NFL Picks: Week 13 Game-by-Game ATS Predictions to Rake In Profits

Kevin Stott

Monday, November 30, 2015 3:33 PM GMT

Let’s look at each game this week from the context of what we know with what happened in Week 12, the NFL odds are out and we are ready to handicap some profitable NFL picks.

Week 13 of the NFL Regular Season schedule kicks off on Thursday night with the Lions hosting the Green Bay Packers in Detroit followed by a lackluster Sunday with only a couple of great potential games including the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks heading to Minneapolis to play the Vikings and the Indianapolis Colts in the Steel City to face the Steelers both on Sunday afternoon. 

 

Thursday, December 3, 2015
Green Bay Packers -3, 47 vs. Detroit Lions (Pinnacle): Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS) head across Lake Michigan to Ford Field in Detroit on Thursday night to face the suddenly rejuvenated Detroit Lions (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS) in an NFC North affair important to the visitors and a game in which both teams will strangely get the normal 6 Days of Rest after both playing on Thanksgiving in Week 12 last Thursday. When these two teams met at Lambeau Field in Week 10 earlier this season, the Packers were upset by Detroit, 18-16, losing outright as 10½-point favorites while in this meeting last year here in the Motor City, Green Bay lost 19-7 in Week 3 getting 1½ points. Expect the Lions to have much more trouble winning here having already shocked Green Bay and with the Packers coming off that Loss to Chicago last week. The Packers are 6-3 ATS the L9 in this series. Green Bay was made a 6-point chalk in the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year odds released late Spring and the Advanced Line here was also Packers -6, so you can see what the Lions thrashing of the Eagles and the Bears upset at Green Bay on Thanksgiving did to the number. Although it seems the value may now be on a desperate Green Bay side, the Lions can Win this with guys like Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Rookie Ameer Abdullah all clicking.

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Sunday, December 6, 2015
San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears -7, 43 (Pinnacle)
: Jay Cutler and the upstart Chicago Bears (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) welcome Blaine Gabbert and the San Francisco 49ers (3-8 SU, 5-6 ATS) to Soldier Field this Sunday afternoon for this Week 13 game which matters to the hosts because of their Turkey Day night upset win at Lambeau Field. The last time these two teams played, the Bears won 28-20 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara last season as 8-point underdogs while the last time these two met in Chicago, the Lovie Smith-coached Bears thrashed the Niners, 41-10 and covered ATS as steep 16-point favorites back in 2006 when Daniel Powter’s song “Bad Day” almost ended Civilization As We Know It both from overplay and dry rot. San Francisco has scored the least number of points in the NFL (152) and will be losing 2 Body Clock Hours traveling east the 1,615 miles from San Francisco (PST) to Chicago (CST). Still leaning Bears and electric Rookie Jeremy Langford before they hibernate for the Winter.

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Cincinnati Bengals -7 (William Hill) vs. Cleveland Browns: Andy Dalton and the red-hot Cincinnati Bengals (9-2 SU, 8-1-2 ATS) head upstate to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland on Sunday to face QB Josh McCown and the Browns (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS, vs. Ravens on Monday Night Football; Browns -3½, bet365) in an AFC North affair which will only matter to the visitors and WR AJ Green. What can Green do for you? When these two AFC North sides met earlier this year in Cincinnati, the Bengals rolled 31-10 and covered ATS, laying 13 points while in the last meeting here in the city that’s home to the Rock N’ Roll Hall of Fame and LeBron James (Akron), the Bengals shut out the Browns, 30-0, winning outright as 2½-point underdogs. With the Bengals playing for postseason positioning in the AFC, coming off a battering of the Rams on Sunday, 31-7 and Cleveland so bad, expect a double-digit Win from Cincinnati here in relatively easy fashion, despite the Buckeye State rivalry.

Free NFL Pick: Bengals -7 (William Hill)

 

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans -2½, 43 (Pinnacle): Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7 SU, 6-5) head to LP Field in Nashville to face Rookie QB Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans (2-9 SU, 4-7 ATS) next Sunday in an AFC South Week 13 affair and quick turnaround rematch of their TNF game in Week 11, won and covered (-3) by the Jaguars, 19-13. In last year’s meeting between these two here in the Volunteer State, the Titans won 16-14 but failed to cover as 4-point chalks and even though teams are better than last season, this still seems like it could be a low-scoring, boring affair like the two aforementioned. On Sunday, both lost to AFC West teams—Jacksonville to the Chargers and Tennessee to the Raiders—so the only way one of the two will finish with an above-.500 record is if the Jaguars finish 5-0. Hardy, har, har, har. The Titans are an abysmal 1-8-1 ATS the L10 against Jacksonville and 1-4 ATS the L5 at Home.

