NFL Picks: Week 1 Player Prop betting options
I have already given five picks on team props for NFL Week 1 action, and now it’s time for the player props. All of these NFL Odds come from Bet365, and I have three players’ totals that I have my eye on this week that I feel are loaded with value.
Russell Wilson - 217.5 passing yards
These two teams clashed last season during Week 5, and the total of the final score did not surpass 30 points. Now they face one another with a game total of 45, and Bet365 has Russell Wilson’s passing yards total at 217.5. Despite the fact that they want to run the ball, and despite the fact that the Panthers have gotten a lot better on defense since then, his passing yards total is still well over 200.
Now, Wilson did have 221 passing yards last season in this game, but that was before teams had a full season of game tape on him. Mixing in that they will want Marshawn Lynch to touch the ball well over 20 times, and being on the road in Week 1, I could see a dud here. It’s going to be really close, but the likelihood of the Hawks getting a lead and sitting on the ball is good, so combined with the other factors, take the ‘Under’ for this NFL pick.
My Pick: ‘Under’ 217.5 passing yards (-125)
David Wilson - 66.5 rushing yards
In a game that could be a shootout, and with Andre Brown sidelined with a fractured leg, David Wilson should be set for a heavy workload against the Cowboys in Week 1. He opened his career last season with a lot of up and down moments, but one thing is certain, which is the fact that he could get all of these yards on one play in the right situation. Wilson’s breakaway speed gives this bet extra value, and even though the chalk on the over is high at -150, there is just too much value.
The Cowboys are under a new defensive system with Monte Kiffin, and the Giants might have a slight advantage because of it. Their passing game is going to open wide lanes for the very speedy and surprisingly strong Wilson, and 67 or more rushing yards seems like a strong probability if he can get a couple of 10-20 yard runs early or late in the game. Wilson could get close to or exceed 20 carries in this game, and although a lot of his total yards come from receiving the ball, the breakaway speed factor turns this into value. Just one well blocked outside run, and this could be an easy cash.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 66.5 rushing yards (-150) at Bet 365's NFL Odds Proposition board.
Brandon Myers – 48.5 receiving yards
Brandon Myers is a new and talented addition to the Giants as a receiving tight end, but last season in Oakland, his blocking left something to be desired. If he can’t block in this game, he might find himself where Wilson found himself after fumbling in Week 1 last season against the Cowboys’ ... on the bench. On top of that, Eli Manning has never really liked using his tight ends too much in the passing game. Martellus Bennett, now with the Bears only averaged 39 yards per game last season out of the same position, and Bennett is also a very good tight end. Add that to the possibility that Myers could get taken out if he isn’t effective in pass or run blocking, and 48.5 seems a lot bigger than on the surface. Take the under. It’s his first game with a new team, and that can take some time.