Week 10 brings about the first full week of the 2nd half of the NFL season. With the opportunities at cashing in on value diminishing with every passing week, we have to take every chance we can to extract value.
Buffalo’s defense has been playing pretty well this season, and along with flying under the radar on defense, this week they are getting back a key weapon to this season and their future. Barring setback, EJ Manuel will make his return to the field for the Bills, and they need him badly. Buffalo has had to start two different quarterbacks, and over the five weeks he missed, the Bills went 1-3 SU.
This will be key to this prop, because as long as Manuel isn’t too rusty, the Bills have a great shot at keeping the game close on the road. Pittsburgh’s offense looked better last week, but their defense did not, giving up 55 points to a previously struggling Tom Brady. On paper, these two teams are quite evenly matched. They are both dealing with some injuries, but with the exception of Robert Woods, everyone else on the injury report seems to be a go for this game.
A good thing to look for when betting the three unanswered scores prop are games with low spreads and totals. This game features one of the lowest totals in the NFL Odds this week at 43 ½ at some shops, with a spread of -3 or less. This should provide us with some value, and the price of +130 is too enticing for me to pass up. This is a tough prop to hit, but as we get later in the year, defense and tired legs take over, and this prop’s value is going skyrocket in the 2nd half of the season.
My Pick: ‘No’ 3 Unanswered Scores (+130)
To be honest, the storylines off the field for both of these teams have been way more interesting than on the field, but nonetheless, there is still value with this crap-fest of a Monday Night Football game. At even money, I think the under on the touchdown total could have serious value. This could be the one of the worst Monday night games of all time, but as much as some of you may disagree with this, you don’t have to watch the game to cash the ticket.
These two teams rank in the basement of the league on offense in the first half. The Dolphins are ranked 29th in total offense, and the Bucs are right behind them in 31st. Guess which Florida team is ranked 32nd to round out the trio of awful? While the three unanswered scores prop might have value too, I think the touchdown total is much better.
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With Doug Martin on IR, the Bucs will have little to go to on the offensive end, and on the flip side, with Ryan Tannehill getting sacked so much, and with little run game, this game could be in the teens at the end. On top of that, Brent Grimes will be locked in on Vincent Jackson, while Darrelle Revis will likely shut down Mike Wallace on the other side. This takes away the only two big playmakers either offense has left, and after last week in Seattle, I am somewhat convinced that the Bucs’ defense isn’t that bad after all.
Both of these teams are averaging a measly six yards or fewer per pass, which isn’t going to do much for the scoring. I expect it to be a field goal festival, and a final score of 22-20, making the under the best play in the touchdown total.
My Pick: ‘Under’ 4.5 TDs (+100)