the betting odds.

It is makes sense to relish every positive result at the end of the season against the sportsbooks which places you in a select group when it comes to beating the NFL odds. In this final edition for the regular season, I will try and go out in style as an NFL football handicapper with a 3-0 record.


Lower Scoring In Green Bay Sunday
Though Green Bay is averaging 41.1 points per game at Lambeau Field, they will not come anywhere close to that against Detroit. The Lions have been one of the best defensive teams in the NFL all season and with the pass rush they can generate and how their ball-hawking secondary has performed, they can limit the Packers, much in the same fashion Buffalo did.

While the Green Bay defense is hardly elite, Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense has mostly floundered all year and they are averaging 20.1 points a game versus opposing teams permitting 23.7 points per game.

With what is at stake to win the division and snag a bye week, as compared to being on the road for a Wild Card contest, look for the recent 6-2 UNDER trend to continue when these two NFC North squads do battle.

Free NFL Picks: Under 48 at The Greek

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San Diego’s Weapons are the Difference at K.C.
The Chiefs lack of playmakers has placed them in the crosshairs of missing the playoffs. Kansas City has to win and hope Baltimore and Houston both lose which seems unlikely given their opponents and playing at home.

It is well documented the Chiefs do not have touchdown from the wide receiver position this season and other than Jamaal Charles, has no other truly explosive player on offense.

Thus, against better competition and playing in front an injury-ravaged offensive line, quarterback Alex Smith has nowhere to turn.

San Diego’s injury plight is essentially the same as the Chiefs, with the offensive line in the constant state of flux, yet a battered Philip Rivers has his team in position with a victory to return to the postseason.

Rivers can count on receivers Keenan Allen, Malcolm Floyd and Eddie Royal to make explosive plays and let’s not forget Mr. Reliable Antonio Gates.

With K.C. 0-7 ATS having dropped four of five and San Diego having won its last two visits into K.C., the Chargers play-makers are the difference.

Free NFL Picks: San Diego +3 at 5Dimes

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Atlanta Wins and Covers Wretched NFC South
Carolina and Atlanta both know they have been woeful all year, but they did not make up the rules, the team with the best record in the division makes the playoffs.

Look for that to be the Falcons and here is why. Atlanta is by far the more effective offensive team, scoring 25.2 PPG and is even better at the Georgia Dome at 29.8. Carolina has their moments on offensive, but on the year tallies 20.3 PPG versus teams which allow 23.1 PPG.

Atlanta surrenders the most yards in the NFL, but consider this key stat, the Falcons are 12th in yards per points allowed (15.9), while Carolina’s overall better defense is 26th in YPPA at 13.8, meaning Atlanta improves when the enemy is in their territory.

Lastly, Atlanta is 14-5 and 12-6-1 ATS when Carolina visits and this year the Birds are 5-0 and 4-1 ATS in division action. (1-9 SU against everyone else)

The Falcons are one of my top value NFL picks and soar to cover.

Free NFL Picks: Atlanta -4 at BetOnline

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