NFL Picks: Week 11 Game-by-Game Total Bets for Extraordinary Profits

Nikki Adams

Friday, November 20, 2015 2:14 PM GMT

As week 11 of the NFL 2015-2016 fast approaches, we look at the complete serving on the NFL odds board, all 14 matchups, and serve up game-by-game predictions and NFL picks in OVER-UNDER betting.

NFL Week 10 Recap
The UNDER enjoyed a strong showing in week 10 NFL betting with eight out of 14 games cashing below pre-set totals on the NFL odds board. Overall, teams went 4-8-2 in O/U betting, underscoring a largely skewed week that also so favourites go 3-11 SU and 2-12 ATS and home teams go 3-11 SU and 4-10 ATS. As a result, we got hammered with our total picks and finished with a 6-8 mark (See Table 1).

Here is our breakdown of Week 11 NFL betting picks in total betting. After a strong week for UNDER bettors, we’re expecting the OVER to bounce back in week 11. Hence, our significant leaning towards the OVER on our NFL picks. Good luck to us.

Titans vs. Jaguars 
The total opened around 44 points but has been coming down since early doors. You’ll find it trading at 42 at some sportsbooks with a few going as low as 41.5 or a high of 42.5-points. The Jaguars are 6-3 in O/U betting this season while the Titans are 5-4 in O/U betting this season. Neither side is scoring an awful lot – Jaguars are averaging 21.3 points per game scored while the Titans are averaging 18.77 points per game. Those numbers have us considering the UNDER on our NFL picks. Swaying us the other way though is the shoddy defenses of both teams that have conceded an average of 28.3 points and 23.7 points per game, respectively. This game could come close to the total currently trading, if not go slightly OVER.

NFL Picks: OVER 41.5 (-110) at BetCRIS

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Cowboys vs. Dolphins
With Tony Romo back in the fold the expectation is that the Cowboys will light up the scoreboard. Why else would the total be trading on a high 47.5-points right now, up from 46.5-points at early doors? Indeed, the Cowboys should be pumped up for this game. Romo is back, Bryant looks better and healthier and the Cowboys are simply desperate to stop the rot. Of course, the Dolphins might have something to say about it all. They boast a 2-0 OVER record in Miami this season, thanks to the big wins over the Titans and Texans that marked the start to Dan Campbell’s coaching career.

NFL Picks: OVER 47.5 (-110)

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Broncos vs. Bears
The NFL betting line opened on 43 points but it’s swiftly come down to 41-points or thereabouts depending on your choice sportsbook. For the Broncos, 3-5-1 in O/U betting because of a solid defensive core, the line fits. The NFL betting line however doesn’t take into consideration a Bears offense that has a new lease on life with Jay Cutler at quarterback and John Fox on the side lines. They’re playing some nice ball right now and scoring with abandon. Since coming off a bye week, the Bears are riding a two-game winning streak and have combine for 59 points scored (29.5-points per game) and 32 points conceded (16 points per game). Consensus betting reveals more than 80% of bettors are hitting the UNDER. We’re of a mind to fade the public and shade the OVER.

NFL Picks: OVER 41 (-110) at Bet365

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Colts vs. Falcons
The total for this game opened at 46 points but continues to creep up across various sportsbook platforms, which has us somewhat surprised. No Andrew Luck in this game. No Falcons offense visible in the last few weeks to hang one’s hat one. What’s more, the Falcons are 2-7 in O/U betting, riding a five-game UNDER streak. Of course, it’s possible that this trend ends in this game but it would mean Matt Ryan finding his offense which has gone MIA since a 48-21 win over the Texans.

NFL Picks: UNDER 47.5 (-110) at 5Dimes

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Jets vs. Texans
The NFL betting line opened around the 41-point mark and looks to be staying put for the time being, largely down to the quarterback uncertainties. On the season, the Jets are 5-4 in O/U betting while the Texans are 5-3-1 in O/U betting. Last week’s 10-6 win over the Bengals was a bit of an anomaly, marking only the third time a Texans game cashed on the UNDER this season. That fact though hasn’t stopped NFL bettors from pounding the UNDER in this game. In fact, over 95% of bettors appear to be on the UNDER for their NFL picks. That’s got us a bit wary, so we’re fading the public and banking on the OVER.

NFL Picks: OVER 41 (-110) at Westgate

 

Raiders vs. Lions
The Raiders and Lions collide in week 11 NFL betting, all while odds makers serve up a high 48-point total. Clearly, this has everything to do with the Raiders and their 6-2-1 OVER record this season as well as the Lions and their 5-4 OVER record on the season. Both sides have suspect defenses that have allowed a combined 502 points over 9 games, which is an average of 55 points per game approximately. On the offensive side of the ball, the Raiders are putting an average of 25.2-points per game while the Lions are putting up about 18.6-points per game. That said they are 3-1 in O/U betting at home.

