NFL Picks Week 11: Largest Totals We Suggest Betting On Sunday

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, November 22, 2015 1:00 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 22, 2015 1:00 PM UTC

Back-to-back losing weeks after Week 10 - my first consecutive losing weeks of the year. Why did I trust the New Orleans defense? Good riddance, Rob Ryan! Here are three of the highest Week 11 totals.

Oakland Raiders At Detroit Lions (49.5 On NFL Odds)
I previewed this game earlier this week here at SBR and recommended taking the Lions simply because they are home and it's a 10 a.m. Pacific time start for the Raiders. There's really no reason why this shouldn't be a shootout. For one, neither team runs the ball that well (Lions are dead last) so expect plenty of passing. And you have two big-armed, gunslinger quarterbacks in Oakland's Derek Carr and Detroit's Matthew Stafford. In his past four games, Carr has not thrown for less than 289 yards in any and has 13 combined touchdown passes -- and there were two good defenses in there in the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings. The Lions are not a good defensive team, ranking 23rd overall and allowing 29.0 points per game, second-worst in the NFL. Detroit's secondary is decimated by injury and is one of the weakest in the league. Stafford is having a disappointing season with just one 300-yard game, but he generally plays much better in the comforts of Ford Field. His best game of the year was at home, throwing for 405 yards and four scores in a win over the Bears. Oakland ranks 28th in total defense and second-to-last against the pass.

NFL Free Pick: Way 'OVER.' Each team should be in the 30s. The 'OVER' is 6-1 in Oakland's past seven on the road. The 'OVER' is 5-2 in Detroit's past seven at home.

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Cincinnati Bengals At Arizona Cardinals (49 For NFL Betting)
It's the third straight prime-time game for Cincinnati and second straight Sunday night game for Arizona. These teams are quite similar. Both are the No. 2 seeds in their current conferences, trailing unbeaten teams (New England in the AFC and Carolina in the NFC). Both have quarterbacks with plenty to prove in the postseason in the Bengals' Andy Dalton and Cardinals' Carson Palmer. Of course Palmer was the No. 1 overall pick by Cincinnati in 2003 -- the first-ever pick by current Bengals coach Marvin Lewis -- but burned several bridges on the way out as he forced a trade in 2011, getting dealt to Oakland. This game is very personal for Palmer. And both Dalton and Palmer are having their best seasons. Arizona ranks No. 1 in yards per game and is one point behind New England for the scoring lead (33.6 ppg for Cards). Cincinnati is No. 7 in yards per game and No. 5 in scoring (26.1). Your one concern for Cincinnati is that Dalton has had some prime-time troubles in his career and he comes off his worst start of the season in a Monday night home loss to Houston -- so you also have the short week. Might it be a bit of a letdown game for the Cardinals after last Sunday night's big win in Seattle? Well, a letdown for everyone but Palmer. No weather worries here. Lot of skill-position talent on the field.

NFL Free Pick: 'OVER.' The 'OVER' is 17-5 in the Bengals' last 22 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The 'OVER' is 8-2 in Arizona's past 10.

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Dallas Cowboys At Miami Dolphins (47 For NFL Picks)
What would this total have been if Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo wasn't returning from his broken collarbone suffered in Week 2? I'd guess at least four points lower. It's somewhat apples and oranges, but no Dallas total was higher than 45 points in the previous four games. During their seven-game skid without Romo, the Cowboys topped 20 points just twice with their ugly combination of Brandon Weeden (released this week) and Matt Cassel (now Romo's backup) under center. The Cowboys had to use a limited playbook with Weeden and especially Cassel but now it's fully open with Romo and Dez Bryant also back. The Miami offense has been in a funk since back-to-back blowouts of  Tennessee and Houston in Week 6-7, the first two weeks under interim coach Dan Campbell. The Fins haven't topped 20 points the past three weeks but did win in Philly last Sunday, 20-19. Strangely, the Dolphins haven't been allowing Ryan Tannehill to change plays at the line of scrimmage. Expect to see more of rookie running back Jay Ajayi on Sunday as he has been very solid in the past two games while Lamar Miller hasn't topped 44 yards rushing in the past three.

NFL Free Pick: 'UNDER.'  Romo will be rusty and the Miami offense isn't very explosive. The 'UNDER' is 4-1 in Dallas' past five on the road. It is 12-4-1 in Miami's past 17 in November.

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