NFL Picks: Week 12 Value Plays You Will Be Thankful For Reading

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 24, 2015 8:52 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2015 8:52 PM UTC

Thank goodness all the bye weeks are completed and we can get back to the business of the sportsbooks generating betting odds so we have full complement of choices for NFL picks.

I can gladly say coming off a 4-1-1 week in NFL picks for the articles and accompanying videos, which included two winners for value plays here. With visions of turkey and sweet potatoes on my mind, I will block those thoughts out to be as focused as Tom Brady to make these selections.

The present listed NFL odds are courtesy of SBR's live odds board.


Miami is Lesser of Two Evils
The Dolphins and Jets are like a 1998 Ford Taurus, leaking oil badly. Miami is 4-6 and after brief excitement in winning twice with coaching change, they are 1-3 SU and ATS since. But what about the New York Jets? I have stated for years Ryan Fitzpatrick is a backup quarterback, but he keeps ending up as a starter. He is the perfect signal caller for teams that hope to make the playoffs, but never do. Just like at almost every stop he has made, the longer he plays the worse the team does and Gang Green is 1-4 and 0-4-1 ATS in his past five starts. Not a ringing endorsement for Miami, but at +3.5, I'll bait the hook with the Dolphins.

NFL Pick: Dolphins +3.5 (-110) at 5Dimes

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Riding the Kansas City Express
The numbers have been slow to come by on Buffalo and Kansas City conflict with the uncertain nature of Tyrod Taylor's injuries, but frankly it does not matter, T-squared or E.J. Manuel, anything under seven with Kansas City is good for this football handicapper. I was on the Chiefs here last week and coming right back with them in what now is a meaningful matchup in the AFC for wild card picture. Buffalo does have a couple good offensive weapons, but a Rex Ryan team never has the right quarterback and with Kansas City defense holding last four opponents to 39 total points, not sure how the Bills score. Credit to Andy Reid for weathering the storm and he stuck with the running game despite losing Jamaal Charles, averaging 31 carries a game, which makes Alex Smith a better and more effective play-action passer. K.C. is a solid 8-3 ATS in last 11 home games and wins by 9.

NFL Pick: Chiefs -5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Not Sure Anymore What Carolina Needs To Do
I realize I am starting to sound like Uncle Frank who comes over every year for the holiday's and tells the same stories and jokes that stopped being funny around 1999, but once again Carolina is more underrated than Judi Dench who played 'M' in the James Bond movies. The Panthers opened as one-point underdog at Dallas. Really! As I keep preaching, Carolina is a very good football and has won 15 of last 16 games played, covering the spread 11 times. Cam Newton is getting more comfortable weekly with his no-name receiving group and is assembling more big plays. I understand Dallas is public betting team and the thinking of Cowboys fans reminds me of SEC backers now that Tony Romo is back, unrealistic expectations. Maybe Dallas wins the game, just know this, since 2009, if favored at home, the 'Boys are 6-22 ATS. Superior value with Carolina.

NFL Pick: Carolina Panthers PK (-105) at Bovada

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