Here are your Week 14 Advanced Point Spreads along with recent series results, Trends and some NFL picks for SBR readers to keep ahead of the other guys throwing darts.
Thursday, December 10, 2015
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals -6: Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS, vs. Seahawks Sunday) head to the Sonoran Desert and University of Phoenix Stadium to face the Arizona Cardinals (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS, at Rams on Sunday) in a huge NFC inter-divisional showdown from suburban Phoenix (Glendale) next Thursday night. When these two teams last met, the Vikings won and covered at Home in 2011 as 3-point favorites, 34-10, while in the last meeting here in Glendale, the Cardinals won outright as 3½-point underdogs, 30-17. Minnesota has been a very strong Under (9-1-1) team this season, but trying to stop Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald and Downtown John Brown on their Home turf will take some doing, although the loss of RB Chris Johnson gives Arizona one less weapon in its deep and speedy Offensive arsenal. Seems like a good Over maybe when the Totals market open. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year opened this game at Cardinals -5 here. The Vikings are 4-4 SU and 4-3 ATS on Thursday Nights while the Cardinals and Patrick Peterson are 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS and 0-2 ATS here at Home on Thursday evenings. A good one to just watch.
Sunday, December 13, 2015
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals (9-2 SU, 8-1-2 ATS, at Browns on Sunday) welcome the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5 SU, 5-4-2 ATS, vs. Colts on Sunday) to Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati next Sunday afternoon for what would have been a huge AFC North date except that the Bengals have been rude and run away with the division. Still a big game for the Steelers in terms of fighting for a Wild Card spot and maybe for Cincinnati for a possible Home-field edge throughout the AFC Playoffs should the Patriots slip, but there is No Line for now with the condition of Steelers starting QB Ben Roethlisberger (Concussion) a variable. When these two met at Heinz Field earlier this season, the Bengals won outright, 16-10 in a Pick ‘Em situation. The Steelers are 3-1 ATS the L3 meetings in this series and 4-1 ATS the L5 here at Home against Cincinnati in Pittsburgh.
Buffalo Bills -1 at Philadelphia Eagles: Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS; vs. Texans on Sunday) head to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia next Sunday to face the Eagles (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS, at Patriots on Sunday) in a huge game for both teams who are still in the postseason hunt despite mediocre Records and lackluster Regular Seasons. The last time these two met here in the City of Brotherly Love, the then Andy Reid-coached Eagles defeated the Bills, 17-9, but failed to cover ATS by 1-point as 9-point favorites in 2008 and the Bills are 4-1 ATS in the L5 in this series and have a much better football team and Defense than do the Eagles.
NFL Pick: Bills -1
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers -8: MVP-candidate Cam Newton and the Panthers (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS, at Saints on Sunday) play host to Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS, at Buccaneers on Sunday) in a game in which the hosts may still be trying to preserve their unbeaten Record and one in which the visitors may need to keep their Postseason hopes alive. This will be the first meeting between these two Southeast rivals who will meet again in Week 16 in Atlanta. Last year in this game in Charlotte, Carolina defeated the Falcons, 34-10 and easily covered the 8½-point spread. Atlanta—which was scheduled to get RB Devonta Freeman back in Week 13—is an abysmal 1-5 ATS the L6 vs. the Panthers and 0-3 ATS the L3 here in Charlotte at Bank of America Stadium.
NFL Pick: Panthers -8
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns -3 : Blaine Gabbert and the San Francisco 49ers (3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS, at Bears on Sunday) head east three Time Zones (PST to EST) to face Josh McCown and the Cleveland Browns (2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS, vs. Bengals Sunday) in an inter-conference affair with absolutely no meaning. Luckily, there’s gambling to save this one? These two don’t play much, but the last time they did the Browns lost 20-10 getting 9 points back in 2011 while the last meeting here in Cleveland saw the then Romeo Crennel-coached Brown top the 49ers, 20-7 and barely cover ATS as healthy 11½-point chalks in 2007 when Donald Trump was still just a Real Estate baron with a big caterpillar on his head. Entering Week 13 play, anemic San Francisco had scored the least Points in the entire NFL (152).
Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears -3½: The Washington Redskins (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS, vs. Cowboys on Monday Night Football) head to the Windy City next Sunday to face Jay Cutler and the upstart Chicago Bears (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS, vs. 49ers on Sunday) in a game between teams with identical Records and a glimmer of hope in terms of some Postseason football, although the loser here will surely be doomed. The last time these two played, the then Mike Shanahan-coached Redskins defeated Chicago, 45-41 and covered ATS getting 1 point in 2011 while the last time these two locked horns here at Soldier Field, Washington won outright, 13-10 getting 3 points in 2010. The Redskins are an impressive 10-3 ATS the L13 vs. Da Bears and Washington is 8-2 ATS the L8 here in Chitown but it must be noted most of those were much better Redskins teams. Should be fun for our NFL picks
Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams -2: Rookie sensation RB Todd Gurley and the St. Louis Rams (4-7 SU, 4-6-1 ATS, vs. Arizona Sunday) welcome Rookie RB Ameer Abdullah and the Detroit Lions (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS, vs. Packers on Thursday Night Football) to the Edward Jones Dome in the Gateway City next Sunday for this pretty much meaningless inter-divisional NFL Week 14 tilt. The last time these two played, the then Jim Schwartz-coached Lions beat the Rams 27-23 in Week of the 2012 season but failed to cover as robust 9-point favorites while the last meeting here in St. Louis saw the Rams upset Detroit, 41-34 and win outright as 5½-point dogs in 2006. The Rams are 3-1 ATS the L4 in this series.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs -8½: Philip Rivers and the Chargers (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS, vs. Broncos on Sunday) travel two Time Zones east (PST to CST) to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City next Sunday to dance with Alex Smith and the Chiefs (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS; at Raiders on Sunday) in an AFC West game which only have meaning to the Chiefs. When these two met earlier this year in San Diego, Kansas City rolled to a 33-3 Win as 3-point favorites on Nov. 22. The Chiefs are now 4-0 ATS the L4 in this series with that Win and Cover and are may be worth a shot here although the Bolts looked good against the Jaguars in Week 12 and 8½ (points) is an awfully steep price.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4: Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (4-7 SU, 4-6-1 ATS, vs.Panthers on Sunday) welcome Rookie QB Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS, vs. Falcons on Sunday) to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa next Sunday for this NFC South tilt. When these two met earlier this season in Week 2, the Bucs won outright 26-19 as huge 9½-point underdogs while in this meeting in Tampa last season, the Saints won 23-20 but failed to cover as 6-point chalks in Week 17. Doug Martin, Mike Evans and the Bucs are now 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series and are 3-1 ATS the L4 here at Raymond James.
NFL Pick: Buccaneers -4
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: RB TJ Yeldon and the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7 SU, 6-5 ATS, at Titans on Sunday) welcome QB Matt Hasselbeck and the Indianapolis Colts (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, at Steelers on Sunday) to EverBank Field in Jacksonville next Sunday for the Week 14 AFC South game which may still be important to both teams despite the ugly Records. When these two met earlier this Regular Season in Naptown, the Colts were victorious in Week 4, winning 16-13 in OT but failing to cover ATS as 4-point favorites (with usual starting QB Andrew Luck out) while in this game last year in Alligator Alley, Indianapolis won 44-17 and easily covered as 5½-point favorites. The Colts are 5-1 ATS the L6 in this series—the lone non-cover that aforementioned ATS Loss earlier this year—and the Colts are 3-0 ATS the L3 here and look like a strong play in this situation, especially getting a point.
NFL Pick: Colts +1
Tennessee Titans at New York Jets -7½: Rookie QB Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans (2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS; vs. Jaguars on Sunday) head to MetLife Stadium in beautiful East Rutherford, New Jersey next Sunday afternoon to face the Darrelle Revis and the New York Jets (6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, vs. Giants Sunday) in an AFC inter-divisional affair which will only matter to the Jets. The last time these two locked horns, the Jets won 16-13 last season in Nashville and covered ATS as 3-point favorites while the last meeting here with the Jets as host saw the then Rex Ryan-coached Jets top Tennessee, 24-17 as 1-point chalks in 2009. Gang Green is 7-2 ATS the L9 against the Titans and with the lowly Titans now a horrific 7-22-3 ATS its L32 overall heading into Week 13 play.
