NFL Picks: Week 15 Value Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 9, 2014 7:42 PM GMT

I promised to do better with my NFL picks this past week and kept my word beating the betting odds with a winning week. With three weeks left in the regular season, time to make one final push.

Sportsbooks have made their late season adjustments and if you want to use your NFL picks on favorites, you are going to have to pay a hefty price. I have three value plays that should bring a smile to your face.

 

Cardinals  vs. Rams: St. Louis is Playing Great Football
Last week I used the Rams in this article and video for Sportsbook Review and will come right back with them. I will admit we have lost value in regards of St. Louis crossing the three-point threshold as a favorite; however I am undeterred by this as an  NFL football handicapper.

The Rams have outscored their last two opponents by 76-0 and while a case could be made Oakland and Washington are two pretty bad football teams, but if it were so easy, how come nobody else has come close to accomplishing this?

The St. Louis defense has been thoroughly dominating and the offense features a physical running game and the play-action passing game is clicking.

Arizona earned a much needed victory at home against Kansas City, but quarterback Drew Stanton has generated two touchdowns in three road starts.

The Rams roll by 10 points.

NFL Football Free Pick- St. Louis -3.5

 

Texans vs. Colts: Indianapolis Bounces Back from Mediocre Showing
Andrew Luck and the Colts offense was really scuffling at Cleveland, turning the ball over four times with two leading directly to Browns touchdowns. Though Luck would complete less than half his passes (24 for 53), midway through the third quarter Indianapolis began to have some success and came from behind to clip Cleveland 25-24.

No question the Colts were somewhat fortunate, however, there has been nothing fortunate about Indy posting an 18-6 ATS record against the NFL odds at home the past three years.

Besides Indianapolis returning to their building, I’m a big proponent of confidence and when a team knows how to defeat another with regularity, something has to alter the trend to have a different outcome.

With the Colts 12-0 SU and 8-4 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium against Houston, I view this trend continuing, especially with a Luck vs. Ryan Fitzpatrick quarterback matchup.

NFL Football Free Pick- Indianapolis -6.5 at BetOnline

 

NFC North Matchup – How Low can you Go?
The Minnesota offense just finished a three-game homestand and averaged 27.3 points per game, so why would the total in this NFC North battle plunge two digits to 42 points?

The top reason is Detroit’s No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL at 17.2 per contest. Another possibility is the Vikings away from those 10,000 nearly frozen lakes are averaging a paltry 16.8 points per game.

When doing numbers research, I found when the total moves in this number range and in this same manner the past few years, the total is 10-2 UNDER.

Finally, when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points, in a game involving two teams committing 1.25 turnovers or fewer after eight or more games inton the season and one team, Detroit in this case, had one or less turnovers in last outing, the UNDER is 24-4.

NFL Football Free Pick- Under 42.5