NFL Picks Week 13: Game-by-Game Weekend Odds & Totals Rundown

Kevin Stott

Thursday, December 3, 2015 12:27 PM GMT

We have a pocket-full-of NFL picks & a cyber-hug for you Sportsbook Review readers, Let’s take an in-depth look at this week’s slate of 16 games from a Totals point of view. Go get ‘em boss.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Current Point Spread: Packers -3 (BetOnline)
Lowest Total in Market: 46 (CG Technology)
Consensus Total in Market: 46½
Highest Total in Market: 47 (MGM Mirage, William Hill)

Totals Trends, Thoughts
The Green Bay Packers (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) head across Lake Michigan to Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday night to face the suddenly rejuvenated Detroit Lions (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS) in an NFC North affair important to the visitors and a game in which both teams will strangely get the normal 6 Days of Rest after both playing on Thanksgiving in Week 12 last Thursday. When these two teams met at Lambeau Field in Week 10 earlier this season, the Packers were upset by Detroit, 18-16, with the game going well Under the posted Total of 50 while in this meeting at Ford Field, Green Bay lost 19-7 in Week 3 with that game also going well Under the Total of 5. Packers Unders are 6-3 ATS this season and the Under is a head-turning 7-1 ATS in the L8 Green Bay games overall. In a climate-controlled, indoor environment like Ford Field, weather won’t be a factor here but it’s hard to suggest the Under despite the Trends with the Lions having the 7th-ranked Passing Offense and 32nd and last in the NFL in Rushing (74.5 ypg) and the Packers desperately needing the Win, the football should be in the air. But still, this number seems high after the 34 in the first meeting this year and the 26 here in the Motor City last season.

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San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Point Spread: Bears -7 (Pinnacle)
Lowest Total in Market: 43
Consensus Total in Market: 43
Highest Total in Market: 43½ (5Dimes)

Totals Trends, Thoughts
The suddenly upstart Chicago Bears (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) welcome Blaine Gabbert and the San Francisco 49ers (3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS) to Soldier Field on Sunday for this Week 13 game which matters to the hosts because of their Turkey Day night upset win at Lambeau Field. The last time these two teams played, the Bears won 28-20 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara last season as 8-point underdogs with the game going Over the closing posted Total of 47 by 1 point while the last time these two met here in the Windy City where you can actually construct a solid f0our-wall house out of deep-dish Pizza, the then Lovie Smith-coached Bears thrashed the Niners, 41-10 with that game going Over the 42 Total back in 2006 when we all had more Hair and more Patience. San Francisco has scored the least number of points in the NFL (152) and will be losing 2 Body Clock Hours traveling east the 1,615 miles from San Francisco (PST) to Chicago (CST). The Bears are 7-4 Unders and with new-guy Gabbert in and learning at QB for San Francisco and some mid-40’s Temperatures in the forecast, lean Under here especially with some Trends supporting this—Under 23-9 L34 49ers vs. NFC and Under 8-3 L11 Bears games at Home in Chicago.

NFL Pick: Under 44 -120 (5Dimes)

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Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Point Spread:
Bengals -7 (Pinnacle)
Lowest Total in Market: 43 Consensus
Total in Market: 43
Highest Total in Market: 43½ (5Dimes)

Totals Trends, Thoughts
The Cincinnati Bengals (9-2 SU, 8-1-2 ATS) head upstate to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland on Sunday to face QB Josh McCown and the Browns (2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS) in this AFC North affair which only matters to the visitors and WR AJ Green. When these two met earlier this year in Cincinnati, the Bengals rolled to a 31-10 win with the game going Under the Total of 45½ while in the last meeting here in Cleveland, the Bengals shut out the Browns, 30-0, with that one also going Under (43½). Browns Overs are 8-3 ATS this season but with the Under 4-1 ATS the L5 here, tiny lean to the Under but that number is spot on.

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
Lowest Total in Market:
43
Consensus Total in Market: 43s and 43½s
Highest Total in Market: 43½

Totals Trends, Thoughts
The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7 SU, 6-5) head to LP Field in Nashville on Sunday to face Rookie QB Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans (2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS) in this AFC South Week 13 affair and quick turnaround rematch of these teams Thursday Night Football game in Week 11, the Jaguars won, 19-13 in a game that went Under the 41½ Total. In last year’s meeting between these two here at LP Field in Nashville, the Titans won 16-14 with that one falling well Under the Total of 42½. Trend-wise, the Under is 19-7-1 in the Jaguars L27 games vs. the AFC South while the Over is 7-3 ATS in Jacksonville’s L10 vs. the AFC. With the L4 in the series going Under the Total (32, 34, 30, 36) and 5 out of the L6, the Trends point to backing the Under at the highest number in the market and buying that extra ½ because it sits on a ½ (43½, Heritage). Worth noting here: The Titans are an abysmal 1-8-1 ATS the L10 against Jacksonville and 1-4 ATS in the L5 games at Home.

