NFL Picks: Week 14 Fades & Games to Avoid

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 3, 2013 2:58 PM GMT

SBR Forum video lord Peter Loshak wanted to come up with a method to grade these NFL picks I do with him on the video side.  Last week, I was correct in saying to avoid the Cardinals/Eagles being too close to call, along with Falcons and Bills going to overtime. Here are three games which could only end up putting coal in your Christmas stocking in trying to beat the sportsbooks.

Do You Really Want to Choose Between the Raiders and Jets?

If the NFL is really a quarterback league, here are your four potential choices this week in this AFC matchup. We have Matt McGloin and possibly Terrelle Pryor for Oakland and Geno Smith and Matt Simms for the New York Jets. Any takers?

Reports after the loss to Miami had the tension in the Gang Green locker room so thick, only a Ginsu knife would have cut it. The Jets offense has generated 20 total points in the past three games and the offensive line has to try and block eight and sometimes nine defenders, with almost no threat of the pass.

Oakland is the perfect Christmas team, as they have turned the ball over at least twice in seven of their last eight outings and are very giving. After being among the finer rushing teams in the NFL, the Raiders have 143 total rushing yards in their last two contests.

Probably best to leave this one alone with one of your NFL picks.

[gameodds]16/227069/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

NFC West Conflict Has Tricky Spread

Though both St. Louis and Arizona lost last Sunday, they had opportunities to leave with a victory, but did not. The opening NFL odds had Arizona at -6, which could be ticklish when thinking about backing the home team as they have dropped four straight to the Rams. In addition, St. Louis is among the leaders in the NFL in sacks and Carson Palmer and “mobile” are never used in the same sentence.

After an outburst of 80 total points against Indianapolis and Chicago, the Rams offense was held to 13 by San Francisco. Of course, NFL football handicappers realized the large points were fueled by eight turnovers and the Cardinals No. 8 scoring defense can stymie the St. Louis offense with Kellen Clemons running the show.

Arizona is an impressive 5-1 and 4-2 ATS in the desert compared to the Rams 2-4 SU and ATS road mark, yet I note the Rams score differential is just 0.2 points.

[gameodds]16/227071/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

East vs. West Non-Conference Clash is a Head Shaker

Two of the more bewildering teams in the NFL are the New York football Giants and the San Diego Chargers. You watch them play week after week and you find plenty to like and dislike about each team.

When considering the betting odds of San Diego opening as a field goal favorite, one of my favorite stats tells an interesting tale.

The Giants are a respectable 12th in total defense, yet sink to 24th in yards per points allowed. Conversely, the Chargers are 5th in total offense with Phil Rivers as quarterback, yet are a deplorable 28th in yards per points.

This matchup has play at your own risk written all over it.

[gameodds]16/227073/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]