Friday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
The start of Week 14 was very intriguing, and after cashing the Jags last night, can we look for similar value this Sunday? This week has been very interesting, because there are still two games with no NFL Odds. Let’s take a look at both of them, and see if we can speculate what they’ll look like.
Browns vs. Patriots
Right now there is one book with NFL Odds out for this game, and it favors the Patriots at -11 ½. We are still waiting word on who the starting quarterback for the Browns will be, but word is they might not release a name until Sunday. Either way, the Pats should crush the Browns here, the question is by how much. No matter who starts under center for the Browns, the spread will surely by in double figures, and even with the imposing defense from the Browns, the Patriots are sure to throw up some points. -11 ½ might be right on target with what this line will settle to.
Falcons vs. Packers
The Packers are still unsure if Aaron Rodgers will make his long awaited return to the field this week, and there is absolutely no line to speak of for this game. If Rodgers does play, the Packers should be at least a -5 or -6 favorite over the Falcons, however if he does sit out again, the spread will likely be well under a field goal. The last report out of Green Bay had Rodgers in pads yesterday, but still limited, and still taking reps from the 2nd string center. Today will be very telling on Rodgers’ status, and if the Green Bay QB gets in another practice today, his chances of playing this week skyrocket. Even if there is no official word on his status and the NFL Odds come out, if he practices again today, the Packers will look good as favorites here for your NFL picks.
Thursday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
Thursday is here, and with the kickoff to Week 14 tonight, let’s take one last look at the NFL Odds for Thursday Night Football, as well as continue our coverage of Sunday’s lines.
Texans vs. Jaguars
It looks as if the Jags will be settling as a +3 ½ home underdog this week in the NFL Odds, and while I can’t say I trust them, I can say they look to be the play this week. The public is on Houston, and I can only guess why. The Jags dominated Houston two weeks ago in Houston, but once again the Jags are underdogs at home. It makes little sense, and that is why I have to think the Jags are where the value is. They are playing much better defensively, and they have won three of their last four games SU. While they have been giving up some yards through the air recently, they are still winning. They should not be this big of an underdog at home to the only team with a worse record than theirs.
Lions vs. Eagles
This spread is below a field goal in the NFL Odds, and right now one player’s presence could make or break your NFL pick on this game. Reggie Bush has not practiced yet this week, and although it’s only Thursday, when you’re dealing with Bush’s knees, precaution has to be made. The Lions would still own the divisional lead even with a loss here, so you have to think if Bush is less than 100%, he won’t play much if at all. That would likely mean the Eagles have great value here at home as only -2 ½ favorites. Keep an eye on Bush’s status in practice today and tomorrow, and if he looks doubtful, I love the Eagles this week.
Wednesday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
Yesterday we took a look at some of the higher spreads of the week, so now before the kickoff to Week 14 tomorrow, let’s take a look at some of the smaller spreads this week.
This one should be fun, as both of the leading NFC South teams meet up in New Orleans, and the NFL Odds have the Saints as -3 ½ favorites, with a total of 45 ½. Even after getting blasted by the Seahawks, all could be cured for the Saints with a big win over the Panthers here. The NFC South title is still very much up for grabs, and with a win, the Panthers would move into sole possession of the NFC South division with only three weeks left. Even though it is a tall task to win in New Orleans, if any team can do it, it’s the Panthers and their defense. However, I think this game is much better for enjoying, and not wagering.
Bills vs. Bucs
The Bills should have some nice value this week, as they travel down to Tampa as +2 ½ underdogs to the Bills. Buffalo just got back their star rookies, EJ Manuel and Robert Woods, and both should be big in this Sunday’s game. The Bills’ defense has not been playing great recently, but if they can show up in Tampa against one of the league’s worst offenses, then the Bills will not only cover this game, but they could win it outright. With the return of their two rookies, the Bills’ offense likely won’t get shut down by Tampa, despite the Bucs playing better defense lately, and I see some value being presented with the Bills here.
Tuesday's Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
We have only four weeks of 2013 left, as well as four weeks of the NFL regular season. The NFL Odds for Week 14 are out for the most part, and there are only a few larger spreads that have come out this week. Let’s take a look at them, and see if either the big favorites or dogs have the value.
Vikings vs. Ravens
Because the spread for the Browns and Patriots isn’t quite out yet, the Vikings and Ravens are the 2ndlargest spread of the week. At -7 ½, the Ravens seem to have a small amount of value, but the Vikings did play well against the Bears last week. However, Chicago’s defense couldn’t stop some college offenses with how injured there are, and besting them with their backup quarterback isn’t a tall task these days. I have to lean towards the Ravens here who are also as low as -7 in some instances. Look for Baltimore if they drop below a touchdown, because that may be when the value erupts.
For the next four weeks, the Broncos will be featured in my NFL Odds update as one of the biggest spreads. They close out the season facing four teams with a combined record of 16-32 this season. This week is arguable the toughest test of all four weeks, as the Titans come to town taking anywhere from +11 to +13 in the NFL Odds. The Titans defense has been playing better lately, and even on the road they have been at the very least playing solid defense. However at -11, I might lean towards Denver. The Titans are 2-4 ATS in their last six trips to Denver, and this is the first time they have to play Manning’s version of the Broncos.
Monday's Opening Odds Report
By: Jordan Sharp
The opening game of the week is nothing to get excited about, but even these two high draft picks next season could have some Week 14 value this Thursday. The NFL Odds have the Texans as -2 ½ road favorites in this one, with a total of 43 points. Believe it or not, the Jaguars have been playing better football over the last few weeks. They have won three of their last four games SU, and have beaten the Texans in Houston during that stretch. Now they are +2 ½ underdogs, and I don’t think a bad bet would be the Jags on the money line. Houston is the better team, but they have not played like it this season. With that being said will you still be willing to place your money on them for your NFL picks?
Raiders vs. Jets
Another game that might not be on many people’s radar is the Raiders and Jets from New York. A long travel game this late in the season could really handicap the Raiders in this game, however the NFL Odds have the Jets as only -2 ½ favorites here at home. Both of these defenses should have great games, and the odds on the total at 40 ½ could have some nice early week under value. The spread to me is a no play, but at 40 ½, these two teams might not get to 30 points in this one, let alone 40.
Colts vs. Bengals
The Colts came back to win in against the Titans this past week, but now they head back on the road, a place that has not been too kind to them recently. They were beaten in Arizona badly in Week 11, and now they find themselves as +5 ½ underdogs in Cincinnati this weekend. The Bengals could do a lot for their playoff standings in this game, and I think they know it. Right now they are 8-4 SU, and looking up at the Colts, also at 8-4. The next closest team in the AFC North is the Ravens at 6-6, however they have a very winnable game this week against the Vikings. The Bengals however could move into sole possession of 3rd place in the AFC with a win this week.
Rams vs. Cardinals
The Cardinals have only played three divisional games all season, and they have lost all three of them SU and went 1-2 ATS. They have a slew of divisional games to finish the season, and one of them is in Week 14 against the Rams. The NFL Odds have Arizona as a -6 favorite, and speaking of playoff chances, the Cardinals are going to have to start winning against their division to make the playoffs. I think they have a great shot at winning and covering against the Rams at home. -6 is not a lot, and with how well the Cardinals’ defense has been playing, this could have early week value.