NFL Pick: Under 44 -133 (Bet365)

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Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills
Lowest Total in Market:
41 (Jerry’s Nugget)
Consensus Total in Market: 41½
Highest Total in Market: 42 (MGM Mirage)

Totals Trends, Thoughts: The Buffalo Bills (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) welcome the Houston Texans (6-5 ATS, 6-5 ATS) and starting QB Brian Hoyer (Concussion) to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo here in Week 12. The last time these two AFC teams played, the Bills lost 23-17 at Houston last year with the game going Under the posted closing Total of 44 while in the last meeting here Upstate New York, the then Dick Jauron-coached Buffalo lost to the Texans, 31-10, with that one also going Under the 41½ Total by ½ a point back in 2009. The Over is 6-2 ATS the L8 Texans games vs. AFC but the Under is 10-4 ATS the L14 Bills games here at Home and the Under is also 9-4 on Buffalo’s L13 games on Turf (A-Turf Titan, Ralph Wilson Stadium). These two teams seldom play, but in the 7 lifetime meetings the under is 5-2 and the games have averaged just 37.43 ppg. JJ Watt, Brian Cushing and the Texans have been playing some great Defense lately.

NFL Pick: Under 42 (MGM Mirage)

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Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Lowest Total in Market:
43½
Consensus Total in Market: 43½
Highest Total in Market: 44 (Sportsbook.ag)

Totals Trends, Thoughts
The Baltimore Ravens (4-7 SU, 3-7-1 ATS) and now starting QB Matt Schaub head to Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens this Sunday afternoon to face Ndamukong Suh and the host Miami Dolphins (4-7 ATS, 4-7 ATS) in a meaningless AFC inter-divisional Week 13 affair. When these two last met last season here in Miami Gardens, the Ravens won 28-13 with the game going Under the posted Total 0f 45 and the Totals are split 4-4 ATS in the 6 meetings over the last decade. Even though the Over is 8-2 ATS in the Dolphins L10 games against the AFC, Baltimore (5-1 ATS the L6 meetings here in Miami) is not as bad as their Record—they’ve had horrible Travel, lost key players in the Offseason and have sustained way too many injuries, including the recent one to starting QB Joe Flacco (Knee, ACL, MCL) who is done for the season, making way for the 34-year-old Schaub here—and should be able to stifle the Miami Offense and make this a low-scoring affair.

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Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
Lowest Total in Market:
49 (Sportsbook.ag)
Consensus Total in Market: 49½
Highest Total in Market: 50½ (Treasure Island)

Totals Trends, Thoughts
Cam Newton (21-15 ATS on Road, 5-0 ATS this season) and the still undefeated Carolina Panthers (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS) head to New Orleans on Sunday afternoon to face Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (4-7 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Week 13 play. The last time these two met, the Panthers won 27-22 in Charlotte with the game going Over the 43 Total earlier this season in Week 3 while last year here in The Big Easy, the Panthers—a game in which Carolina actually started this 15-game Regular Season Win Streak—the Cats beat up on the Saints, 41-10 with that game trickling Over the posted 50 Total by a point. Although the Under is 7-2 ATS the L9 Saints games in December, the Over is 8-1 ATS the L9 Panthers games vs. the NFC, the Over is 7-1 ATS the L8 Carolina games on FieldTurf (Mercedes-Benz Superdome) and the Over is a powerful 10-3 ATS the L13 Panthers Road tilt and with weather not being an issue, the Offense clicking and Home-field Advantage in the NFC in the front of their minds, Carolina should score around 33 or more in this one, helping the game again leak Over.

NFL Pick: Over 48 -125 (Bet365)

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Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings
Lowest Total in Market:
41 (Coast Casinos)
Consensus Total in Market: 41½
Highest Total in Market: 42 (Sportsbook.ag)

Totals Trends, Thoughts
Russell Wilson and the the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (6-5 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) head to TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis Sunday to face Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS) in one of the better games on the Week 13 schedule. When these two teams last met, the Seahawks won, 41-20 in Seattle in 2013, with the game soaring Over the posted Total of 45 while the last time these two played here in Minneapolis, the then Brad Childress-coached Vikings bopped the Seahawks, 35-9 with the game going Under the Total of 47. All of the Trends hear scream Under: Minnesota is 8-1-1 Under this season; the Under is 9-1 ATS the L10 Seahawks games in December; the Under is 9-1 ATS the L9 Minnesota games on FieldTurf (TCF Bank Stadium); and, the Under is 20-7-1 ATS over the L28 Vikings games overall (74.1%). Note: TE Jimmy Graham is out for the Seahawks with what looks like a serious Injury.

