SBR's Peter Loshak shares his week 15 betting parlay, here he'll break down the public vs. sharp action to generate 2 plays worth adding to your NFL picks.
NFL Week 15 this week presents the usual assortment of handicapping situations familiar to late-season NFL, involving some teams fighting for the playoffs, others out of the playoffs but scrappily playing well for pride, and others in apparent disarray and slumping badly.
From an ATS perspective, no one has been worse for NFL picks over the past few months than the Atlanta Falcons, who have lost an amazing 9 games in a row against the spread. This week they're a small road underdog against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team that is beatable, but not if Atlanta can't fix the fundamental problems that have caused them to be such a great fade at sportsbooks recently.
On the other side of the coin, the Carolina Panthers and Kansas City Chiefs have both been great bets over the past few months, but both also may be in precarious positions this week as far as covers are concerned, as both will be big road favorites of more than a field goal. Both spreads have gotten bet lower recently, suggesting sharper action on the home dogs countering the big public action backing both road favorites.
One team with a road favorite line on the NFL odds board that has gotten bet higher is the Cincinnati Bengals, who will visit the San Francisco 49ers with AJ McCarron making his first start at QB for the Bengals. The betting markets have not as yet appeared to be fazed much by the Bengals losing Andy Dalton, and as yet no sharp action has been reported to have come in on the Niners as a home dog.
The sharpest action of the week so far seems to have come in on totals, with the under in KC/Baltimore, the under in Cleveland/Seattle, and the over in Arizona/Philly all taking sharp money early in the week.
The public action is backing the usual suspects as big as ever this week. In addition to the Panthers and the Chiefs, the public is also backing the New England Patriots, who are coming off a nice cover and have gotten star TE Rob Gronkowski back, as a double-digit home favorite against the Tennessee Titans, who are 2-7-1 ATS over their last 10 games. Some sharp action did reportedly come in though, on the Titans getting more than two touchdowns.
In my parlay this week for the Pete’s Parlay Show, I have just two legs, both money line plays, including one involving the Falcons/Jaguars matchup.
2-Plays Parlay NFL Picks: Cardinals -175 / Jacksonville -150