NFL Picks: Week 12 Advanced Lines From Westgate Las Vegas

Kevin Stott

Saturday, November 21, 2015 3:48 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015 3:48 PM UTC

All Open Dates will be over and all 32 NFL teams will be playing in Week 12, so fresh from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in Las Vegas is the Advanced NFL Line for Week 12 of the Regular Season.

Thursday, November 26, 2015—Thanksgiving Day
Philadelphia Eagles -3 Even at Detroit Lions
: The Philadelphia Eagles (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS; vs. Buccaneers Sunday) head to Ford Field in Detroit next Thursday to face the Detroit Lions (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS; vs. Raiders Sunday) in this Thanksgiving Day opener from the Motor City. The last time these two NFC teams played, Matthew Stafford (17-24-1 ATS at Home, 0-3 ATS this season) and Detroit won 26-23 in Philadelphia in 2012 but failed and won outright as 3½-point underdogs while in the last meeting here in Detroit, the then Rod Marinelli-coached Lions were whacked, 56-21 as 5-point underdogs in 2007. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS the L8 in this series. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year opened Detroit as 1½-point favorites on this game back in the late Spring, so you can see how much perceptions have changed for Detroit with their horrific season.


Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys -1: Wut. Has the blonde cocktail waitress at the SuperBook been serving drinks to Kornegay and Salmons over the other side of the counter lately? Nope. Just an Advanced Point Spread assuming Dallas QB Tony Romo is back and healthy and that this team with nothing to possibly play for now would love to knock Cam Newton (20-15 ATS on Road, 4-0 ATS this season) and the Panthers (9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS, at Titans Sunday) from the ranks of the unbeaten. But still, this meeting between Carolina and the Dallas Cowboys (2-7 SU, 2-7 ATS, L7; at Dolphins Sunday) on Thanksgiving Day afternoon from AT&T Stadium in Arlington next Thursday sure seems like one of the best teams in the NFL as an underdog against one of the worst teams in the NFL who looks wrongly favored at this point in Time. The last time these two teams played, the Cowboys won 19-14 in Charlotte in 2012 and covered as 2½-point favorites while the last meeting here in the Tar Heel State, the then John Fox-coached Panthers lost 21-7 as 8½-underdogs. America’s Team, the Cowboys, are 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series.

NFL Pick: Panthers +1


Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers -7: Jay Cutler and the upstart Chicago Bears (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS; vs. Broncos Sunday) head across the Illinois state line to America’s Dairyland to face Aaron Rodgers (Right Shoulder) and the Green Bay Packers (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, at Vikings Sunday) on Thanksgiving Day night in a game in which the visitors can actually tie Green Bay with a 6-5 record with a Win if everything goes right. When these two met earlier this season in Week 1 at Soldier Field in Chicago, the Packers won 31-23 and covered ATS as 6-point favorites. Last season in Green Bay, the Packers walloped Chicago, 55-14, easily covering the 9-point spread and the Packers are now 9-1 ATS the L10 against the Bears and 3-1 ATS the L4 here in Brown County. The Packers are 4-5 SU and 4-5 ATS on Thursdays and 3-2 ATS at Home in Lambeau Field on Thursday nights while the Bears are 4-5 SU and 2-6 ATS and 2-4 ATS on the Road on Thursday nights. Without prolific WR Jordy Nelson, Green Bay is seeing how hard it is to get back to the NFC Championship Game and what happens here should have significance in both the divisional and conference races.