NFL Picks: OVER 48 (-110) at BetOnline

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Rams vs. Ravens
Another game in week 11 that is trading on 41-ish points is the clash between the Rams and Ravens. Both sides are coming off losses in week 10 NFL betting but for the Ravens it was most likely season ending. The Rams are still in the mix but they’re taking a bit of a risk by benching Nick Foles and making way for Case Keenum. It’s hard to decide what to expect from this matchup that’s no gone tits up with all the changing variables.

NFL Picks: UNDER 41.5 (-110) at Bet365

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Bucs vs. Eagles
The Bucs boast a 5-4 OVER record while the Eagles boast a 2-7 OVER record. Odds makers rolled out a 45.5-point line at early doors and that seems to have stuck for the most part with only some sportsbooks coming down by half-a-point. That tells us the bookies got it right and are taking balanced action so far on this game. So which way do we go with our NFL picks? Mark Sanchez is purportedly going to be running the offense while Bradford sits out with an injured shoulder. Sanchez is more familiar with Chip Kelly’s offense than Bradford is having played last season in a backup role for Nick Foles. This could bode well for the Eagles, so long as he sticks to the gameplan and doesn’t take bonehead decisions like last week.

NFL Picks: OVER 45 (-110) at BetCRIS

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Redskins vs. Panthers
Kirk Cousins and the Redskins had a monster game last week over the Saints, beating the highly fancied visitors 47-14. So far this season, the Redskins haven’t been able to string together consecutive wins. What’s more, they’ve been unable to win on the road too. Given these negative trends it’s hard to imagine how they’ll fare against the Panthers, who are undefeated on the season. That said the Redskins have cashed on the OVER in three of their last four games and the Panthers are 5-3-1 in O/U betting, 3-1-1 at home.

NFL Picks: OVER 45 (-110) at at The Greek

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Chiefs vs. Chargers
The Chiefs are 5-3-1 in O/U betting this season, coming off a big win on the road in Denver. On the road, they are 3-1-1 in O/U betting, with the only UNDER cashing in Minnesota against a solid defense. The Chargers don’t have one of those. What’s more, they don’t have a great team beyond Philip Rivers. This one could go either way really, but we’re leaning towards the OVER on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: UNDER 44.5 (-110) 5Dimes

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Packers vs. Vikings
The divisional clash between the Vikings and Packers is shaping up to be a defining clash in week 11 NFL betting. The Vikings are the most consistent UNDER performers this season with a 1-7-1 OVER record. The Packers are without a credible road win this season –a run of form compounded by a three-game losing streak. They are also just 3-6 in O/U betting this season, which is a departure for Aaron Rodgers and the vaulted O-line. Predictably, the odds makers came out with a 45-point total for this game which hasn’t moved a whole lot since opening doors. That suggests the action on both sides of the coin is pretty balanced. So which way are we going with our NFL picks? We’re going to take a chance on the OVER.

NFL Picks: OVER 44.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Niners vs. Seahawks
The divisional clash between the Niners and Seahawks served up a 20-3 win the last time the pair met this season. Indeed, the total has gone UNDER in five of the last five meetings between this pair. Predictably, it’s trading on a rather low 40-points at the moment, down from an opening 41.5-points.

NFL Picks: UNDER 40.5 (-110) at Bovada

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Bengals vs. Cardinals
The Bengals suffered their first loss of the season on Monday Night Football, losing 10-6 to the Texans. It was one of the worst offensive accounts by Andy Dalton, prompting critics to resurrect primetime Dalton bashing. Overall, the Bengals are 5-4 in O/U betting. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are soaring behind a statement win over the Seahawks on the road to improve to 7-2 SU on the season. The Cardinals are also 7-2 in O/U betting, with six games serving up totals higher than 50-points. Totals are currently trading anywhere from 47.5-to- 49-points.

NFL Picks: OVER 47.5 (-110) at Betway

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Bills vs. Patriots
The Bills and Patriots are set to collide for the second time this season. In week 2 NFL betting, the Patriots defeated the Bills 40-32 to cash on the OVER 45 points almost in a singular effort. Totals for the repeat of this AFC East clash in week 11 NFL betting are admittedly slightly higher at 48.5 points, but the surprising thing is that the total is down from an opening 49.5 points. Both are 5-4 in OO/U betting this season. Importantly, the Patriots have cashed on the OVER in each and every game that was trading on totals in the 40-50 range. The only time the UNDER cashes was on totals of 50-plus.

NFL Picks: OVER 48 (-110) at Pinnacle

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