NFL Picks: Week 16 Fades & Games to Avoid

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 17, 2013 4:35 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2013 4:35 PM UTC

Last week, ended up pretty accurate on what NFL contests to stay away from as a couple could have gone either way. In reviewing the NFL odds for this Sunday, a trio of games standout to fade and could well cause all the joy of getting Christmas socks or a tie for Dec. 25 by choosing either side.

Read our Week 16 Betting Odds Report

Check out our Week 16 Value Picks

AFC South Confrontation Should be a Yawner

Because of Jake Locker’s injury, Tennessee was forced to go with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their starting quarterback, which is like an office Christmas party, maybe good or maybe bad. Fitzpatrick brought the Titans back from a 17-point deficit to tie Arizona, only to not unexpectedly toss a key interception which led to Tennessee’s third straight loss.

After going five weeks with only five turnovers, Jacksonville had four in the loss to Buffalo, including two in the red zone. The Jaguars are playing better, but not good enough to be close to being listed as a home favorite by sportsbooks.

NFL football handicappers know these nothing games are hard to choose for making NFL picks. The simple answer is to find determine the outright winner since they are 15-1 ATS since 2006. But who will it be?

Potential Rematch Could Loom in AFC Playoffs

Indianapolis and Kansas City are in the postseason, it is just a matter of who goes where and when. The Colts know they will have at least one home game in January, while the Chiefs can only hope they could catch such good fortune.

What makes this a challenge for making NFL picks is what does either or both teams bring to this contest. It is not out the realm of possibility they could meet again in two weeks, this could suggest the game plans on offense and defense might be more vanilla the normal.

Coach Andy Reid seldom cared about winning once he knew his team’s position for the playoffs and it would seem unlikely (though possible); Indianapolis could reach a two-seed in the AFC. It might be best to sit this one out.

Study up on our NFC Future Betting Odds

NFC Non-Contenders Have Coaches Still Pushing Them

Jeff Fisher has always been a master motivator. Though St. Louis was 3-6, he was not going to going to let them cave in and the Rams have knocked off three playoff teams (Indianapolis and New Orleans) or contenders (Chicago) in their past five tries. Fisher will sell his team on the importance of finishing 8-8 with two more victories and having that be a building block for 2014.

Tampa Bay’s Greg Schiano has another motive to inspire his troops to victory, future employment as the Buccaneers head coach.

After a disastrous 0-8 start, the Bucs are 4-2 SU and ATS, with the two defeats to top-drawer outfits in Carolina and San Francisco. From a talent perspective Tampa Bay is very close to St. Louis and is not overmatched at the quarterback position. The NFL betting odds have the Buccaneers at more then a field goal underdog, nonetheless, as long as they do not fall into bad habits of the past (2-10 ATS in December), they could have a chance.

Too much uncertainty in my opinion for a convincing call either way. 

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