NFL Picks: Week 11 Fades & Games to Avoid

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 12, 2013 8:07 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2013 8:07 PM UTC

As the NFL season advances, it becomes harder for NFL football handicappers to find quality plays when bad teams face off or when injuries completely change the fortunes of teams. I have a trio of head-scratching NFL odds which are harder to figure than Miley Cyrus and Justin Bieber.

NFC South Matchup is Worse than Debbie Downer

These were not supposed to be two of the worst NFC teams in 2013, yet here they are. Atlanta has lost six of seven and has the worst running attack in the NFL. Opposing teams now have no fear of the Falcons running and even though Roddy White has returned, he’s not 100 percent and Matt Ryan is running more than at any time during his NFL career, which is not a good thing for Atlanta.

Tampa Bay has spent the first half of the season coping with an outbreak of MRSA, accusations that the captain's vote was rigged, a breach of confidentiality in the league's substance abuse program and ultimately the demotion and eventual release of quarterback Josh Freeman.

Oh yea, and everyone hating on coach Greg Schiano for the Buccaneers 1-8 start.

In making your NFL picks, there has to be a better choice.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":227017, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

Two Bad Choices: Oakland or Houston

If you are contemplating making this AFC affair one of your sports picks this week, I would retrieve the line from the first half only from the sportsbooks.

Why? Keep reading…

One aspect of coaching is the ability to make halftime adjustments, with the intent of giving your team a chance to win. If one buys into this thought process, these are among the worst coaching staffs in figuring out how to get their teams to win or the talent is so low, they cannot compete for 60 minutes.

Since Week 3, Oakland has been outscored 104-34 after halftime, making them real play against material after the break. Coach Dennis Allen either has nowhere to turn offensively or does not trust what he has on his roster and the Raiders are smoked repeatedly in the second half.

Houston has lost seven straight and here is the reason, in the second half they have been decidedly outpointed 103-26. Even opposing teams have noted whatever the Texans game plan is; they do not vary from it, making them easier to defend or breakdown defensively.

Play at your own risk.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":227023, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

NFL Bettors Backing Giants, Smart Choice?

What was supposed to be a marquee Sunday night matchup, the Packers and Giants is not even the main doubleheader game on FOX this week.

Green Bay is laboring with injuries to several key playmakers and now has to build its offense around former Wisconsin Badger Scott Tolzien. Forced to play their practice squad quarterback, football bettors moved the NFL betting odds three points against the Packers to +6.5.

While the offense certainly has limitations, the Green Bay defense has given up more big plays like Kim Kardashian photo opps.

While New York is intriguing, does anyone really trust Eli Manning and his 16 picks in nine games this season? Blame the offensive line, dropped passes or the new mayor Bill de Blasio in the Big Apple, something has been amiss with Manning all season and can anyone really feel comfortable handing out points with Big Blue?

Sure, the G-Men have won three straight, but watching them play, do they really instill confidence?

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":227028, "sportsbooksIds":[43], "LineTypeId":2, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
comment here