NFL Picks: Week 11 Value Bets

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 11, 2014 6:52 PM GMT

Coming off our first 3-0 sweep of the season, excited to get back to making NFL picks for this week. Also glad to have one more choice against the betting odds with only four teams off this week.

I said last week there is a great opportunity to make a run with NFL Picks because of the available information this far into the season and just trust the numbers to take advantage of the sportsbooks.

 

San Francisco’s Old School Methods Pays Dividends Again
Last week coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator promised a return to “49ers football” which meant run-first and be physical upfront. San Francisco did this and built an earlier lead last Sunday, but New Orleans was not about to go quietly at home and did not. Colin Kaepernick made a couple key plays that tied the game and the Niners defense won it in OT.

Look for San Francisco to play much the same way in New Jersey against a battered Giants defense who played hard for 40 minutes in Seattle before its thinned out troops were defenseless in stopping the Seattle running game for 350 yards.

The 49ers come into this matchup against the NY Giants 10-2 ATS against teams allowing 24 or more points and they are a perfect 6-0 ATS if their opponent surrenders six or more yards per play.

Eli Manning just does not have enough around him to keep this under a touchdown game.

Free NFL Pick: San Francisco -4.5

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Find out who the public will blindly back with Week 11 NFL picks.

Brown(s) Attractive Color in Cleveland
Why fans and NFL football handicappers alike love pro football every year is completely different. Sure we all like our Peyton Manning’s and Tom Brady’s but have teams coming out of nowhere like Cleveland, who happens to have a first-year coach in Mike Pettine. Cavaliers’ jerseys are not the only hot sellers in Cleveland these days with the first place Browns gear on Christmas lists this year.

Cleveland has a home game with Houston who starts Ryan Mallet for the first time. The Texans will undoubtedly lean on a potentially hamstrung Arian Foster and throw safe passes to protect Mallet. But the Cleveland defense has bottled up opposing teams and held them to 13.4 PPG in past five outings and forced 13 turnovers.

Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer continues to be effective and a playmaker and should take advantage of Houston’s 29th ranked pass defense. Plenty to like against short NFL odds with the Browns.

NFL Football Free Pick- Cleveland -3 at 5Dimes

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Arizona Rises to Occasion at Home
In the Grand Canyon State, the loss of Carson Palmer is not being thought of at this time as death blow, with Arizona fans giddy with their team’s 8-1 record. The longer term affects might be more powerful than they realize, but for one game in an advantageous situation, the Cardinals can come through.

Detroit leads the NFC North with a 7-2 record and is no longer making dumb mistakes which tells you what coach Jim Caldwell’s more disciplined approach has meant. But the Lions are 1-7 SU and ATS in the desert and are part of a very home dominated series. Arizona players with will pumped to prove they can win without Palmer to all doubters and backup Drew Stanton while not terribly accurate (49.5%); he throws a good deep ball which could lead to points by the Cards with their strong pass-catching contingent.

Strong overall performance leads to Cardinals taking down Lions.

Free NFL Pick: Arizona at -2 on NFL odds

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