NFL Picks: Week 13 Fades & Games to Avoid

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 26, 2013 2:29 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2013 2:29 PM UTC

Which of the Week 13 matchups we are avoiding at all cost with our NFL picks, and why do we believe that certain betting lines offer little to no value for our sports betting needs?

While it might seem like a great idea to overindulge on the holiday weekend, go carefully especially when making NFL picks. With so many football contests to choose from in college and professional football starting Thursday, back away from the computer, take a deep breath and think clearly. In reviewing the NFL odds, I have three games to stay away from like the turkey gravy that was not put in the refrigerator overnight.

NFL Picks: Week 13 Betting Odds Report

Quarterback Battle in Cleveland?

With Jason Campbell probably out, Brandon Weeden is like a cold that will not go away and be given a third shot this season alone at being the starting quarterback. Football bettors and NFL football handicappers were so excited about the news they dumped Cleveland from -9.5 to -7 against Jacksonville. 

Quarterback Chad Henne led his team to their second win in three games, but let’s be honest, nobody is backing up the Brink’s truck to offer the former Michigan QB anything more than a backup spot and the Jaguars are a lot like Iraq a decade or more ago, lacking weapons of mass destruction in the football sense. 

With two offenses who struggle to execute properly and are mistaken-prone, it is would seem a challenge to use this AFC contest for one of your NFL picks.


NFC Teams on the Rise Makes for Difficult Choice

Both Arizona and Philadelphia are in top form, the Cardinals on a stunning four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) and the Eagles soaring to a trio of W’s and covers. 

The Cardinals offense is not going to look like vintage like New England from 2005-10, but it is a dramatic improvement from last season and an upgrade even from earlier this year. 

Give Carson Palmer time and a semblance of a running game and he can still hit open receivers down the field and Arizona has Michael Floyd, Andre Roberts and tight end Rob Housler, to go along with the great Larry Fitzgerald. Toss in a defense which is seventh in the NFL in total defense and the Redbirds have the attention of sportsbooks setting odds. 

Philadelphia has rebounded from a two-game offensive slump against the Cowboys and Giants, with Nick Foles operating Chip Kelly’s offense effectively. With Foles being on target to dangerous wide receivers like DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper, this has increased the size of the running lanes for LeSean McCoy and he is back to his elusive self. 

Quietly, the defense has gotten to the point of conceding only 17.4 points per game in their last seven outings and has moved up to No. 5 in yards per point allowed. 

Here we have two good teams that are running at near peak efficiency which makes for a rugged call on the favorite or underdog.


Toronto Says “Thanks For Nothing”

Several years ago, with how dreadful Buffalo has since this century started, the Bills ownership saw all the empty seats every year and decided to “reward” their loyal fans from Canada with a “home” game in Toronto. Forget the gouging attempts at pricing to fleece football fans north of the border; they were being given an opportunity to see “real NFL football”. 

The novelty wore off quickly and the Bills still stunk, so Buffalo management thought they would provide a goodwill gesture and scheduled Atlanta for a trip to Toronto, after playing in the NFC championship last season and being a playoff contender the last several seasons. 

Well, for Buffalo even this failed since Atlanta this season has turned into the Bills of the south at 2-9. The Bills are actually a favorite off a bye week and when reviewing the NFL odds, I have to report, Buffalo after romping the Jets 37-14; they are 0-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog the last three seasons. Much like the leftover pumpkin pie, it might be time to sit this one out.


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