NFL Picks - Week 11 Last Minute Betting Value On The Board

Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers

Saturday, November 19, 2016 4:20 PM GMT

Seeking that last-minute Week 11 NFL play? The Rams, Bucs and a play on the total in Sunday night's feature game between the Redskins and Packers top our picks. Check them out.

Dolphins (-1.5) vs Rams

Analysis: All eyes will be on Jared Goff as the 1st pick overall in the 2016 NFL draft makes his debut. However, the Rams defense will be the difference-maker in this one. It has yielded 36 points overall in its last three games, holding opponents below their projected team total by 31.1 points in this span. Dating back to last season, head coach Jeff Fisher and company are 5-2 SU and ATS when hosting a team scoring less than the league average on the season. They keep opponents to 17.0 points per contest in this spot. Miami enters scoring 22.7 points per game, 19th in the NFL.

For as much criticism Fisher gets for being a career-.500 coach, he does know how to protect a lead, particularly in the NFL betting market. The Rams are 25-7 ATS when sporting a lead at halftime under his leadership. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have taken a lead into the locker room on the road one time since Week 12 of 2014. They’ve been favored in the betting market in just three, though.

Free NFL Pick: Rams 1st Half +0.5 & Under 40

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Buccaneers vs Chiefs (-7.5)

Analysis: Dating back to last season, the UNDER is 6-0 when the Chiefs host a team with a losing record at Arrowhead Stadium. The average combined score is 33.1 points. K.C. has also failed to cover a spread under these conditions. Going 5-1 straight up, it’s never won by more than a touchdown. The hook could loom large in this one.

Tampa is at its best on offense when they rush the ball effectively, taking pressure off the young Jameis Winston. The team is 3-1 SU and ATS this season when gaining 90 yards or more on the ground, all as the underdog. For as good as the Chiefs are on defense, they are not efficient against the rush, allowing 4.7 yards per carry. The unit, in fact, has allowed 97 yards or more on the ground in all but one game this year.

Free NFL Picks: Buccaneers +7.5 & UNDER 45

Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Packers at Redskins (-2.5)

Analysis: The OVER is 12-2 in the Redskins’ last 14 games, but 50.5 is asking a lot here. Expect a conservative game plan from head coach Jay Gruden in this one. He’ll look to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field as much as possible and resort to the run plenty. The Pack are one of the best in the league against the rush, but it won’t deter Gruden from attempting to win the battle for time of possession.

Rodgers’ passing attack is abysmal this season, posting 6.1 yards per attempt (28th in the NFL). The signs of its deterioration were present last season as well. Against pass defense allowing less than the league average 255 passing yards per game, Green Bay averages 20.4 points per contest since the start of 2015. The UNDER is 12-2 in this span. Washington allows 250.2 through the air entering this one.

Free NFL Pick: UNDER 50

Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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