Free NFL Pick: Jaguars +2½ (Pinnacle)

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Houston Texans vs. Buffalo Bills -3, 41½ (Pinnacle): The Buffalo Bills (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) welcome the suddenly “Where did y’all come from?” Houston Texans (6-5 ATS, 6-5 ATS) and now starting QB Brian Hoyer (Concussion) to potentially chilly Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo here in Week 12. The last time these two AFC teams played, the Bills lost 23-17 at Houston last years and failed to cover as 2½-point underdogs while in the last meeting here Upstate New York, then Dick Jauron-coached Buffalo lost to the Texans, 31-10, failing to cover ATS as 3½-point underdogs back in 2009. The Texans are an impressive 3-0 ATS the L3 in this once-in-awhile series between maybe AFC Wild Card hopefuls this season. JJ Watt and Houston are playing much-improved Defense and are back in the Playoff hunt and can definitely win this game with WRs DeAndre Hopkins and Nate Washington and TE Ryan Giffin (4 receptions, 72 yards, TD, 18.0 ypc on Sunday).

Free NFL Pick: Texans +3½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins -4½ (William Hill): Why does this spread see so high? Because Baltimore Ravens (3-7 SU, 2-7-1 ATS, vs. Browns on MNF; Odds: Browns -3½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)) Ravens QB Joe Flacco (Knee, ACL, MCL) is done for the season. Here the Blackbirds head to Sun Life Stadium in Miami Gardens on Sunday afternoon to face the host Miami Dolphins (4-7 ATS, 4-7 ATS) and Ndamukong Suh and in a pretty much meaningless AFC inter-divisional Week 13 affair after the Fishies Loss on Sunday in Week 12 at the J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets! When these two last met last season here in Miami Gardens, the Ravens won 28-13 getting 3 points and even with Flacco out for the season and 37-year-old backup Matt Schaub in (Bears releasee Jimmy Clausen is now Baltimore’s #3 guy), Baltimore can filet the Fish here and are worth consideration both ATS and SU still even though this was (Dolphins minus) 6½ on the Advanced Line. The Ravens are spotless 5-0 ATS in the L5 meetings in this series and Baltimore is 5-1 ATS the L6 meetings here in South Florida. In Edgar Allan Poe and Matt Schaub we trust.

Free NFL Pick: Ravens +5 (BetOnline)

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Carolina Panthers -7, 49½ (Pinnacle) vs. New Orleans Saints: Two things here: First, this game was moved from its originally scheduled 1 p.m. EDT Time slot to 4:25 p.m. EDT as part of the NFL’s Flexible Scheduling plan, and second, the Advanced Line was Panthers -3½ so this 7 shows how much the Carolina Turkey Day romp over the Cowboys—as tabbed here at SBR in a profitable 5-1 holiday—and the Saints Loss on Sunday to Houston affected Oddsmakers’ perceptions. If you laid the 3½ early in the NFL odds , well done. Maybe. Anyway, Cam Newton (21-15 ATS on Road, 5-0 ATS this season) and the Panthers (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS) head to The Big Easy Sunday afternoon to face Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (4-7 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Week 13 play. The last time these two met, the Panthers won 27-22 in Charlotte but failed to cover as 10-point favorites earlier this season while last year here in Nawlins where women pop their tops for Beads for some dumb reason, the Cats actually started this gargantuan 15-game Regular Season Win Streak by beating up on the Saints, 41-10 as 9-point underdogs in Week 15. LB Luke Kuechly and Carolina are 11-3 ATS in its L14 games overall Away at New Orleans and are the obvious call here. Still.

Free NFL Pick: Panthers -6½ (BetVictor)

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Seattle Seahawks -1, 42 (Pinnacle) vs. Minnesota Vikings: Russell Wilson and the the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (6-5 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) head to TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis next Sunday to face Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS) in one of the better games on the schedule for this rather dull batch of Week 13 games. When these two teams last met, the Seahawks won, 41-20 in 2013, covering as 13½-point chalks in Seattle while the last time these two played here in Minneapolis, the then Brad Childress-coached Vikings bopped the Seahawks, 35-9 as 10½-point favorites in 2009. But both of these franchises are vastly different than in 2009. The way Seattle has closed in the 2nd Half of the Regular Season these L3 seasons has given them a certain level of Expectation and Confidence, and sitting at 6-5 heading in here with fear of not making the Postseason, expect the Seahawks and RB Thomas Rawls to somehow find a way to beat the Purple People Eaters in a low-scoring game. Note TE Jimmy Graham is out for the Seahawks.

