NFL Picks: Week 13 What the Bookies Missed

Nila Amerova

Friday, November 29, 2013 7:22 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 29, 2013 7:22 PM GMT

As the NFL season fast approaches the business end, games start to gain greater importance down the stretch. Join us as we sort through the serving on offer in Week 13 NFL betting in search of value NFL picks.

Chicago Bears +1.0 @ Minnesota Vikings -1.0

Analysis: Does this line make any sense? The Bears (6-5, 2-3 away) taking one of the worst NFL offerings this season in the Vikings (2-8-1, 2-3 home) as the distinct underdogs at +100 to win SU? Don’t bookies have this market upside down? Everybody is making a big deal of Adrian Peterson and his ability to win this game singlehandedly but well with two wins on the season so far that argument holds very little traction. Watch the Bears turn the NFL odds in their favor.

NFL Picks: Bears to win straight up

[gameodds]16/227051/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Denver Broncos -5.0 @ Kansas City Chiefs +5.0

Analysis:
Broncos are after a crushing 34-31 defeat to New England Patriots in which they saw a 24-0 lead erased. Ouch. That had to hurt. Despite that bad loss, sportsbooks send Peyton Manning and his Broncos into their highly anticipated reverse against the Chiefs as the favorites to win straight up at -230 at Bet365. Definitely we agree the Broncos deserve to be the favourites here. But whether they should be priced so high is another matter entirely. After all, the Chiefs aren’t bad at all. In fact, only a few weeks ago they were the only undefeated team in the NFL; that is, until they rolled into Denver where Peyton Manning was only too happy to address that score.

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Chiefs have a score to settle and they will be looking to get one over the Broncos, especially while they are still reeling from that defeat to New England. That makes one consider the Chiefs at +190 to win straight up as the potential value NFL pick. It’s possible. But it’s worth noting that a two-game losing streak ahead of this clash does take the shine off their odds. What’s more they seem to have lost that edge, the verve and swagger they started the season on is slipping alongside the slide in form. That makes us believe that the Broncos are well priced in the end on the straight up win. Moreover, the spread probably should have been higher but since it isn’t the Broncos to cover in a big way is our recommended value NFL Pick.

NFL Picks: Broncos to win straight up and cover

[gameodds]16/227047/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

New England Patriots -7.5 @ Houston Texans +7.5

Analysis: New England Patriots are after a big win over the Broncos, a high on their season that could potentially be followed by a hangover. It’s not unusual to see teams, even those as good as the Patriots are, falter following an impressive win. It’s just the way of things. And that possibility opens the door to a Houston Texans side to make an impression.

Now, this doesn’t mean we’re backing the Texans to the straight up win at +280 at Bet365 – that would be quite the big upset, coming from practically nowhere seeing that the Texans are enjoying a nine-game losing streak, which includes a recent 13-6 defeat to Jacksonville Jaguars. But the Texans have been able to play most teams close on the scoreboard this season, including heavyweights Seahawks and Chiefs. So they just might be able to surprise here and cover the 7.5 spread here as well.

NFL Picks: Patriots to win straight up; Texans to cover

[gameodds]16/227056/?r3=43-19-349/dec&r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]
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