NFL Pick: Jets -7½
New England Patriots -3½ at Houston Texans: The Flex Schedule demands the Super Bowl champs and so it is written and So Let It Be. Next Sunday night in primetime on NBC it will be the New England Patriots (10-1 SU, 5-3-3 ATS, vs. Eagles on Sunday) and QB Tom Brady (65-47-1 ATS on Road) will pay a visit to the Lone Star State to face JJ Watt and the rejuvenated Texans (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, at Bills) in an enticing Week 14 AFC inter-divisional game from Reliant Stadium in Houston which could surprise. The last time these two met, the Patriots won 34-31 but failed to cover ATS as 7-point favorites in 2013 in here in Houston and Rob Gronkowski and New England are a strong 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series but with Gronk hobbled and Julian Edelman (WR) and Dion Lewis (RB), just aren’t as deep as the they were Roster-wise in Week 1. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year opened this game up at Patriots -2½.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos -6½ : David Carr and the Oakland Raiders (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS, vs. Chiefs on Sunday) head to Sports Authority Field in Denver to face either QB Brock Osweiler or Peyton Manning and the Broncos (9-2 SU, 7-3-1 ATS, at Chargers on Sunday) in a game which looks like it will be more important to Rookie WR Amari Cooper and the visitors who will be playing at Altitude in the Rocky Mountains in the cold month of December. When these two met earlier this season, the Broncos won 16-10 in Oakland and barely covered the 5-point spread in a 16-10 Win. Denver is a spotless 7-0-1 ATS the L8 against the Silver and Black but the Broncos are just 1-6-1 ATS the L8 against Oakland here in Denver. Weird. But true.
NFL Pick: Broncos -6½
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers -9: The Dallas Cowboys (3-8 SU, 3-8 ATS, at Redskins on Monday Night Football) head to historic Lambeau Field next Sunday in Week 14 play to face Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS, at Lions on Thursday Night Football) in an NFC inter-divisional tilt which looked much better before the season started and Cowboys QB Tony Romo suffered a couple of serious Collarbone injuries. The last time these two historic NFL teams met, the Packers eliminated Dez Bryant and Dallas from last year’s NFC Playoffs, 26-21, losing outright as (surprise) 5½-point favorites and incredibly good SU and ATS on the Road. Green Bay is 3-1 ATS the L4 against the Cowboys who will likely still be going with new backup QB Matt Cassel with Romo done for the season. The number seems and looks high, but there is a good reason. As always, usually. Leaning Cheeseheads but need to think. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year had Green Bay open up as 5-point chalks here, so you can see how much Dallas has dipped, even though the Packers are beat up and without superstar WR and Kansas State product Jordy Nelson for the season.
Seattle Seahawks -4½ at Baltimore Ravens: Richard Sherman and the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (6-5 SU, 4-6-1 ATS, at Vikings Sunday) head three Time Zones (PST to EST) and the 2,770 miles east to M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore to face backup QB Matt Schaub (Joe Flacco, Knee, done for season) and the feisty Ravens (3-7 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, at Dolphins on Sunday) in an AFC inter-conference Week 14 affair from Crab City and big game for the visitors. When these two last met in 2011 in the Emerald City, the Seahawks won outright 22-17 as 6½-point underdogs while the last meeting here in Crab City was way back in 2003 where the Ravens pulled out a 44-41 OT win here at M&T Bank Stadium. The best approach here may be to wait and see if there is some early money on Baltimore and then take Seattle on the Moneyline if it dips enough. Note: TE Jimmy Graham is injured for Seattle and like Flacco and teammate WR Steve Smith, done for the season. My sons, the Sparrows are here again and demand more seeds. As always.
Monday, December 14, 2015
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins PK: QB Eli Manning and the New York Giants (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS, vs. Jets on Sunday) head south to sunny Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens Florida next Monday night to face Jarvis Landry and the host Miami Dolphins (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS, vs. Ravens on Sunday) in a big inter-conference game for the visitors from the Big Apple. When these two clubs last met, the then Tony Sparano-coached Dolphins lost 20-17 at MetLife Stadium in 2011 but covered ATS as big 9½-point underdogs while the last meeting here in South Florida was way back in 1996—when Bill Clinton was US President—at Pro Player Stadium (also in Miami Gardens)—and saw the G-Men win outright 17-7 and cover ATS as 7-point underdogs. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year, NFL odds released late Spring had the Dolphins open as healthy 3½-point favorites for this primetime game (snoozer), so you can see how the positive feelings oddsmakers had for the Fish have now justifiably turned to sediment.
NFL Pick: Giants PK
Week 14 Advanced Line NFL Picks: Bills -1, Panthers -8, Buccaneers -4, Colts +1, Jets -7½, Broncos -6½, Giants Pick ‘em