NFL Picks: Week 13 Value Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 25, 2014 7:30 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2014 7:30 PM UTC

After last week, I’m 8-3-1 ATS with recent NFL picks designed to have some value against the sportsbooks. The holiday weekend can always be tricky for NFL football handicappers like me.

Nonetheless, I broke the schedule down into segments to easier study the betting odds and I feel confident I have three NFL week13 picks that will be better than a leftover turkey sandwich.

Dallas Gobbles Up Philadelphia
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not putting the Cowboys in the Super Bowl; there typical collapse normally does not happen until December. Yet from what I have seen, this Dallas team has a different look about them, they play calmer and with more confidence. At least offensively, having the best offensive line in the game and running back DeMarco Murray is a dramatic confidence boost on that side of the ball, being able to control the early down and distance numbers.

When Tony Romo needs to throw his to perimeter weapons, they are top shelf and having old reliable Jason Witten is a significant comfort factor.

Two other reasons I’ll back the Cowboys here is Philadelphia is allowing 25 points a game this season and the defense spends a lot of time on the field (3rd most in NFL), which against the Dallas O-Line, the defenders could wear out. Lastly, Mark Sanchez will be good for two picks at least which the Boys turn into points.

Free NFL pick: Dallas -3

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Pittsburgh is Situational Spot vs. New Orleans
Sometimes in all types of sports betting, it comes down to situations. The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off their bye week and should be ready to return to action in hopes of winning their division. New Orleans just finished a dismal three-game homestand in which they lost all three contests as favorites and the last was on Monday night, creating a short week. Not having been on the road for a month, it is not easy to get back in the swing of things for any team and the Saints are better suited to play in a dome compared to outdoors.

Also, in Pittsburgh’s last game at Tennessee, they faced a blitzing Titans defense and while the Saints will have somewhat different blitz schemes, the blocking aspects will be similar, giving the Steelers another edge versus a beatable New Orleans secondary. When you start compiling these factors, it is evident based on situations, Pittsburgh will have a distinct edge and should win by seven or more.

Free NFL pick: Pittsburgh -4 at BookMaker

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Kansas City Downs Denver at Home
Kansas City was asleep at the switch at Oakland, coming off five consecutive wins and covers. The Chiefs started flat, awoke briefly to take the lead but by then the Raiders believed and finished the job. The Chiefs will not be resting now that they have fallen out of first place and will bring their A-game presumably. Kansas City players have to be sick of losing to the Broncos, something they have done five times in a row (2-3 ATS). Besides the motivational factor, I do not imagine any hangover by K.C. from their last loss, particularly with a veteran coach like Andy Reid.

From the value perspective of the NFL odds, football bettors took Denver from a Pick to -1.5 and Alex Smith and friends are 10-2 ATS against defenses conceding 61 percent or higher completion percentage. Kansas City wins this one outright.

Free NFL pick: Kansas City +1.5

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