Sunday, November 29, 2015
New Orleans Saints No Line at Houston Texans
: There is no Early Line on the NFL odds this game because Houston Texans (4-5 ATS, 4-5 ATS, vs. Jets Sunday) starting QB Brian Hoyer (Concussion) will reportedly not be playing in Week 11 against the Jets because he suffered Memory Loss, meaning backup TJ Yates will likely get the start against Drew Brees and the Saints (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, Open Date). Also, the Texans signed former Cowboys backup QB Brandon Weeden on Thursday. When these two teams last met, the Saints beat the Texans 40-33 and covered as 3-point favorites in New Orleans in 2012 while in the last meeting here at NRG Stadium in Houston, the Texans won 23-10 and covered as 1½-point favorites in 2007. Brees (56-49-4 ATS on Road) and the Who Dats will be coming in off their Bye Week and have had 13 Days Rest but were pummeled by the Redskins in Washington in their last game in Week 10 while the Texans entered Week 11 play with its Defense on a nice 10-quarter scoreless streak.


Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons -3 Even: Teddy Bridgewater and the Minnesota Vikings (6-2 SU, 7-1 ATS, at Raiders Sunday) face Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS, vs. Colts Sunday) in this NFC inter-divisional tilt from the Georgia Dome next Sunday in Atlanta in Week 12 play. The last time these two played, the Vikings defeated the Falcons, 41-28 last season (2014) in Minneapolis, easily covering as 5½-point favorites while in the last meeting here at Atlanta between the two, the Falcons won 24-14 as 10-point chalks, pushing the number in 2011. With the Vikings playing so well on the Road this season (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS), taking Minnesota and the early 3 points (-120) seems like a wise thing heading into Week 10 play.

NFL Pick: Vikings +3 -120


St. Louis Rams at Cincinnati Bengals -7: The St. Louis Rams (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, at Ravens Sunday) head to Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati to face the Bengals (8-1 SU, 7-1-1 ATS; at Cardinals on SNF) next Sunday afternoon in a Week 12 inter-conference clash which will be important to both teams. The last time these two met, the Bengals won 20-13 in 2011 in St. Louis, pushing as 7-point favorites while in the last game here in the Queen City (2007), Cincinnati won 19-10 but failed to cover by 1 points and 10-point chalks. The Rams and Head Coach Jeff Fisher—who have decided to go with Case Keenum in Week 10 over Nick Foles—have dominated this series ATS over the last decade, with St. Louis going 4-0-1 ATS the L5 overall in this series and 1-3 ATS the L4 here at Home in Cincinnati. But obviously, those were much worse Bengals teams than this tight unit.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts -3½: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS; at Eagles Sunday) and Rookie QB Jameis Winston head to Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis to face the Colts (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS, Open Date) and likely Colts backup QB Matt Hasselbeck and not Andrew Luck (Kidney). the last time these two played, the Colts lost, 24-17 at Tampa Bay in 2011 but covered ATS getting 10 points as the underdog while the last meeting here in Naptown, Indianapolis won, 34-19 in 2007 and also covered ATS in that one, this time giving 9 points as the favorite. The Colts—also without Rookie WR Phillip Dorsett (Mid-December return expected)—are 5-1 ATS in their L6 against the Buccaneers.

NFL Pick: Colts -3½


New York Giants at Washington Redskins PK: Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS, vs. Saints Sunday) welcome Eli Manning and the New York Giants (5-5 SU, 6-3-1 ATS, Open Date) to FedExField in Landover, Maryland next Sunday for this NFC East Week 12 game between two teams in the thick of the divisional race—but then again everyone in the NFC East is still in the thick of the race, right Tony? The last time these two met was in Week 4 of this Regular Season where New York defeated Washington, 32-21 at Home, covering as 3-point favorites while the last meeting here at FedExField was last season where the Giants rolled 45-13 in Week 3, winning outright as 3-point underdogs. The G-Men—who announced this week that WR Victor Cruz is done and will be having season-ending Calf Surgery—will be coming off of their Bye Week and will be playing on 13 Days Rest. New York is 5-0 ATS the L5 vs. the Redskins.

