Buffalo heads down south to the warm confines of Tampa, Florida this Sunday, as the Bucs welcome them into town. While Buffalo has been slumping after a solid start to the season, they have gotten back both of their top two picks in this past April’s draft, and I expect both to have a hand in the Bills getting the upset win this week.
Buffalo is a +2 ½ underdog in the NFL odds, which makes their moneyline price right around +120 at most sportsbooks. EJ Manuel has gotten stronger with each game back from injury, and last week the Bills got Robert Woods back in the fold, and it should alleviate a lot of the coverage that Stevie Johnson has been seeing.
Against the Bucs’ offense, the Bills’ defense should ramp up as well. All they have to do is stop either the run or Vincent Jackson, and I see Buffalo potentially being able to do both, even on the road. However I understand the Bucs’ offense has been playing better. Besides Week 13 against the Panthers, Mike Glennon was 3-0 in Tampa’s last three games before this past Sunday, and he had a 70% completion percentage with 617 yards passing, 5 touchdowns and 1 interception.
However if the Bills offense is truly back to form after back-to-back 30-point games against the Jets and Falcons, the Bucs are in trouble. I’m taking the Bills as the first leg of the parlay.
After their performance this past Monday night, the Seahawks have to travel into San Francisco for Week 14. This is the Niners’ last shot at keeping their divisional hopes alive, because at 11-1, the Hawks only need one more win to clinch the division against the 8-4 49ers. As +3 underdogs in the NFL odds, and +125 in the moneyline odds, I think the Hawks will do just that on the road this week.
All of the 49ers’ wins this season have come from teams they were supposed to beat. If you combine the records of the teams the Niners have their eight wins over this season, it comes out to 35-60-1 SU so far this season, while their losses are to teams with a combined record of 37-11 SU. This also includes their loss to the Hawks all the way back in Week 2.
I have doubted Seattle all season, and at least as a Super Bowl winner, I still am reserved somewhat. However if you still don’t think that this team is and should be the heavy favorite in the NFC, you’re wrong. San Francisco has beaten up on some bad teams this season, but they won’t beat Seattle, even at home, and I think the value is there with the Seahawks. This spread should be closer to a pick em’.
Frank Gore has only rushed the ball for an average of 33 yards per game over the Niners’ last three games, and if it all goes to Colin Kaepernick’s shoulders, the value of +125 with the Hawks is great.
My Pick: 2-team parlay Bills +120 & Seahawks +125 (+400)