NFL Pick: Under 43 -133 (Bet365)

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Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams
Lowest Total in Market: 42½ (MGM Mirage)
Consensus Total in Market: 43
Highest Total in Market: 43½ (Wynn Las Vegas)

Totals Trends, Thoughts
The Arizona Cardinals (8-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) head one Time Zone east (MST to CST) to St. Louis on Sunday to dance with the Rams (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS) in NFC West Week 13 play in a game which only has meaning to the visitors from the Sonoran Desert. When these two met earlier this year, the Rams upset the Cardinals at Home in Glendale, 24-22 as the game went Over the Total of 43½ back in Week 4 this season while in this meeting last season here at the Edward Jones Dome, Arizona won outright 12-6 as a 6-point underdog, with that one going way, way Under the 40½ posted Total. Despite the emergence of Rookie RB Todd Gurley, St. Louis seems frustrated and is falling apart like they usually do right about this time every season and rank 32nd and last in the NFL in Passing (173.9 ypg) and 31st in Points Scored (17.9 ppg). Conflicting Trends here with the Over 7-1 ATS the L8 Cardinals games vs. the NFC and the Over 9-3 ATS the L12 Cardinals games overall, but the under is 34-16-1 in the Rams L51 games in the month of December (68%) and St. Louis is 8-3 ATS Under this season heading in here.

NFL Pick: Under 44 -125 (Winner)

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lowest Total in Market: 45½ (MGM Mirage)
Consensus Total in Market: 46
Highest Total in Market: 46½ (Wynn Las Vegas)

Totals Trends, Thoughts
The Atlanta Falcons (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) welcome Rookie QB Jameis Winston and the suddenly upstart Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) in this NFC South Week 13 affair from Raymond James Stadium on Sunday afternoon. When these two met earlier this year in Atlanta, the Buccaneers defeated the Falcons 23-20 with the game going Under the 47½ Total while in this meeting last season in Tampa, Atlanta won 27-17 with that one also going Under, this time at 47. And the Unders rule the Roost here. Atlanta is 8-2-1 Under this season; the Unders is 13-3-1 ATS the L17 Falcons games against the NFC (81.3%); the Under is 8-2-1 ATS the L11 Road games for the Falcons; the Under is 18-7-1 ATS the L26 Atlanta games overall; and the Under is 10-3 ATS the L13 Buccaneers games in December. With Tampa Bay playing better and Atlanta scuffling, jumping on the Under train with all of those Trends and making a 47 Offshore.

NFL Pick: Under 47 -133 (bet365)

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New York Jets at New York Giants
Lowest Total in Market:
45
Consensus Total in Market: 45
Highest Total in Market: 45½ (Bookmaker, The Greek, Station Casinos)

Totals Trends, Thoughts
The NFC’s New York Giants (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) face the AFC’s New York Jets (6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) at MetLife Stadium on Sunday in a fun inter-conference, intra-New York state rivalry played in the state of New Jersey. Of course. When these two last played here in 2011, the Jets won 29-14 and the game went Under the posted Total of 45½. The Under is 12-5-1 ATS the last 18 Giants games in Week 13 but that’s sort of a dumb and random Trend despite its decent sample size and lopsidedness. With both teams needing the Win so bad—and more importantly, not needing a Loss in the respective situations these two teams are in—this should be a chess-match type affair with a sluggish start and little scoring.

NFL Picks: Under 46 -115 (Bet365), 1st Quarter Under 7½

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers
Lowest Total in Market: 43
Consensus Total in Market: 43½
Highest Total in Market: 44 (Sportsbook.ag, CarbonSports.com)

Totals Trends, Thoughts
Philip Rivers and the Chargers (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS) welcome QB Brock Osweiler and the Denver Broncos (9-2 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) to beautiful Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego for this Week 13 AFC West non-battle between two teams coming off impressive Wins in Week 12. Even though it will be Week 13, this will be the first meeting of the season—these two play again in Week 17 in Denver—and when they met last year here, the Broncos won 22-10 with that game going Under the Total of 49½. Broncos 1st Quarter Unders kept up their torrid Under pace last week, moving to 10-1 ATS on the season on Monday Night Football (Patriots 7 Broncos 0) and the Under is 9-4-1 ATS the L14 Broncos games on Grass (Qualcomm Stadium) however the Over is 8-2 ATS the L10 Denver games in Week 13.