Free NFL Pick: Seahawks -1 -105 (Bet365)

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Arizona Cardinals -5½, 43 (Pinnacle) vs. St. Louis Rams: Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and the Arizona Cardinals (8-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) head one Time Zone east (MST to CST) to the Gateway City of St. Louis on Sunday afternoon in Week 13 play to dance with the Rams (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS) in an NFC West date which only has meaning to the visitors. When these two met earlier this year, the Rams upset the Cardinals at Home in Glendale, 24-22 as 7-point underdogs while in this meeting last season here at the Edward Jones Dome, Arizona won outright 12-6 as a 6-point underdog. The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in the L5 overall in this series—that lone ATS Loss that aforementioned last meeting—while Arizona and Head Coach Bruce Arians are also 4-1 ATS the L5 here in The Show Me State. Despite the emergence of Rookie RB Todd Gurley, St. Louis seems frustrated and is falling apart like they usually do right about this time every season and rank 32nd and last in the NFL in Passing (173.9 ypg) and 31st in Points Scored (17.9 ppg). History repeats itself of Wall Street as well as it does on the Gridiron. And it seems with no 5’s around, if you want to back Arizona and lay 5 (points), buying the half-point is the only way to go here Sunday.

Free NFL Pick: Cardinals -5½ (Heritage)

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2½, 45 (Pinnacle): A flipped favorite here since the Advance Line which had the Falcons as 1½-point chalks, Matt Ryan and the slumping Atlanta Falcons (6-5 SU, 4-7 ATS) welcome Rookie QB Jameis Winston and the suddenly upstart Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) in this NFC South Week 13 affair from Raymond James Stadium next Sunday afternoon between two teams who lost in Week 12 but will still matter to both sides in the wacky NFC. When these two met earlier this year in Atlanta, the Buccaneers defeated the Falcons outright as 8-point chalks, 23-20—which started this recent Falcons slide—and covered ATS as 7-point favorites while in this meeting last season in Tampa, Atlanta won 27-17 laying 3. The Falcons are 3-2 ATS the L5 in this series and the way they have been playing (L4), it’s no surprise they are no longer favorites. Still lean Swashbucklers with your NFL picks, but wary now.

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New York Jets -1, 45 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) vs. New York Giants: Yet another flipping of Advanced Line favorites—the G-Men were 1-point chalks last Wednesday—in this Empire State battle which is considered a Home game for the NFC’s New York Giants (5-6 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) against the AFC’s New York Jets (6-5 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) at MetLife Stadium on Sunday. And this one could actually be a very important game in the entire context of the NFL and the ultimate Playoff scenario with both teams in the thick of the NFL Playoff race. When these two last played here in 2011, the Jets won 29-14 and covered as 3-point favorites and Darrelle Revis and New York AFC is a spotless 5-0 ATS in the L5 meetings but it seems the Jets are descending for landing while the G-Men are just getting serious about the season...like they always do about this time. This seems like a bad spot for the Jets and this should be great entertainment with Odell Beckham Jr. showing again why supreme Speed and Athleticism matter in sports. Still like New York NFC although less after being embarrassed in Washington, but then again everyone seems to be getting embarrassed by the Redskins who are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in Landover with W’s over the Giants, Saints, Bucs, Eagles and Rams. Word. This one? Best watched probably.

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Denver Broncos -4 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) vs. San Diego Chargers: Philip Rivers and the Chargers (3-8 SU, 4-7 ATS) welcome QB Brock Osweiler and the Denver Broncos (9-2 SU, 7-3-1 ATS) to beautiful Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego for this Week 13 AFC West non-battle between two teams coming off impressive Wins in Week 12. Even though it will be Week 13, this will be the first meeting of the season—these two play again in Week 17 in Denver—and when they met last year here, the Broncos won 22-10 and covered ATS as 4-point favorites. Denver is 4-0 ATS the L4 trips here in this series and the easy call here as Osweiler has all the tools, size and Common Sense to be a solid NFL QB and will now grow weekly with Uncle Peyton possibly finally put out to pasture after trying to push Father Time for one more year—like the Los Angeles Lakers Kobe Bryant—and finding out that Father Time gives Zero Cronuts about what professional athletes and their Agents and Egos want. Sorry. Off on another tangent. Get a grip, mate. Focus. The Advanced Line was -6.