NFL Pick: Giants Pick ‘Em


Oakland Raiders -1½ at Tennessee Titans: This exciting Week 12 game from LP Field in Nashville next Sunday afternoon sees QB David Carr, Rookie Amari Cooper and the much-improved Oakland Raiders (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS; at Lions Sunday) heading to Opryland to face Rookie Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans (2-7 SU, 4-5 ATS; vs. Panthers Sunday) in an AFC inter-divisional game which will actually matter to both teams despite the .500 or sub-.500 records at that point in Time. When these two played last, the Titans won 23-19 in Oakland and covered as 2½-point chalks while the last meeting here in the Volunteer State saw the then Tom Cable-coached Raiders got smashed here in Nashville in Week 1 in 2007, 38-13 failing to cover ATS as 6½-point underdogs. The Titans are 7-2 ATS the L9 in this series here at Home at LP Field and previous stadia. Oakland has been historically bad travelling east—the Silver and Black will lose 3 Body Clock Hours going from EST to PST here so will be basically be playing the game at 10 a.m. (PST)—but Tennessee has been bad everywhere going 2-12-2 ATS its L16 against teams with a Losing record and a miserable 7-21-2 ATS its L30 overall (25.0%) heading into current Week 10 play.

NFL Pick: Raiders -1½


Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs -3 Even: Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chiefs (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS; at Chargers Sunday) play host to Tyrod Taylor and the Buffalo Bills (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS; beat Jets on Thursday Night Football) at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City next Sunday in this huge inter-divisional tilt which will surely have AFC Wild Card implications. The last time these two teams met, the Chiefs won outright, 17-13 last year in Buffalo getting 2½ points, while the last meeting here in Missouri was back in 2012 where the Bills won 35-17 outright as 3-point underdogs. The Bills are a dominating 6-2 ATS the L8 ATS overall in the series and 6-1 ATS the L7 on the Road at Arrowhead Stadium. But Head Coach Andy Reid has a much better Kansas City team than in those leaner years and the Bills were a little bit stronger. A good game to just watch, but not necessarily to consider it for your NFL picks.


Miami Dolphins at New York Jets -3½: Like the above game, this is another Week 12 AFC date which may have Wild Card implications as the New York Jets (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS; at Texans Sunday) welcome the Miami Dolphins (4-5 ATS, 4-5 ATS, vs. Cowboys Sunday) to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey next Sunday afternoon for a huge AFC East meeting and possible season-ending Loss for the Fish should that be their Fate. When these two met earlier this Regular Season, New York won 27-14 as 2½-point favorites in Week 4, easily covering ATS in Miami Gardens while in this game last season in Jersey, the Dolphins won 16-13 getting 3½ points as under-dolphins. The Jets are 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings and will probably need the Win here and would be a good pick if there was a way to get that ½ off the posted 3. This (laying the limited lumber) may seem like a bargain should the Cowpoke and Tony Romo hurt Miami’s feelings in Week 11.


San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars -1½: Philip Rivers and the Chargers (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS, vs. Chiefs Sunday) head to EverBank Field in Jacksonville next Sunday afternoon to face Blake Bortles and the Jaguars (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS; vs. Titans on TNF) in an inter-divisional AFC date which will actually mean something to the hosts and probably not the visitors. The last time these two played was in San Diego in 2014 where the Bolts won 33-14, easily covering as 11-point favorites while the last meeting here in the splendid Sunshine State saw the Chargers win 24-6 in 2013 and covering ATS, laying 7 points. The Jaguars will be coming in on 9 Days Rest after playing Tennessee on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 11 while San Diego will be travelling from California (PST) to Florida (EST) and losing 3 Body Clock Hours, basically meaning they will be playing at 10 a.m. their Time, like an hour after the ole Bacon and Eggs have settled in.


