Friday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
It’s the final day of the workweek, Christmas is right around the corner, and the NFL Odds for Week 16 have almost all settled down. Let’s take a look at where the odds have gone since the beginning of the week, and take a look at a few of the games that might not have lines settled yet.
The NFL odds for this AFC West matchup favor the Chargers anywhere from -9 ½ to -11, however even though there is still some discrepancies in the odds, the Chargers seem to be at the very least -10 favorites this week, with a total of 50 ½ points. The Raiders have been horrendous on defense over their last three games, as they have given up over 41 points per game in their last three. With their defense collapsing, Oakland stands little chance going into San Diego, no matter the line. The Chargers are playing well on defense at home recently, and their running game has picked up a ton.
Steelers vs. Packers
We finally have official word that Aaron Rodgers is once again not going to play for the Packers, and the opening NFL Odds for this game favor Green Bay by only -3, with a total of 45 points. This line just came out several hours ago, because until today, Rodgers’ status was still in the air. The Steelers could have great value here, however it remains to be seen whether their defense will make the trip to the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Some sportsbooks also have the NFL Odds at -2 ½, but before Sunday morning I would expect these odds to be settled still around a field goal. However the total is where I might look for value, because both of these offenses are still capable of both being in the mid 20s by the end of the game.[gameodds]16/227105/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]
Thursday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
There aren’t any more Thursday night games in the NFL, and because of that, let’s spend Thursday morning looking deeper into Sunday’s NFL Odds, and see where the value may be hiding.
Raiders vs. Chargers
San Diego is also still fighting for their playoff lives after the Ravens’ win over those above mentioned Lions, and at 7-7 SU, they have to win and get lucky this week to put themselves in the picture for Week 17. The NFL Odds sure think they could win SU, as the Chargers are -10 home favorites, with a total of 50 ½. The Raiders’ defense was playing well, however they have given up an average of 41 points per game over their last three games. San Diego’s offense should roll in this game, and value could be opening up. There are sportsbooks with the line currently sitting at -9 ½.
This may be Baltimore’s biggest challenge of the season, because even though they don’t have to win this week, they could really use it to pad their wildcard slot. They still have an outside shot at the AFC North title, however they would need Minnesota to upset the Bengals in Cincinnati this week. The NFL Odds have Baltimore as a -2 ½ home favorite here, with a total of 45 points. New England needs this win to keep their chances of a first round bye in focus, and with a moneyline price of +115, it’s hard for me to not like New England here. They should be able to match the Ravens defensively, and with Baltimore’s lack of a run game, the Pats may have the edge. Aquib Talib will be glued onto Torrey Smith, and the Ravens may have no one else to turn to.[gameodds]16/227106/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]
Wednesday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
It’s already the middle if the week, another December holiday is around the corner, and with no more Thursday NFL games, we are left to continue looking ahead to Sunday’s NFL Odds. There aren’t as many home underdogs this week as there were in Weeks 14 and 15, however there are some notable ones that need looking into.
Dolphins vs. Bills
Miami got their much-needed staple win last week, and are probably still riding high after besting the Patriots in Miami. This week they travel to up-state New York to play the Bills, and Buffalo comes in as a +2 ½ home underdog, with a total of 43 points. Buffalo has faired much better at home this season, and their young offense has been playing well lately with the exception of Week 14 in Tampa. However what this game and these NFL Odds will boil down to is whether or not Miami can play in the elements this week. The weather is calling for cold and rain throughout Sunday in Buffalo.
This divisional battle is the biggest game of two teams who are not currently in the playoffs right now, because the Redskins could end Dallas’ season this week in Washington. The NFL Odds for this one also have the Redskins as underdogs of +2 ½, but this total is set at 53 ½. Kirk Cousins played pretty well in Washington’s game a week ago, and with how bad Dallas’ defense has been, this game is going to be tough. I have to give my early lean towards Dallas, however a hedge with the Washington moneyline might not be a bad idea either. Whichever defense shows up most will win this game.
Tuesday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
After taking an opening look at several of the Week 16 NFL Odds yesterday, let’s continue where we left off, looking at the early week value (or lack thereof) for Week 16.
Cincinnati had a chance to almost guarantee themselves the AFC North title, but after losing this past week, now they have to work a little harder for it. In the NFL Odds this week, they are -7 ½ favorites against the Vikings, with a total of 48. Minnesota has been playing better recently, and even if Adrian Peterson is unable to go once again, the Vikings’ offense is so much better under Matt Cassel, it’s hard to think it’s going to mean more than a point or so in the NFL Odds. The Vikings’ defense has been playing much better against the run especially, and although it might be a blowout, the Vikings could just as easily cover here.
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Yesterday the Cards were looking dismal for this game, but only 24 hours later; some life has been breathed into them. Carson Palmer’s ankle injury is reportedly not of the high variety, and Larry Fitzgerald passed the league’s first baseline concussion test as well. These are two excellent bits of news for the Cards, as they are +10 underdogs heading into Seattle this week. As long as those two guys are ok, the Cardinals could have some really nice value this week, and with the total hovering around 44 points, this game could be a good one. I’ll keep this game in mind as we approach the end of the week, and once more news on Palmer’s and Fitzgerald’s status comes out, I’ll be sure to update you. If both play, I think the Cards at +10 may have some of the best value in the NFL picks of the week.
Monday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
Saints vs. Panthers
This NFC South divisional battle will decide who the champ from that division will be. After their loss on the road to the Rams this past week, the Saints are 10-4 SU and tied with the Panthers, who won this past week against the Jets. This week, the Panthers come in as -3 favorites, with a total of 45 ½ points. The Saints are only 1-6 ATS this season when playing on the road, which is the worst mark in the NFL. Just from this info, it would seem as if the Panthers are the team with value. At only -3, if the Saints’ road woes follow them to Charlotte, the Panthers’ defense is going to feast.
Bears vs. Eagles
Another game with some huge playoff implications this week is the Bears and Eagles from Philadelphia. The early NFL Odds have the Eagles as a -3 favorite, with a larger total of 55 ½. The Peterson-less Vikings embarrassed the Eagles this past week, while the Bears won a thriller in Cleveland in Jay Cutler’s return from injury. While the spread seems like a wash at this point in the week, the early NFL Odds for the total seem really valuable. These are two of the worst defenses in the NFL, and 55 ½ may not be even close to enough points. The over might be the best early week wager for your NFL picks on this game.
Colts vs. Chiefs
The Colts took care of the hapless Texans this past week to keep their playoff hopes alive, and this week they head into Kansas City to play the Chiefs, a team that just clinched their playoff spot. The Chiefs went into Oakland yesterday and blew out the Raiders behind five touchdowns from Jamaal Charles. The NFL Odds this week have the Chiefs as a -6 ½ home favorite, with a total of 42. While both defenses have some upside, at this point in the season, 42 may be too low for these two teams. Both are very capable of giving up some points, especially the Colts on the road. Once again, the early week NFL Odds may have more value on the total.
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
The NFL Odds for this game currently have the Seahawks as -10 favorites, with a total of 45 points. However we could easily see some early week movement in this game, and it could be northward. Carson Palmer injured his ankle and is at best questionable this week heading into Seattle. On top of him, Larry Fitzgerald is dealing with concussion symptoms after their game in Tennessee this past week, and if he misses this game, it takes away the Cards only real receiving threat. Both teams won SU in Week 15, but with the Cards’ injury issues, their playoff window may be closed even though they won this past week.