We failed to hit our parlay last week, however we still have some profit leftover from our cash two weeks ago, so let’s reinvest it into another parlay this week, giving us some extra value for our Week 15 NFL picks.
Bills vs. Jaguars
The Jags have won three in a row SU, and four of their last five games overall, and there are now several teams worse than them record-wise. However the NFL odds are still undervaluing the Jags this week, as they come in as +2 underdogs at home this week, with a moneyline price of +112. There is no reason in my mind that the Jags should be home dogs once again, and I think they have value on the moneyline.
The Bills have been pretty bad on the road this season, and traveling into sunny Florida might not help much. They got beat up last week in a warm climate, and even though the Jags aren’t as good as the Bucs, Buffalo’s road struggles can’t be overlooked here. Buffalo is 1-5 SU and ATS on the road this season, and I doubt they show up again this week.
Maurice Jones-Drew does not look good to play after injuring his hamstring in Week 14, however even if he isn’t able to take the field this week, Jordan Todman should fill in nicely in the event of MJD sitting out. The Bills’ defense should give up a ton of rushing yards, which is how the Jags have been winning recently, and for the price they are, I like them as the first leg of our parlay.
The Bengals may have the AFC North almost wrapped up, but a win over the Steelers is not in the bag this week. The Steelers’ defense has a ton of upside playing at home in December, and even with the Bengals playing well, I think they are a little overvalued after their impressive win over the Colts.
The Steelers should still be pissed off after their game against the Dolphins this past week, and a good way to take out their non-playoff frustrations would be to beat up the Bengals and delay them from capturing the AFC North. The Bengals would have to win and the Ravens lose for them to clinch the division, but I see the Steelers as a solid NFL odds underdog this week. The Steelers are +2 ½ home dogs this week, which makes them priced in at +130 in the moneyline.
The Steelers’ offense should be able to beat the good Cincinnati defense this week, and as long as the Steelers cans stop the Cincy run game, I see them winning this game. They have the firepower to keep up with the Bengals on offense, and their defense should have enough left in the tank this season to try and keep the Bengals from celebrating on their home field.
My Pick: 2-team parlay Jaguars +112 & Steelers +130 (+387)