NFL Picks: Week 14 NFL Value Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 2:00 PM GMT

We are into the final quarter of the NFL regular season and the oddsmakers betting odds are sharper than ever at this point of the season. I’ve been fortunate with my NFL picks to be 8-2-2 against the spread the last month and 19-13-3 ATS for the season. 

Kansas City Ends Losing and Non-Cover Streak

In this confrontation of American Indian nicknames, one team has to emerge victorious. The Chiefs have lost three in a row to AFC West foes, failing to cover each time. However, they step down in class to face a Redskins team careening off the tracks, playing even worse with four consecutive defeats and non-covers.

Kansas City has faced smoking hot quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers in recent weeks and had problems, especially at the cornerback positions. But, Robert Griffin III (have you noticed very little RG3 mention lately) is not the same quarterback as last season and the offensive line does a poor job in pass-blocking.

If the Chiefs are going to beat the NFL odds, taking on a down and out opponent might be reason to use this as one of your NFL picks like myself, particularly with their 12-2 ATS record after allowing 25 points or more in three straight contests.

NFL Pick: Kansas City -3

[gameodds]16/227062/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Philadelphia Actually Covers a Home Game

Because sportsbooks elevated the Eagles this past Sunday morning to -3.5, for the 12th time in 13 home games, Philadelphia has failed to cover a spread. This week in a battle of NFC division leaders, the Eagles not only win the game but cover the spread.

With Nick Foles at the helm, Philadelphia’s big play passing attack (No. 4 in yards per attempt at 8.0) should have no problem pushing the pigskin down the field against Detroit’s 26th ranked pass defense. Expect Chip Kelly to really push the tempo, because despite the Lions having a talented front four, they have a few large fellows who might tire with a quick pace.

Also, Mathew Stafford and Lions offense has committed at least three turnovers in four of their past five outings, which Philly could feast on. Detroit is 0-7 ATS after a win by 10 or more points the last three seasons. 

NFL Pick: Philadelphia -2.5

[gameodds]16/227065/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Take Tampa Bay to baffle Buffalo

I overestimated as a NFL football handicapper what strengths Tampa Bay had on the road against Carolina and missed that game. But I like what the Buccaneers can do against Buffalo this week.

When Tampa Bay is able to establish the run from the start of the game, this is when they play well and the Bills are 24th stopping the rush, providing them the opportunity. On the presumption the Bucs are able to run, this will help slow Buffalo’s strong pass rush.

I look for Tampa Bay’s offense to cash against the Bills No. 24 yards per points allowed defense and the visitors to 1-5 SU and ATS in non-home games.

NFL Pick: Tampa Bay -2.5

[gameodds]16/227063/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]