After a successful previous Week of prop betting, Week 11 is here, and there are value plays popping up around the books. I am releasing my three best player props absolutely free this week.
Frank Gore O/U 70.5 rushing yards
Frank Gore has been seeing some really nice volume over the last two weeks, and it has translated into the Colts playing better. With Matt Hasselbeck starting this week though, there are some out there that think his volume will go up even more. In the last two weeks, Gore has carried the ball 50 times. However, he is only averaging 3.1 yards per carry in those two games, and his age and usage might be finally catching up to him.
This week the Colts are on the road in Atlanta, and the Falcons’ run defense hasn’t been horrible this year like last season. The Falcons also might get out to a lead early in the game, which would force Hasselbeck to put the ball in the air and limit Gore’s touches. Either way it goes this week, the game script might not allow Gore to get the volume he will need to go over 70 yards rushing, so I am taking the under for our first player prop pick.
NFL Pick: UNDER 70.5 (-125) at Bet365
Matt Ryan O/U 294.5 passing yards
The Falcons are in a fight to secure a playoff spot in the NFC, and now they are welcoming in the Colts who are starting their backup quarterback. Needless to say, the Falcons are counting on this one as a win, and if they do indeed come out on top, Matt Ryan should be a big reason why. While he is averaging throwing the ball more on the road this year than at home, Ryan is still throwing for more than 300 passing yards per game this season when playing at home. One top of that, he has been forced to throw the ball a lot over the last two weeks, as he has dropped 700 passing yards in his last two games.
The Colts rank in the bottom third of the league is passing defense, and on the road in the dome with their backup quarterback, the Colts will surely give the Falcons every opportunity to throw the ball downfield. Look for Ryan’s third straight 300-yard passing performance this week, as the Falcons should dominate the time of possession.
NFL Pick: OVER 294.5 (-120) at Bet365
Jarvis Landry O/U 65.5 receiving yards
The Dolphins desperately need a win this week to keep pace in the AFC wildcard race, and against the Cowboys with Tony Romo likely coming back, that’s a tall order. However, a formula they have used time and again over the last two weeks is Jarvis Landry. The Dolphins have a nice young receiving core, and Landry has been their most consistent option, especially under the new regime of Dan Campbell.
Landry has seen 24 targets in his last three games, and even though he wasn’t able to do much with his 12 targets last season, he is still going t see heavy volume this week. The Cowboys are also a bottom third passing defense team, and despite his average Week 10, Landry would have gone over this total in three of his last four games. Look for another double-digit target game, and an over to cash for your NFL Picks.
NFL Pick: OVER 65.5 (-110) at Bet365