Last week I was right on only one leg of our underdog parlay, however for those of you who took them as straight bets, you’re welcome for the small profit. I am back once again with my top two moneyline underdogs, and both have great value heading into the second to last week of the season.
Taking slight underdogs and parlaying them together creates a ton of value without increasing the risk too much. There is always risk in any parlay, but keeping it to two teams on the moneyline price can increase our NFL Odds from the straight +250 to +350 and beyond. This week’s potential payout is +362 if both of our dogs win outright.
The Browns had a thrilling game this past week, but came up just short against the visiting Bears. Now they head into New York for a game with the Jets, and the Browns are only slight underdogs, with a moneyline price of +115. With Jason Campbell playing well under center for the Browns, I could easily see Cleveland coming in and stealing one, even against the Jets’ defense.
Over the last three weeks, the Jets are giving up almost 27 points per game, and even though the Jets are pretty healthy right now, their offense is so bad that Cleveland could win this game and only score 20 points. Cleveland’s defense has been good this season as well.
I understand the Browns have been bad on the road, and I have taken that into account. Cleveland is only 2-19 SU in their last 21 road games, dating back three seasons. However Cleveland is evolving with every passing week this season, and it’s mostly been for the better. New York is going to have some trouble defending Cleveland’s passing game, aka Josh Gordon, and I see a nice upset here for Cleveland in our NFL picks.
Patriots vs. Ravens
Another road underdog I like this week is the Patriots in Baltimore. The NFL Odds are very similar to the Browns and Jets, as the Pats are around +115 in the moneyline this week. Parlaying the Pats in the late game with the Browns should have some great odds, and it will increase a 2-team parlay payout by more than a third.
The Patriots have beaten Baltimore in eight of their last 11 meetings, and even though the Ravens have been very good at home this season, I see them slipping up here to New England. Despite losing Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots are still very dangerous, and I doubt the Ravens’ offense can keep up, even at home. The Ravens rank 25th in home passing this season, and they rank only 31st in rushing at home.
New England’s road defense is fair this season, and even though they are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games, I see them breaking that slump on Sunday. The Pats have a better run game than they ever could have imagined over their last several matchups with the Ravens, and even though the Ravens play good defense at home, they are still beatable. The Patriots have won and covered in two of their last three trips to Baltimore, and I see them winning outright to keep their hopes of a first round bye alive.
My Pick: 2-team parlay: Browns +115 & Patriots +115 (+362)