NFL Picks: Week 16 NFL Upsets

Nila Amerova

Friday, December 20, 2013 7:17 PM GMT

The NFL regular season is hurtling towards the finish line, only a couple of weeks remain on the books. So join us as we rundown through Week 16 NFL betting lines in search of good bets on bad teams. 

Miami Dolphins -2.5 (-120) @ Buffalo Bills +2.5 (+100)

Analysis: The Buffalo Bills (5-9, 3-4 home) take on the Miami Dolphins (8-6, 4-3 away) on Sunday, looking to extend their winning streak to two in a row following a 27-20 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. But the Dolphins are coming off a big win over the Patriots, a win that has earned them favourable NFL odds for this clash.

Clearly, sportsbooks expect it shouldn’t be a problem for the Dolphins to underscore it with a more straightforward win over an NFL straggler such as the Bills. But the Bills are deceivingly bad. In fact, they are better than their record suggests. The team is young and needs to go through the maturation process before they can realise their full potential. They should be able to give the Dolphins a run for their money.

Besides, there is typically a hangover effect that teams must contend with following a big win such as the win over the Patriots was. And more often than not, teams can fall flat in such instances. On the chance that this will prove to be the case and with the Bills having home advantage to boot, the balance tips in favour of the home side in our opinion and that’s why they are our value NFL Pick in this match.

NFL Picks: Bills to win straight up

[gameodds]16/227092/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Tennessee Titans -5.0 (-110) @ Jacksonville Jaguars +5.0 (-110)

Analysis: The Titans (5-9, 3-4 away) are the road favourites despite their poor season overall and rather modest away record. That has everything to do with the hosts, who boast an even worse account across the board. Jaguars (4-10, 1-6 home) have been a nightmare this season for sportsbooks, ridiculously insolvent in just about every aspect of NFL betting

Now, it’s worth mentioning the Jaguars did beat the Titans earlier this season, what marked their first win since opening day. And following that victory they did manage to clinch three more unlikely wins, twice over Houston and one over Cleveland. But they are coming off a loss to Buffalo Bills last week, a thump back down to reality in more ways than one.

On the flipside, the Titans strike a rather weak pose as the favourites here with a three-game losing streak ahead of their date in Jacksonville. But they did face some of the big boys in Denver and Indianapolis and there can’t be any shame in those losses.

On balance, this appears to be a clash between two of the worst outfits in the NFL this season. As such, this match could go either way theoretically. But if we there were a balance to tip the scale either way it would be the Jaguars’ atrocious home form that boasts just one solitary win tipping the scale towards a road win for the Titans. So we’re backing the Titans to win straight up at -230 NFL odds at Bet365.  Because neither team has much offense to speak of this could be a close game and therefore we’re backing the Jaguars to cover the five-point NFL betting spread as our additional NFL pick.

NFL Picks: Titans to win straight up; Jaguars to cover

[gameodds]16/227101/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]