NFL Picks: Week 13 NFL Lock

Steve Merril - Steve@prosportsinfo.com

Friday, November 29, 2013 7:21 PM GMT

Atlanta and Buffalo will play in TorontoCanada in the comfy confines of the Rogers Centre. There will be no weather issues inside the dome as opposed to if this game was being played in Buffalo.

The Falcons actually catch a big break with the location of the game, but that still isn’t going to be enough for Atlanta.

The current NFL odds pointspread on this game has Buffalo anywhere between -3 (-115) and -3.5 (+100) at various sportsbooks. The total currently sits at 46.5 or 47 after opening at 48.

Atlanta’s season has been a mess. The Falcons come into this game with an ugly 2-9 SU record and 3-8 mark ATS. This team went 13-3 in the regular season last year and they also won a playoff game. Injuries have really taken their toll on the Falcons with the biggest being on the offensive line and at the wide receiver position.

The Falcons got up for their last game against the Saints. Atlanta was at home for that Thursday night TV game and they were 7.5-point home underdogs. They were competitive in a 17-13 loss, but now we expect a major letdown off that game. That was Atlanta’s “big game” as it was against a divisional rival on primetime. This out of conference game against Buffalo means absolutely nothing to the Falcons, especially with the game being played outside of the United States.

Atlanta’s biggest weakness this season has been the play of their defense. The Falcons are allowing 28.1 points per game; they gave up just 20 points per game last season. Atlanta is allowing opponents 6.1 yards per play which ranks them #30 in the NFL. They give up a whopping 7.7 yards per pass attempt which also ranks them #30 in that defensive category. 

In five road games this season, Atlanta has allowed 23 points or more in every game with 75 total points allowed in their last two games away from home. The poor defensive play by Atlanta will continue in this game as Buffalo’s offense holds a major match-up edge that they will exploit.

Buffalo comes into this game off their bye, and that is a big edge this late in the season. The Bills are just 4-7 SU this year but they are 6-5 ATS. They played a killer 3-game stretch of games at New Orleans, home against Kansas City, and at Pittsburgh prior to their 37-14 win over the Jets in their last game. Those three losses can be excused since they played three of the better defensive teams in the league in consecutive weeks.

Week 13 Betting Odds Report~

[gameodds]16/227054/?r-1=19-43-349-192/us[/gameodds]

The Bills will run the ball all over the Falcons in this game. Buffalo leads the NFL in rushing attempts per game with 33, and they average 134.1 rushing yards per game on 4.1 yards per rush. Atlanta has allowed 666 rushing yards on 6.0 yards per rush over their last five games. Overall, the Bills hold a substantial +70.6 net yards per game rushing differential over the Falcons heading into this game.

Buffalo’s defense has played sneaky good despite allowing 24.8 points per game. They give up a respectable 5.1 yards per play (#12) and just 6.4 yards per pass attempt (#11). The Bills are tied for first in the NFL in interceptions with 16 and sacks with 37. Buffalo’s defense matches-up well against the weak Atlanta offensive line, and Falcons QB Matt Ryan will once again struggle; he has had a terrible season with a QB rating of just 89.9 on the year.

The Bills own all of the fundamental and situational edges in this game. Buffalo is fresh and ready off their bye week  for our NFL picks, while Atlanta is simply waiting for the season to end. This game means a lot more to the Bills as well, especially since they are playing in Toronto where they have a large fan base. Be sure to shop around and lay the 3 points with the Bills in this game on late Sunday afternoon.

Play BILLS (-3 or less).