SBR's Peter Loshak shares his week 10 betting parlay, here he'll breakdown the public vs. sharp action in search of betting value to generate 4 plays worth adding to your NFL picks.
NFL Week 10 features several games with popular public teams getting bet by the public as big favorites on the NFL odds board, with notable sharp action coming in on the other side.
Denver was a huge public side last week, when sharp action came in late against them and drove the number down, and of course in that one the sharps wound up cashing and the public lost. This week the same scenario appears to be shaping up, with the public again on Denver, and sharp action already in on KC.
The public also loves the Pats this week, which is not a surprise at all. The sportsbooks have been getting burned by the Pats this year, as the public has bet them heavily week-in and week-out as a big favorite, and has cashed with them most weeks. The Pats are 5-1-1 ATS over their last 7 games, and in each of their last 6 games they've been a favorite of a touchdown or more.
This week the public is again big on the Pats, but notable sharp action did come in on the other side, on the Giants getting a touchdown at home.
And there's also a sharp/public split in the Detroit/Green Bay game. Sharp money has come in on Detroit multiple times this year, and has been losing with it. The Lions are 1-7 ATS overall, and several of those ATS losses burned big sharp money, including most recently in Detroit's blowout loss in the London game.
But some sharp outfits are reportedly willing to come back once again on the Lions this week, getting double digits against the Packers, who are off of two consecutive straight up losses. Carolina, undefeated straight up and 6-2 ATS, has attracted big public action this week as well, and while there has been big sharp action on Tennessee that has driven the spread on the game down during the week, there was also sharp action coming in at times on the Panthers, creating a two-way sharp money profile for that game.
In my parlay this week for the Pete’s Parlay Show, I included an NFL pick with the spread on that Panthers/Titans game, in addition to two other spread picks, and a pick on the total in the Dallas/Tampa Bay matchup.
4-Plays Parlay NFL Picks: Titans +4 / Miami +6 / Redskins PK / Cowboys/Buccaneers Over 43