Free NFL Pick: Broncos -4 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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Kansas City Chiefs -3,44 (Pinnacle) vs. Raiders: Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) head west to the O.co Coliseum in Oakland to face David Carr and the Raiders (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) in this huge AFC West game for both teams who won on Sunday in Week 12. This is the first Regular Season meeting between the two—they meet again at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 17 in the Regular Season finale—and SS Eric Berry and the Chiefs are 3-1 ATS the L4 against Oakland and and an impressive 9-3 ATS the L12 in this series on the Road here on Oaktown. Andy Reid’s Chiefs may be the most underrated team in the NFL while the Silver and Black seem to be reverting to their old ways, although Sunday’s Win at Tennessee kept their slim AFC Wild Card hopes alive. Only 3’s in the current market late Sunday.

Free NFL Pick: Chiefs -3 (5Dimes)

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots -11½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook): The New England Patriots (10-1 SU, 5-3-3 ATS) and QB Tom Brady welcome the fading Philadelphia Eagles (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS)—who lost to Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving, 45-14—to Gillette Stadium where the hosts have been dominant of late on Sunday night for this inter-conference meeting. The last time these two met, the Patriots won 38-20 in 2011, easily covering as 3-point favorites while in the last meeting here in New England, the Patriots won 31-28 but the hosts were giving one of the highest number of points in game in NFL Point Spread history—25—in 2007, failing to cover by 22 points. The Eagles are 7-2 ATS the L9 in this series but if you take Philadelphia and QB Mark Sanchez you may be looking at the number and not reality. Ne England will do a Rain Dance on the Eagles head, dooming Head Coach Chip Kelly even more as Playoff hopes slip in a high-scoring game in which New England, as beat up as they are (Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman out for Regular Season, Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski banged up) may almost go Over the posted Total themselves, likely scoring between 37-45 against this very paltry Philadelphia Defense. The Advanced Line here was 9½. Crady and the host Patriots will be mad after Sunday’s night’s OT Loss in Denver.

Free NFL Pick: Patriots -11½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) 

 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers -7 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook): This Primetime game from Heinz Field in Pittsburgh this coming Sunday night between red-hot QB Matt Hasselbeck and the host Colts (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) and Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5 SU, 5-4-2 ATS) in a massive AFC game with both potential divisional (Colts) and Wild Card (Steelers and Colts) implications and heading in with identical 6-5 SU records. The last time these two talented and entertaining AFC sides met, the Steelers won 51-34 here in Naptown last year getting 4½ points. This one should be good TV and although it will be tough, Indianapolis could definitely go into The Steel City and steal this one. But probably not with Pittsburgh losing in Seattle on Sunday in Week 12. It seems like points will be scored, Weather and crappy Heinz Field playing surface be damned.

 

Monday, December 7, 2015
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins -4, 43 (Pinnacle): Talk about your classic favorite flip-flops. The Advanced Point Spread here had Dallas as 3 (Even) favorites but that was before the Thanksgiving Day Collarbone injury (again) to QB Tony Romo who is now Out for Season of the Cowboys (2-8 SU, 2-6 ATS, L7). Here in Landover, Maryland at FedEx Field against the Washington Redskins (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) in a big game for the Redskins possibly in terms of hanging on to small Garnet and Gold Playoff thread, it seems the hosts are the better team and are a better value with Dallas fixin’ to implode after realizing 2015 wasn’t what they thought it was. Waaaah. When these two met last year in the Regular Season here in Landover, Dallas rolled to a 44-17 victory, easily covering as 6-point chalks in Week 17. The Redskins are 8-2 ATS the L10 in this series and a powerful 7-1 ATS the L8 here at Home vs. America’s Former Team. Also, Washington is 4-2 ATS at Home this year and seems to playing twice as good football at FedExField as they do on the Road.

Free NFL Pick: Redskins -3½ (Wynn Las Vegas)

NFL WEEK 13 EARLY WEEK PICKS: Bengals -7 over Browns (Pinnacle), Jaguars +2½ over Titans (Pinnacle), Texans +3½ over Bills (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), Ravens +5 over Dolphins (William Hill), Panthers -6½ over Saints (BetVictor), Seahawks -1 -105 over Vikings (bet365), Cardinals -5½ over Rams (Heritage), Broncos -4 over Chargers (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), Chiefs -3 over Raiders (5Dimes), Patriots -11½ over Eagles (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), Redskins -3½ over Cowboys (Wynn Las Vegas)