NFL Picks: Week 10 Game-by-Game Totals Betting Guide

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, November 11, 2015 9:09 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015 9:09 PM GMT

Week 10 NFL odds are in full swing. In this column, we provide a game-by-game betting analysis complete with OVER-UNDER predictions for your NFL betting thrills. Let’s get started.

Week 9 NFL betting Recap
Week 9 closed on a high with the OVER edging the UNDER 8-5 around the league. For our NFL Total game-by-game predictions, we went 7-6 and improve to a 65-66-1 mark overall. Slowly recovering from a horrendous week 5 in which we suffered our worst setback (See table 1) we are now in the positive four weeks in a row.

 

Table 1: Breaking Down Weekly Game-by-Game NFL Picks Records

NFL WEEK

ATS RECORD

SU RECORD

TOTAL RECORD

Week 1 – 16 Games

13-3-0

11-5-0

9-7-0

Week 2 – 16 Games

4-12-0

4-12-0

6-10-0

Week 3 – 16 Games

12-4-0

12-4-0

8-8-0

Week 4 – 15 Games

4-10-1

7-8-0

8-6-1

Week 5 – 14 Games

11-3-0

9-5-0

3-11-0

Week 6 – 14 Games

4-9-1

9-5-0

8-6-0

Week 7 – 14 Games

5-9-0

7-7-0

7-7-0

Week 8 – 14 Games

7-7-0

9-5-0

9-5-0

Week 9 – 13 Games

6-6-1

8-5-0

7-6-0

Total – 132 Games

66-63-3

76-56-0

65-66-1

 

Here are our cutting-edge predictions for week 10’s serving of 14 games. Let’s get cracking.

Bills vs. Jets
The New York Jets host former head coach Rex Ryan and his Bills on Thursday, a game trading on a rather low total of 42.5 across most sportsbooks, down from an opening 44.5 points. This decrease pays lip service to the defenses of both teams – the Jets rank 4th in total defense while the Bills rank a respectable 15th in total defense. Jets are allowing 20.3-points per game while the Bills are allowing 23.8-points per game. Jets are scoring 25 points per game while the Bills are scoring 26.12-points per game.  Thursday Night Football has served up a 4-4-1 OVER Record through nine weeks of football, with the last three in a row cashing on the UNDER. On paper, this game points towards the UNDER as well on the strength of the defenses. Consider the emotional aspect of this rivalry and the fact that the total has gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings between this pair we’re of a mind to lean ever so slightly towards the OVER.

NFL Picks: OVER 42.5. (-110) BetOnline

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Panthers vs. Titans
The Panthers defense is nothing to sniff at and should be a huge factor in slowing down Marcus Mariota and the Titans offense. They are ranked 12th in the league and concede just 20.6 points per game. When coming up against good defenses, Mariota has struggled to put up points. So far he’s only put up more than 20 points against Tampa Bay, Indianapolis and New Orleans. While the former ranks 10th in total defense, the fact that it was the first game of the season and emotions run high partly explains the massive 42-14 win. The latter pair rank at the bottom of the league in total defense and pass defense. That said the Panthers have scored an average of 28.5 points per game and only two games combined for less than 42 points – the first two games of the season. With momentum clearly on their side this game might just go OVER posted totals on NFL odds board that are trading around the 43-point mark.

NFL Picks: OVER 43 (-110) bet365

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Bears vs. Rams
The Beas and Rams collide in week 10 NFL betting with the former coming off a win and the latter coming off a loss. Rams are 2-6 in O/U betting this season with a 1-3 O/U record at home – the only OVER to cash was in the 34-31 upset of Seattle in week 1. The Bears are 3-5 in O/U betting this season which includes back-to-back UNDER results. Another indication this is more likely to be a low scoring affair is the fifth-ranked defense in St. Louis – fourth against the pass and 13th against the rush, all while allowing just 18.3 points per game. Jay Cutler and the Bears will have their work cut out for them to put up points against this stout defense.

