NFL Picks: Week 16 NFL Value Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 17, 2013 2:49 PM GMT

NFL Week 16 puts us one week closer to the season's end, so here are three NFL picks which we think should hold value for your sports betting this week. Can we improve our winning record?

This week is the last group of games before Christmas and the picks are thinning out like the gifts on the shelves at stores. The NFL odds are never easy to beat, but I am 13-3-2 with my NFL picks here at SBR Forum (24-14-3 ATS for the season) lately and look to unwrap even more winning value plays.

NFL Picks: Week 16 Betting Odds Report

Houston, We Have a Problem

This season, there are teams that don’t show up to play and then there are the Houston Texans. Thought to be a true Super Bowl contender, Houston is zeroing in on the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft with their abysmal record.

It is not outside the realm of possibility the Texans could be 0-14, outscoring San Diego 17-0 in the fourth quarter to defeat the Chargers in the season opener and having to go to overtime at home to top Tennessee.

While there is no doubt they have incurred tough, close losses, every NFL football handicapper knows Houston is 3-11 ATS, which shows how far below expectations they continue to play.

Next up is Denver, who played a sordid contest in the 27-20 setback to San Diego. I don’t believe we can count on Peyton Manning to have another mediocre outing and given a reprieve to earn the top seed, the Broncos do not blow this chance and win handily against the NFL odds.

NFL Football Free Pick- Denver -10

[gameodds]16/227100/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Philadelphia Flusters Chicago at The Linc.

One of the hardest aspects of making sports picks in the NFL is understanding the week to week nature of the league. One week you are kings of the city and the next, fans want to overturn the entire roster.

Philadelphia fit the latter in Minnesota as they were pathetic in every facet of football; including head coach Chip Kelly, apparently having Oregon Ducks coaching flashbacks, making calls like he was facing Washington State, not the Vikings on the road.

As worthless as the Eagles looked, if they win two more games, they are the NFC East champions and enter the tournament.

Like Philadelphia, Chicago has dynamic offensive players and its receivers are tall enough to look like monuments. Nonetheless, Jay Cutler is back, and like Fox Sports 1, that is both good and bad at the same time.

Granted, the Eagles are 2-12 ATS at home since last year, but the number is manageable and Da Bears are 10-31 ATS in December road games.

NFL Football Free Pick- Philadelphia -3

[gameodds]16/227096/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Bengals Bounce Back

A fairly convincing case could be made Cincinnati is just not an elite team. They have several outstanding individual parts, but like the movie “A Big Wedding”, the sum of the pieces does not always work. The Bengals had every reason to give their best at Pittsburgh, yet in less than 15 minutes they trailed 21-0.

Sportsbooks sent out the Bengals as just a touchdown choice at home, where they are 6-0 SU and ATS, clobbering the opposition by 16 points a contest.

Minnesota is off a stunning beatdown of Philadelphia and could have Adrian Peterson back. However, I cannot overlook Cincy’s play at home and the Vikings rank 0-7 ATS record off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog.

NFL Football Free Pick- Cincinnati -7

[gameodds]16/227099/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]