NFL Picks: Week 10 Value Bets

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 4, 2014 10:40 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2014 10:40 PM UTC

With the advent of Week 10 of the NFL season, it is time for all serious bettors making sports picks to put together an end of season run versus the betting odds, building the wagering account.

Whether you are having a good, bad or indifferent year against the sportsbooks or you bookie, you have enough information to make a run with your NFL picks to start making money. I’m having a so-so season with these value picks against the NFL odds and I’ve spent extra time (though the editors here wanted this article earlier) to make sure this week I get it right for you.


Chiefs Road Warriors in Buffalo
Both Kansas City and Buffalo sit as 5-3 as they begin the second portion of their schedules. I’ll admit as a NFL football handicapper, I thought Kyle Orton would be just a modest improvement over E.J. Manuel, but he’s supplied more juice to the offense than I expected. I like many who studied the teams in the preseason thought the Chiefs would come back to the pack after their sensational transformation last season, but I wrongly underestimated Andy Reid as a coach.

Since Week 2, Kansas City is 5-2 and 6-1 ATS and Reid has set up power running game to take advantage of the talents of Jamaal Charles and change of pace back Knile Davis and has Alex Smith using his best skills as a passer in distributing the ball.

After a strong start, the Buffalo defense has struggled with teams running at them the last two outings which I am sure Reid will deploy. With the Chiefs pass rush, Orton might toss a couple 50-50 balls that lead to turnovers. With the Bills 10-24 ATS after a division win by 10 or more points, choose K.C. to cover.

NFL Football Free Pick- Kansas City -1.5

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Broncos Run Roughshod over Raiders
We all witnessed how thoroughly disgusted Peyton Manning was with himself after another defeat in New England. Since joining Denver, a loss in usually a precursor of good news for Broncos fans and those working the NFL odds the following game.

In his 2 ½ years with the blue and orange, Manning is 4-1 SU and ATS after a setback, with the last four all in the win column and against the spread.

Oakland lacks the talent implement a game plan like the Patriots and while Derek Carr shows promise for the Raiders, he and Tom Brady hang out in different stratospheres.

Denver is 13-3 ATS against losing teams since 2012, winning by 18.4 points a game. We look for that to continue against the winless Raiders, as the Broncos go on to cover the NFL odds.

NFL Football Free Pick- Denver -11

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Arizona sinks St. Louis
The Rams engineered a very impressive victory at San Francisco 13-10, thanks a great performance from their defensive line which took their sack total from six to 14 in four quarters in Santa Clara.

One nagging issue for St. Louis is QB Austin Davis, who does not like blitzes up the A-gaps and tends to bail to his right and Arizona loves to bring continual pressure. If Davis starts using poor judgment, the Cardinals secondary has very good ball skills and hands to create turnovers.

This is also the Rams third consecutive road game and Arizona has the best record in football (7-1) and six covers to go with it. Coach Jeff Fisher’s pass defense is beatable without a pass rush and Carson Palmer and company are 7-0 ATS against defenses allowing seven or more passing yards an attempt the last two seasons. Like usual, the Cards salt this away in the fourth quarter.

NFL Football Free Pick- Arizona -7

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