NFL Picks: Week 12 Value Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 6:56 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2014 6:56 PM UTC

Missed one game with these value-based sports picks, however, that makes me 7-2 here at Sports Book the last three weeks taking on the sports books and on the hunt for more. 

I am not an underdog of favorite player, I make every effort to find the right side of any contest and it just turns out to be this week I prefer three favorites for NFL picks against the betting odds.

Atlanta Making Progress, Could be on Uptick
I completely understand anyone disagreeing with me as a NFL football handicapper picking Atlanta to cover against Cleveland. The Falcons are 4-6 and tied for first place in the pitiful NFC South, in which Tampa Bay at 2-8 is still in the race. Just here me out.

Atlanta is obviously not the same bunch that was 13-3 a few seasons ago. Nevertheless, I am impressed that a notoriously dreadful outdoors team was 2-1 SU and ATS in their last three games and easily could have been 3-0 SU if they had not blown 21-0 lead in London to Detroit.

Quarterback Matt Ryan and his teammates are back in the controlled atmosphere they prefer, where they are better dictating the tempo of games. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong, but Cleveland really struggled against Houston last week and since they were such a surprise the first half of the season, I seriously question if the Browns will hold up the rest of the season, even with Josh Gordon back after suspension. With Cleveland 1-9 ATS after a double loss as home favorite, I’ll back the Birds.

NFL Football Free Pick- Atlanta -3


New England’s Offense is the Difference against Detroit
Tom Brady and the Patriots offense are palpitating. Since being crushed by Kansas City on Monday night, New England is averaging 40.5 points a game in winning six in a row and posting 5-1 ATS record. With Detroit boasting the No.1 total defense and scoring defense (15.6 PPG) in the NFL, it is hard to imagine the Patriots will approach their recent figures even at home.

Where New England has value at under a touchdown favorites is the lack of offense by Detroit. The Lions are 27th in yards per point and are averaging an eye-brow raising 18.1 PPG. The problem seems to be a combination of Matthew Stafford and first-year offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi not in harmony.

Detroit is capable of keeping the game around the NFL odds, but in the end the Pats move to 7-0 ATS as home favorite of seven or less.

NFL Football Free Pick- New England -6.5


Dallas Has Too Many Weapons for the Giants
The Cowboys will have fresh legs off their bye week while New York has put forth a lot of effort to hang with Seattle and San Francisco, which ended up as losses and non-covers. While the Giants will have motivation playing at home on Sunday night against a division rival, the matchup favors the Cowboys.

Dallas has the best offensive rushing line in the NFL and is second in yards gained at 152.7 per contest. New York is dead last versus the run at 145 YPG allowed. Even if Big Blue’s defensive front seven plays outstanding, Tony Romo will attack the G-Men 15 or more yards down the field between the hash marks with passes to Jason Witten and Dez Bryant, which is the greatest weakness of New York secondary. Eli Manning will not be able to counter and the Cowboys move to 13-3 ATS on the road off a bye week. 

Early Bettors Support Cowboys vs Giants

NFL Free Pick- Dallas -3

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