NFL Pick: 1st Quarter Under 7½

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders
Lowest Total in Market:
44
Consensus Total in Market: 44
Highest Total in Market: 44½ (Wynn Las Vegas, Island Casino)

Totals Trends, Thoughts
The Kansas City Chiefs (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) head to O.co Coliseum in Oakland on Sunday afternoon to face David Carr and the Raiders (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) in this huge AFC West game for both teams who won on Sunday in Week 12. This is the first Regular Season meeting between the two—they meet again at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 17 in the Regular Season finale—and in this game last season in Oakland, the Raiders won 24-20 with the game going Over the posted Total of 41½. Trend-wise here, the Under is 19-9-2 the L30 Chiefs games versus the AFC West; the Under is 15-5 ATS the L20 meetings in this series (75%); the Over is 13-3-1 ATS the L17 Raiders games against the AFC West; and, the Over is 9-3-2 ATS the L14 Oakland games overall with the team passing more with Carr and Rookie WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree joining the Roster this season.

NFL Pick: Under 45 -125 (Winner)

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Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots
Lowest Total in Market: 48½
Consensus Total in Market: 48½
Highest Total in Market: 49

Totals Trends, Thoughts
The New England Patriots (10-1 SU, 5-3-3 ATS) and QB Tom Brady welcome the fading Philadelphia Eagles (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS)—who lost to Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving, 45-14—to Gillette Stadium where the hosts have been dominant of late in Sunday night for this inter-conference meeting. The last time these two met, the Patriots won 38-20 in 2011, with the game going well Over the posted Total of 50½ while in the last meeting here in New England, the Patriots won 31-28 with that one also going Over (51) as the Patriots were laying one of the highest number of points in game in NFL Point Spread history—25—back in 2007. Trend-wise, the Over 15-4 ATS the L19 Eagles games in Week 13, the Over is 9-3 ATS the L12 Philadelphia games in December while Eagles Unders are 7-4 ATS this season. However, with the Eagles Defense being so porous and New England being mad coming in after a Loss (Denver) and the Over 49-23 the L72 Patriots games on FieldTurf (Gillette Stadium), backing the Over is the solid call here.

NFL Pick: Over 48 -125 (bet365)

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Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Lowest Total in Market:
No Line
Consensus Total in Market: No Line (Open: 48½, VegasInsider Consensus)
Highest Total in Market: No Line

Totals Trends, Thoughts
There’s no number up now for this massive Sunday night primetime game for now as Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5 SU, 5-4-2 ATS) QB Ben Roethlisberger is Questionable and Indianapolis Colts (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) QB Andrew Luck is Out, so with Matt Hasselbeck for sure in and the difference between a Roethlisberger and Landry Jones start for Pittsburgh so immense, the linemakers wisely want to wait on this sexy Week 13 game from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The last time these two AFC sides met, the Steelers won 51-34 here in The Steel City last year with the game going Over the posted 48 Total by 37 points as the Steelers went over themselves. The Under is 14-3 the L13 Colts games played in the month of December but the Under is 14-3 the L13 17 Indianapolis games played on Grass (Heinz Field). With the Under 8-1-1 the L10 Steelers games vs. the AFC, the Under 10-3 ATS the L13 Pittsburgh tilts against teams with Losing Records, questions at QB and the game meaning so much for two 6-5 teams still in the thick of things, the Under seems more logical here (when a number comes out) although heavy Passing is to be expected.

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Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Lowest Total in Market:
41½ (SIA)
Consensus Total in Market: 42
Highest Total in Market: 42½ (Heritage, The Greek, Treasure Island, Coast Casinos)

Totals Trends, Thoughts
The Dallas Cowboys (2-8 SU, 2-6 ATS, L7) head to Landover, Maryland and FedExField on Monday Night Football to face the Home-loving Washington Redskins (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) in a big game for the Redskins possibly in terms of hanging on to small and maybe non-existent Playoff hopes, especially with Dallas QB Tony Romo now Out for Season with a Collarbone injury and Matt Cassel in trying to do God’s work with The Messiah out. When these two met last year in the Regular Season here in Landover, Dallas rolled to a 44-17 victory, with the Total easily going Over (48). The Under is 7-3 ATS the L10 in Week 13 Redskins games and with this being so meaningless in so many ways, lean Under if not NoDoz.

 

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NFL WEEK 13 FREE TOTALS PICKS: 49ers-Bears Under 44 -120 (5Dimes), Jaguars-Titans Under 44 -133 (bet365), Texans-Bills Under 42 -110 (MGM Mirage), Panthers-Saints Over 48 -125 (bet365), Seahawks-Vikings Under 43 -133 (bet365), Falcons-Buccaneers Under 47 -133 (bet365), Broncos-Chargers 1st Quarter Under 7½, Chiefs-Raiders Under 45 -125 (Winner), Eagles-Patriots Over 48 -125 (bet365)