The Colts have been one big rollercoaster ever since they lost Reggie Wayne, and now they welcome in the Titans for a big game for both teams. The Colts are by default leading the AFC South, and Tennessee is currently the leading 5-6 AFC team for the final wildcard spot.
The NFL odds have the Colts as -4 favorites here in this one, with a total of 44 ½. While the total is somewhat inviting, I think the spread actually holds more value in this one. The Titans have been playing much better recently, and I think they are the play here in this game.
Indianapolis has been blown out in two of their last three games, and the only game they haven’t been blown out of recently was their win on the road in Tennessee. The Titans played well, but the Colts ended up with the win by three points.
Since then the Titans have been playing pretty good football. Their defense especially has been picking up. The Titans have averaged giving up less than 100 yards rushing per game in their last three games, and since the Colts have no running game, I think we can expect it to happen for a fourth straight week.
The Titans already have the pass defense to slow down the Colts, and even though they are on the road, their defense should travel well. They allowed only 350 total yards last week on the road, and I see them doing the same this week. We'll take the points with the Titans in our NFL picks.
My Pick: Titans +4
Broncos vs. Chiefs
The marquee matchup of the week is the AFC West showdown between the Broncos and Chiefs, and the sportsbooks have Denver as a -4 ½ road favorite, with a total of 48 or 49 points. Denver edged them out when playing at home a few weeks ago, but now on the road as more than a field goal favorite, will the result be the same?
The Chiefs should get back Tamba Hali for this game, but they will be without Justin Houston, who could miss the next few weeks. Either way, having at least one of their credible pass rushers for this game should give the Broncos a lot of problems, and I think it could lead to the Chiefs covering here.
Kansas City’s offense plays better at home, and even though they had to play catch up last week, it still showed that their offense is diverse enough to keep up in a high scoring game. One big factor to that will be the play of Jamaal Charles. If he can run the ball well on a Broncos defense that has given up over 130 rushing yards per game over their last three games, Kansas City could win, let alone cover here.
Denver is already having secondary issues, and in Arrowhead, I doubt the Chiefs put up another bad defensive effort like last week against the Chargers.
My Pick: Chiefs +4 ½