NFL Picks Week 10: Focusing on the Total for Cardinals vs. Seahawks

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 11, 2015 6:33 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015 6:33 PM UTC

Although the Totals are 5-5 in the L10 games in the Cardinals-Seahawks series, the Under is 4-1 ATS the L5 at CenturyLink Field where this Week 10 showdown will take place primetime Sunday night.

What: NFL Week 10—Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle
When: Sunday, November 15, 2015
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST/5:30 p.m. PST
Weather: Overcast with Showers, 40°, 40% chance of Rain, Winds S 8 mph, 81% Humidity
Current Point Spread: Seahawks -3
Current High Total in Marketplace: 44½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, 5Dimes)
Consensus Total in Marketplace: Equal 44½’s and 45’s in Marketplace
Current Low Total in Marketplace: 45 (Bovada)
Alternate Total: Under 41 +150, Over 40 -200 (Bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 41½ +145, Over 41½ -195 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 42 +137, Over 42 -187 (bet365)
Alternate Total: Under 42½ +133, Over 4s½ -181 (bet365)


Current Realities Heading Into This Game
Primetime is the perfect spot for this NFC West showdown and marquee game of Week 10, this massive meeting between the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (4-4 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) and the division-leading Arizona Cardinals (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) at CenturyLink Field in Seattle in a game in which both teams will be coming in off their Bye weeks (13 Days Rest). The Seahawks and QB Russell Wilson (24-11-2 ATS on Home) will definitely be needing this game much more than Arizona and QB Carson Palmer (40-33-3 ATS on Road). This will only be Seattle’s 4th Home game of the season (Lions, Bears, Carolina) and their first Home game against NFC West competition so expecting a strong 2nd Half close buoyed by lights-out Defense like the L2 seasons from the seahawks is a good idea, especially sitting at 4-4 here. This is a huge game for host Seattle, so expect a maximum effort from the players here—Marshawn Lynch included—and the Emerald City crowd and Referee’s calls could lean the Seahawks way with Arizona on the Road and sitting at 6-2. Something to think about. In Week 8 play, Seattle (L2 Under) edged the TonyRomo-less Cowboys in Dallas, 13-12, while the Cardinals won (and covered as 7-point favorites) in Cleveland against the Browns, 34-20, surviving 3 Fumbles and still controlling the game (Time of Possession: 35-25, Passing Yards: 372-215). But this is the game both teams have been waiting for and have circled on their schedules for some time and a Win here by Arizona would put a massive dent in the Seahawks’ Playoffs hopes and possibly open up a Wild Card spot for some NFC team like the Vikings, Eagles, Falcons or maybe the Rams somewhere down the line. Anyway, here are the L10 posted Totals, Final Scores and Over/Under results overall from this Cardinals-Seahawks series, the focus of this assignment.


Final Scores in Last 10 Meetings in Arizona Cardinals-Seattle Seahawks
2014—Seahawks 35 @ Cardinals 6 Total—37 Result—Over
2014—@ Seahawks 19 Cardinals 3 Total—42½ Result—Under
2013—Cardinals 17 @ Seahawks 10 Total—42½ Result—Under
2013—Seahawks 34 @ Cardinals 22 Total—41 Result—Over
2012—@ Seahawks 58 @ Cardinals 0 Total—36 Result—Over
2012—@ Cardinals 20 Seahawks 16 Total—41 Result—Under
2011—@ Cardinals 23 Seahawks 20 (OT) Total—40½ Result—Over
2011—@ Seahawks 13 Cardinals 10 Total—42½ Result—Under
2010—Seahawks 36 @ Cardinals 18 Total—41½ Result—Over
2010—@ Seahawks 22 Cardinals 10 Total—40 Result—Under


Recent Relevant Series Trends and Game Expectations
As you can see, these two teams have gone 5-5 in the Totals market in the L10 meetings in the series overall, although 4 of the L5 meetings here at CenturyLink Field in Seattle have all gone Under (22, 27, 58, 23, and 32), averaging just 32.4 ppg with the 58-0 score from the 2012 season making this small Totals average seem even higher. The Over is 4-1 in Glendale in the L10 games, so this may be seen lately as an “@ Seattle-Under, @ Glendale-Over series,” although the previous 5 meetings in Seattle (2005-2009) all went Over the posted closing Total. But those were years before the Seahawks had evolved this current Legion of Boom dominating Defense and had settled into the NFC. When these two met last season, the Seahawks won 19-3 and covered as 7½-point favorites in Seattle while in this meeting in the Sonoran Desert last year, Seattle rolled to a 35-6 Win as 9-point favorites over the Cardinals as they closed hard to win the NFC West.

The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in the L5 overall in this series and Seattle is also 4-1 ATS the L5 here in suburban Phoenix while the Seahawks are 4-4 ATS on the Road under the Sunday night lights while the Cardinals and future Hall of Fame WR Larry Fitzgerald are a dismal 4-14 ATS here at Home on Sunday nights in primetime. The Westgate Las Vegas NFL Games of the Year had the Seahawks 6-point favorites in this fiesta. The Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their L8 against the NFC West and just 2-7-1 ATS in their L10 games overall. As far as Totals trends, in the L13 Cardinals (14/1 to win Super Bowl, William Hill) games played on FieldTurf (CenturyLink Field), the Under is a respectable 9-3-1 ATS and the Under is 10-3 the L13 Seahawks (12/1 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) games against the NFC West. The Over is 7-2-1 in the L10 Arizona games in the month of November and the Over is 7-2 ATS in the L9 Cardinals games overall as players like Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown enjoy playing with a healthy Palmer for a decent period of Time. But expect this one to start sluggish and tentative, with possibly gloomy Weather conditions adding to the nothingness and with nightfall, the visitors from the Sonoran Desert may not like the chilly feeling in their glove -covered fingertips. So maybe a 1st Quarter Under bet is in order as a 0-0, 3-0, 3-3 or 7-0 score at the end of one quarter here on Sunday night seems entirely possible. The Seahawks Defense—Bobby Wagner, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas—will come to be the center of attention here and will have no mercy with their backs up against the wall and coming in with a .500 record.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Seahawks 23 Cardinals 17

NFL WEEK 10 FREE TOTALS PICK: Under 44½ (5Dimes)

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