NFL Picks Week 16: False Favorites & Top Dogs

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 16, 2014 7:58 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2014 7:58 PM UTC

The NFL odds are as tricky as ever this time of year and NFL football handicappers like me have to be on top of our game to show a profit against the sportsbooks with their releases.

Fortunately, we have enjoyed a pretty good season with a 25-18-2 record doing this article and accompanying video and will continue with two false favorites and one top underdog against the NFL odds.


Miami a Terrible Home Favorite
The Dolphins were bushwhacked by New England 41-13, leveling their record at 7-7. Under coach Joe Philbin, Miami is 22-24 and after another shabby season, Philbin might be shown the door, as the Fins will have one playoff appearance in the past 12 years.

Among the displeasure with Miami is they are strictly –Play Against- material for NFL picks as non-division home favorites the last 11 years with an 8-21 spread record.

Next, let’s bring in Minnesota who is 7-1 ATS since Oct. 12, including four straight covers. The Vikings are also a sweet 10-2 ATS in December the last three seasons, which all ads up to making the Dolphins a false favorite.

NFL False Favorite – Miami


Favored St. Louis Might Have Just Been Exposed
After playing solid football for a month, St. Louis and quarterback Shaun Hill played awful versus Arizona in a 12-6 home loss. The Rams defense still shined, but when offense could not establish the run on early downs and was forced to pass, the offensive line was a sieve and Hill had zero poise in the pocket.

The New York Giants are not very good and in the last three weeks they have faced quarterbacks Blake Bortles, Zach Mettenberger, Jake Locker, Colt McCoy and RG3, who are not exactly in Mr. (Aaron) Rodgers neighborhood and neither is Hill. Nevertheless, this has allowed the Giants to build confidence and they can still rush the passer, which could affect Hill again.

Toss in the Rams have nobody to slow rookie sensation Odell Beckham Jr. and it is understandable why St. Louis has been a diminishing favorite in this NFC contest.

NFL False Favorite – St. Louis


The Jets, Yes Really!
How in the world could I be suggesting to use the New York Jets with sports picks against New England, who is the best team in the NFL at this moment?

I have to admit it’s not easy, but there are reasons to believe. Start with coach Rex Ryan has always made a big deal about the Patriots. It held more substance when New York was at least competing with Bill Belichick’s squad, but a closer look at the numbers finds four of the past five meetings have been determined by three points or less, with spreads of seven points or higher on four occasions, just like this one.

No doubt Ryan realizes this is the end of line as the Flyboys head coach and he still has the respect of the players in the locker room and with being a Jets home game, they provide their best effort and keep the final score in single digits.

NFL Underdog with Bite – N.Y. Jets

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