NFL Picks: UNDER 42.5 (-110) 5Dimes

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Browns vs. Steelers
The Browns lead the league with a 7-2 OVER record, which is somewhat surprising. They certainly put up the points with Josh McCown calling the shots but their defense lets them down repeatedly. They are 30th in total defense, 21st against the pass and dead last against the rush. It remains to be seen whether Josh McCown does start this game or whether Johnny Manziel will get the nod. Steelers will be without Big Ben. Landry Jones will be running the offense so again it’s not an easy one to gage. There’s also the 2-7 O/U record for the Steelers to consider when making this NFL pick. Consider this is a game the Steelers will not want to lose, defense should be the emphasis for coach Tomlin. Not surprisingly it’s a low 41-point total for the game, paying lip service almost entirely to the Steelers and their overall output this season.

NFL Picks: UNDER 41 (-110) Bovada

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Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
The Cowboys will play one last game with Matt Cassel calling the shots. Overall, the Cowboys boast a 4-4 OVER record this season with the three previous starts by Cassel going 2-1 in O/U betting. The Seahawks were the only side to hold the Cowboys to the UNDER in these last three games. The Bucs are 5-3 in O/U betting with three of their last four games hitting the OVER. Most recently, Jameis Winston and the Bucs offense have perked up. By these stats the 43-point total currently trading feels low so we’re going with the OVER on our NFL picks.

NFL Picks: OVER 43 (-110) Westgate

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Lions vs. Packers
The Packers are surprisingly underperforming on the OVER this season. They are just 3-5 in O/U betting this season overall. More surprising, they are 1-3 in O/U betting at Lambeau. The Lions, meanwhile, 5-3 in O/U betting largely down to a poor defense. Totals are running around the 47.5-point total, which is high considering the Packers are trending UNDER mostly this season. Aaron Rodgers was left rather T-offed last Sunday, following his second straight loss on the road. He’s bound to be a bit miffed and take it out on the hapless Lions you’d think.

NFL Picks: OVER 47.5 (-110) 5Dimes

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Jaguars vs. Ravens
The Jaguars and Ravens collide in week 10 NFL betting with the Jaguars coming off a 32-18 loss to the NY Giants and the Ravens coming out of a bye. Totals on this game are trading at 48 points across various sportsbook platforms, which seems a touch low considering both sides are 5-3 in O/U betting this season. Baltimore’s defense is conceding a high 26.8 points per game while Tampa Bay’s defense is conceding an even higher 28.9-points per game.

NFL Picks: OVER 48 (-110) BetOnline

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Dolphins vs. Eagles
The Dolphins are riding a two-game losing streak into week 10 NFL betting, which includes being outscored 69-24. Yikes. So much for the vaulted Dolphins defense. The bonhomie surrounding Dan Campbell in his brief tenure is fast wearing thin all while pressure mounts. The Dolphins really need to get something going, particularly on offense. Averaging just 12-points per game over the last couple of weeks isn’t going to cut it. In the meantime, the Eagles appear to have got things going in recent weeks with three wins in their last four games. Still, they are just 2-6 in O/U betting this season. In any event, the positive sign for OVER bettors is the fact that the Eagles have been averaging 28.75 points scored over the last four games, which coincides with the positive run of form. Only the Panthers and their stout defense held the Eagles to less than 20 points. Miami’s defense is nowhere nearly as stout as is Carolina’s defense, which should suit the Eagles’ offense nicely as it continues to find its rhythm. Question is whether Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins offense will get anything going this weekend. Recent numbers aren’t encouraging at all.

