NFL Picks Week 17: Keep Your Pockets Padded With Our Top Bets

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 29, 2015 7:43 PM GMT

Join as we break down the early available NFL odds and find the best value on the board as of now. Get our top selections and cash in your NFL picks this week.

Last week's Value Plays was our fifth winning week out of six and we will once again attempt to finish strong. While the selections are not plentiful for NFL picks, we have three that fit the same criteria we have used all season versus the NFL odds. Here is to hoping the start of 2016 starts how we finished the end of 2015.

 

Houston (-6) Wraps Up AFC South Crown
I actually had this game on my list before the actual spread was released by sportsbooks. Despite a plethora of quarterbacks playing for Houston, they have held their own and can win division title with a victory. If semi-regular starter Brian Hoyer is set to play after concussion, he will get the call, if not, Brandon Weeden looks just fine. With Jacksonville having lost four of five and permitting 33.5 points a game in those defeats, not sure what their motivation is on the road against team they are 1-6-1 ATS when facing.

 

Look for UNDER in Empire State Encounter
All the pressure is on the New York Jets to win, while Buffalo will be completely stress-free and try to spoil their playoff aspirations. With Rex Ryan as coach, he will look to make QB Ryan Fitzpatrick play as lousy as he did with the Bills with variable defenses and pressure. With Buffalo catching points, they seem well suited for totals action and are 12-4 UNDER when the underdog. In addition, when a home team like the Bills have lost four or five of their last six games, in the last two weeks of the regular season, in the past three years they are 21-6 UNDER with average total score 38.9 total points. With present total at 42.5, like our chances.

 

St. Louis (-3.5) Closes With Flourish
I have been sour on St. Louis most of the season. However, I like how this team is finishing at 3-0 SU and ATS and while a .500 season is hardly noteworthy, a 4-0 finish could mean something if they find a quality quarterback heading into next year. I mistakenly thought San Francisco has some fire left last week, but they have been outscored by 13 points a game in dropping last three and first-year coach Jim Tomsula is already dealing with job security issues, which nobody is fazed by. With road road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points, who average 4.9 to 5.4 yards per play, are matched against defenses who allow 5.8 yards per play, past the midpoint of the season, they are 30-8 ATS. Rams by 10.