NFL Picks: Week 12 NFL Value Picks

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 19, 2013 3:41 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 19, 2013 3:41 PM GMT

With sportsbooks now listing all lines, which of the Week 12 betting odds do we believe hold the best value for our picks this weekend?

I’m the first one to admit, it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster ride with my SBR Forum NFL picks. However, the last two weeks have been good at 4-0-2 against the spread, taking me to 15-11-3 ATS for the season. Let’s see if my luck will continue against the betting odds this week.

Be sure to take a look at our NFL Picks: Week 12 Betting Odds Report.

Baltimore Poised to Ground Jets

With all the personnel losses, the chances of the Ravens even having a chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions were slim according to most NFL football handicappers. The season has gone from dim to bleak with just one victory since the second week of October.

Nonetheless, this is a tremendous spot for the Baltimore to bust out against the New York Jets at home. The Flyboys are like conventioneers hitting the strip club scene; they tease you with home upsets against the Patriots and Saints, but are 1-4 SU on the road and are being trashed by 17.2 points a game. 

With Baltimore 8-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, I see at least a 13-point victory.

NFL Football Free Pick- Baltimore -4

[gameodds]16/227035/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Kansas City on the Warpath with San Diego up Next

Some making sports picks might consider this a ‘sandwich game’ for Kansas City, having just lost to Denver and having them on deck. But my guess Andy Reid is too smart to allow his team to fall into that trap and will take the tried and true “one game at a time” approach for a division battle with San Diego.

In looking over the NFL odds, the Chargers are officially in free fall, on a 0-3 SU and ATS bender. The Chiefs offense would not be described as dynamic, yet there is little to believe they should not enjoy a great deal of success against San Diego, who is 30th in rushing yards per attempt (4.8) and 31st in yards per pass attempt at 7.9.

Here is the clincher, the Chargers are seventh in the NFL in total offense, but are 29th in yards per point, suggesting they cannot close the deal and Kansas City has the finest defense in the yards per carry category.

NFL Football Free Pick- Kansas City -5

[gameodds]16/227036/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

San Francisco Offense Finds Itself in Washington 

The 49ers passing offense has been like the 2013 Lone Ranger movie, it has bombed. San Francisco might as well just run the read option all the time since they are dead last in passing offense at 168 yards a contest. 

The reasons are varied from the lack of perimeter weapons all season to the regression of Colin Kaepernick. No matter, help should be on the way in the form of Washington’s defense. 

The Redskins are 28th in total defense for those looking over sportsbooks numbers and you should also be advised Washington in 32nd in yards per pass attempt allowed at eight. This is a near perfect confidence building opponent for the Niners and matched with their No. 7 defense, they Frisco wins by 10 or more. 

NFL Football Free Pick- San Francisco -4

[gameodds]16/227043/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]

Which games are we avouding? Find out in our NFL Picks: Week 12 Fades & Games to Avoid article.

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