NFL Picks: UNDER 48 (-110) BetOnline

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Saints vs. Redskins
The Saints are coming off a disappointing 34-28 loss to the Titans in week 9 NFL betting, which snaps a three-game winning streak that was underscored by Drew Brees and the offense finally getting things going. Arguably, the culprit for the loss was defense or lack thereof. It’s as porous as Swiss cheese allowing 29.8-points per game. Drew Brees simply can’t keep putting up the numbers only to have the defense undo all his efforts – Saints have been outscored 241-to-268 over eight games. In Washington, Drew Brees is set to come up against a defense that isn’t too shabby and ranks 19th in total defense with 24.4 points allowed.  Redskins are 3-1 SU at home, which includes a 1-3 OVER record and includes just 19.25 points allowed. The 30-points conceded to the Bucs in their last winning account at home was the highest amount of points allowed and skews the numbers. Prior to that they were averaging just 15.7-points allowed. So it’s somewhat surprising totals are hovering at the 50-point mark. Granted Drew Brees can put up the points, but he might find it difficult to do so against the Redskins ninth ranked pass defense.

NFL Picks: UNDER 50.5 (-110) bet365

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Vikings vs. Raiders
The Vikings have been consistently cashing on the UNDER this season. In fact, they have the lowest OVER record in the league at 1-7 through eight games. Clearly, that NFL betting trend is dictating the total outlook for this game as it’s trading around 43.5-points or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice. Problem is the Raiders offense is averaging 26.6-points per game on the season, but the last three games have yielded a much higher 35.33-point per game average. Crucially, the Raiders have home advantage where they are 3-1 in O/U betting. If the Raiders dictate play in this game, this should go OVER posted totals on the NFL odds board.

NFL Picks: OVER 43.5 (-110) Westgate

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Chiefs vs. Broncos
The Chiefs and Broncos reprise hostilities in week 10 NFL betting, eight weeks after the Chiefs lost a heartbreaker at home 31-24. Contrary to expectations, the Chiefs have performed better for OVER bettors with a 5-3 OVER record. The Broncos boast the exact opposite 3-5 OVER record on the season. Crucially, the Broncos are 0-3 in O/U betting at home this season cashing on the UNDER in totals ranging from 46-43. Defense has been the key to the Broncos’ success this season and it’s expected to be the defining element on the field when they take on the Chiefs for the second time this season.  For our money, we’re leaning towards the OVER in this game if only because the Broncos are coming off a loss to the Colts and Peyton Manning will be looking for redemption.

NFL Picks: OVER 41.5 (-110) BetOnline

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Patriots vs. Giants
The Patriots and Giants clash in week 10 NFL betting in a game that has a high likelihood of turning into a shootout. The Giants are 3-1 in O/U betting at home this season. In the last two games, Eli Manning and his G-men have put up 91 points and conceded 70 points. The Patriots, meanwhile, have posted a league-leading 276 points for an average of 34.5-points per game. Need one say more?

NFL Picks: OVER 54.5 (0110) bet365

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Cardinals vs. Seahawks
The Cardinals and Seahawks collide in a game that is expected to be a battle of attrition as well as a potentially title-deciding game in the NFC West. Neither defense is anything to sniff at with points allowed hovering under 20-points – Cardinals are conceding 19.1 points while the Seahawks are conceding just 17.4-points per game. Arizona boast a 6-2 OVER record thanks to the second best scoring numbers after the Patriots. They’ve outscored opponents 263-to-153. Obviously, it’s not going to be a cakewalk against the Seattle defense, but we’re leaning towards the OVER nonetheless.

NFL Picks: OVER 45 (-110) Bovada

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Texans vs. Bengals
For a second week in a row the Bengals feature in primetime football action. Last week, they kicked off with a 31-10 win over the Browns in Thursday Night Football. This week, they close action against the Texans in Monday Night Football. Overall, the Bengals are 8-0 SU and 5-3 in O/U betting this season. At home, they are 2-2 in O/U betting, which includes cashing on the UNDER in last week’s Thursday clash with the Browns. Houston Texans boast a 5-2-1 OVER record, comprised of a whopping 3-0-1 OVER record on the road, which is top of the league. Importantly, it’s down to their rather alarming performance on the road behind a 1-3 SU mark and conceding an average of 34 points.

NFL Picks: OVER 47 (-110) 5Dimes

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