SBR's Peter Loshak shares his week 11 betting parlay, here he'll break down the public vs. sharp action in search of betting value to generate 2 plays worth adding to your NFL picks.
NFL Week 11 might be the most interesting week we've seen this season so far from a handicapping perspective. First off, Tony Romo returns at QB for the Dallas Cowboys, and it's not exactly clear how much that might change their ATS fortunes going forward. The Cowboys were a dismal 1-6 ATS in the 7 games that Romo missed.
Brock Osweiler will also be starting at QB in place of injured Peyton Manning, and of course the NFL betting market reacted significantly to that news, and has been seeing a lot of movement on the betting line for that game over the course of the week.
The game opened market-wide this week with the Bears at approximately +2 at most sportsbooks, down significantly from the "look-ahead" line a week ago of about +6 when Manning was expected to play. The Bears then took action early in the week, getting bet all the way to -1.5, but then big money started to come in the other way on Denver, driving the line back to Bears +1 on the NFL odds board.
The Carolina Panthers have become a strongly public-backed team in recent weeks, and the public has mostly cashed when backing them. This week it's more of the same with the public willing to lay 7 points or more with the Panthers at home against the Redskins at a big percentage.
The betting public has lost some faith in the Packers, who have lost 3 straight games as a favorite, but are still backing the Packers at about a 2-to-1 ratio against the Vikings, who have covered an amazing 8 games in a row. Some sharp action though, did come in on Minnesota to gain a 9th straight cover over the seemingly-reeling Packers.
The sharpest play of the week so far appears to be the Kansas City Chiefs as a road favorite over the San Diego Chargers, who are coming off a bye, but dealing with multiple key injuries on offense.
And other interesting handicapping scenarios this week involve the Philadelphia Eagles starting Mark Sanchez at QB, the Cincinnati Bengals coming off of their first straight-up and ATS loss of the year, and the New England Patriots dealing with an increasing number of key injuries on offense, the latest being to key receiver Julian Edelman.
2-Plays Parlay NFL Picks: Packers/Vikings Under 45 / 49ers/Seahawks Under 39.5