Instead of wagering on a volatile spread, let’s take a look at a few prop picks to spotlight for tonight’s games. Both of these odds are from Bet365 sportsbook.
First scoring play of the game
These two offenses have been the opposite of consistent this season, and against one another, I don’t see the logic in thinking that it will change against one another. At home, the Bucs’ defense should play better, and if last week was any indication of an upward trend, the Bucs’ defense should play well here at home.
Their offense has been below average with Mike Glennon under center, but here at home, settling for a field goal for the first points of the game seems like a reasonable scenario. The Bucs opened the game last week with a field goal, and this week at home against an inferior opponent should be good for them.
However this one doesn’t have any secret formula behind it, nor does it have many numbers. What it does have is value. At NFL odds of +333, the Bucs scoring a field goal as the first score of the game is much better than the TD price with the Bucs at +225. That is more than $100 of value. With Glennon under center it might be a slow start in the red zone, and because they are looking like the hotter team right now, I like the odds here, so I am adding this to my NFL picks.
My Pick: First score of the game – Bucs FG (+333)
O/U 4.5 TDs
As you can probably gather from my pick above, I think this one could turn into a field goal festival. This would mean that touchdowns could come at a premium, and at +100, under 4.5 touchdowns seems like great sports betting value.
These two teams rank in the basement of the league on offense in the first half. The Dolphins are ranked 29th in total offense, and the Bucs are right behind them in 31st. Guess which Florida team is ranked 32nd to round out the trio of awful? While the three unanswered scores prop might have value too, I think the touchdown total is much better.
With Doug Martin on IR, the Bucs will have little to go to on the offensive end, and on the flip side, with Ryan Tannehill getting sacked so much, and with little run game, this game could be in the teens at the end. On top of that, Brent Grimes will be locked in on Vincent Jackson, while Darrelle Revis will likely shut down Mike Wallace on the other side. This takes away the only two big playmakers either offense has left, and after last week in Seattle, I am somewhat convinced that the Bucs’ defense isn’t that bad after all.
Both of these teams are averaging a measly six yards or fewer per pass, which isn’t going to do much for the scoring. I expect it to be a field goal festival, and a final score of 22-20, making the under the best play in the touchdown total.
My Pick: ‘Under’ 4.5 TDs (+100)