Arizona Cardinals -8 at San Francisco 49ers: Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald and the Arizona Cardinals (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS, vs. Bengals on SNF) head to Santa Clara, California an 1-year-old Levi’s Stadium to dance with possibly Blaine Gabbert at QB and the woe-is-me San Francisco 49ers (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS, at Seahawks Sunday) next Sunday in Week 12 NFC West play. When these two played earlier this season, the Cardinals rolled 47-7 in Week 4, easily covering as 7-point favorites while the last meeting here in The City By The City By The Bay saw Arizona win 32-20 and cover as 9½-point favorites last season (2014). The 49ers are 9-5 ATS the L14 vs. the Cardinals but San Francisco was had much better Rosters back then and had a real head Coach by the name of Jim Harbaugh. Woof. Woof.

NFL Pick: Cardinals -8


Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks -3 -120: Maybe the second-biggest game of Week 12 sees Russell Wilson and the the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (4-5 SU, 2-6-1 ATS; vs. 49ers on Sunday) playing host to Antonio Brown and the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4 SU, 5-3-2 ATS, Open Date) in a huge inter-conference meeting for both sides. The last time these two met, the Steelers shut out the Seahawks, 24-0 at Heinz Field in the Steel City while the last meeting here at CenturyLink Field in the Emerald City saw the Seahawks win by a 23-16 score at the old Seahawks Stadium in 2003. Seattle is 6-1 ATS the L7 here in this series, but as you can see, the last of those 7 meetings was way back in 2003 when we had more hair and more patience. Landry Jones and the Steelers will coming in with 13 Days of Rest with their welcome Bye Week coming in Week 10. With Injuries to Roethlisberger, C Maurkice Pouncey and RB Le’Veon Bell, this has been a tough season for the Black and Gold so far. But they’re still a huge threat.


New England Patriots -5½ at Denver Broncos: The defending Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots (9-0 SU, 5-2-2 ATS; vs. Bills on MNF) and QB Tom Brady (65-46-1 ATS on Road) head to Sports Authority Field in Denver to face the Broncos (7-2 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, at Bears Sunday) next Sunday evening in the marquee game of Week 12 and one which may see the hosts going with Brock Osweiler at QB over the injured, aging and statistically horrific 39-year-old Peyton Manning. When these two AFC giants last met, the Patriots hammered the Broncos, 43-21 last season as 3-point favorites in Gillette Stadium while the last meeting here in the Mile High City was in 2011 when the Patriots and Brady rolled to a 41-23 victory as 7-point chalks. New England—which lost watery WR Julian Edelman for the remainder of the Regular Season to an Injury last week after losing RB Dion Lewis earlier this month—will be losing 2 Body Clock Hours travelling the over 3,000 miles from Massachusetts (EST) to Colorado (MST), but with the game at night it won’t really matter and if anything it may seem like a late start to TE Rob Gronkowski and the visitors who will be playing at 5,280 feet Altitude. The Patriots are 6-2 ATS the L8 in this high-profile series.


Monday, November 30, 2015
Baltimore Ravens -2½ at Cleveland Browns
: Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens (2-7 SU, 1-7-1 ATS, vs. Rams Sunday) head to FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland next Monday night to face the Browns (2-8 SU, 3-6-1 ATS, Open Date) in an AFC North game which matters little to either quite honestly and yet another “Why is this here?” Primetime TV matchup. The last time these two played, the Ravens lost 33-30 at Home in Baltimore earlier this season losing outright as 6-point chalks while the last meeting here in Cleveland, the Ravens won 23-21 in Week 3 and barely covered (½ point) as 1½-point favorites. Baltimore is 6-1 ATS the L7 here in Cleveland and worth a look in this particular spot with the mercurial and frenzied Johnny Manziel being named the Browns starting QB over Josh McCown the remainder of the Regular Season.

NFL Pick: Ravens -2½ 

NFL WEEK 12 ADVANCED LINE PICKS: Panthers +1 over Cowboys, Vikings +3 -120 over Falcons, Colts -3½ over Buccaneers, Giants Pick ‘Em over Redskins, Raiders -1½ over Titans, Cardinals -8 over 49ers, Ravens -2½ over Browns (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)


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