NFL Picks: Week 1 Game-by-Game ATS Betting Guide

Nikki Adams

Sunday, September 6, 2015 3:31 PM GMT

NFL week 1 is finally here! The playing field is level so, we bring you our NFL picks for each and every game against the spread.

Live Week 1 NFL Betting Odds

Steelers vs. Patriots -6.5
As a rule, the preseason is no indication of what to expect from each and every team in the regular season, but – come on! –the Pittsburgh Steelers were downright awful. Offense was subpar for the most part, defense was extremely shaky as they went 1-4 SU and their injury list swelled. Let’s not forget the suspensions they’ve got to adjust to: ahem…Le’Veon Bell. They could have been holding out for the real deal, but we think they struggled for real.

Now that Tom Brady is set to lead HIS New England Patriots into the 2015-2016 NFL betting season – with a mighty chip on his shoulder, one might add –, the Steelers could have benefited from a much better preseason. If only to give the Patriots something to think about, drop a seed of doubt into their collective minds. They didn’t and the result is that the NFL betting line jumps up to 6.5-points ahead of week 1 NFL betting, up from 3-points where it was until news broke of Brady winning his appeal.

Odds makers feel Brady is worth the additional 3.5-point advantage over the Steelers. It does seem a bit much when one considers the Pats defense isn’t exactly the strongest in the league. Then again, they’ve got a lot of skilled players that can put the pressure on Big Ben and thwart the Steelers’ running game all while Brady and the offense work at a fast clip and put up the points quickly. Steelers are just 2-4 ATS in their last six games on the road to Patriots.
NFL Picks: Patriots -6.5 (-105) at Bet365

 

Panthers vs. Jaguars +3.5
The Carolina Panthers made a compelling case in the preseason going 3-1 SU. The Jaguars showed promise in a 2-2 SU record that saw them top the AFC South table. How these two teams stack up in week 1 NFL betting is rather interesting. There’s a lot of promise in Jacksonville but the expectation is that they’ll go through some growing pains. Blake Bortles needs to become more accurate and consistent in his second year. He has a better core around him in 2015-2016 so the chances are he might improve. Taking on an established outfit such as the Panthers in week 1 NFL betting though is a challenge. Cam Newton is rounding out into a very capable and solid quarterback and the Panthers defense is quite imposing. Essentially, this team resembles last year’s 7-8-1 product that traipsed into the NFL playoffs.
NFL Picks: Panthers -3.5 (+104) at Heritage

 

Browns vs. Jets -3.0
The NY Jets overcame adversity in the preseason to finish with a positive 3-1 SU record. The Browns fell flat in the last round, losing 24-0 to the Bears. Overall, the Jets are the deserved favorites in this game by the field goal. They made some good improvements in the offseason and they Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was acquired from Houston, has taken over the starting job as one would expect of a veteran quarterback, without too much fuss and mishap. It’s a home game over the Browns. The Jets should come up trumps on your NFL picks.
NFL Picks: Jets -3.0 (+103) at Pinnacle

 

Packers vs. Bears +6.5
The Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears open their seasons with a divisional battle that is going to be pivotal towards the NFC North table. Both teams have their own set of concerns, The Packers have been hit by injury while the Bears still have many question marks. As it is the regular season and Aaron Rodgers has a brilliant record against the Bears and Jay Cutler; the Packers are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last ten games with the Packers. So we’re chancing the Packers on the rather steep NFL betting line.
NFL Picks: Packers -6.5 (-110) at BetCris

 

Colts vs. Bills +2.5
The Buffalo Bills impressed in the preseason and they’ll look to continue that solid form into the regular season. The Colts were underwhelming with a 1-3 SU record, but they really didn’t go all out. They know what they have in their starters so they chose not to take unnecessary risks. One wonders whether they are prepared to take on a formidable Rex Ryan defense in week 1 on the road though with the starters having so little game preparation. Colts are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games when playing at Buffalo.
NFL Picks: Bills +2.5 (+101) at JustBet

 

Chiefs vs. Texans -1.5
The Kansas City Chiefs were undefeated in the preseason. Can they take that form into the regular season and spring a surprise on the Houston Texans, trading as the 1.5-point home chalk? Texans are at home and begin life under new quarterback Brian Hoyer. They’ll be without Arian Foster for the foreseeable but they have plenty options. Still, we give the slight edge to Alex Smith and the Chiefs as the 1.5-point road underdogs.
NFL Picks: Chiefs +1.5 (-110) at Ladbrokes

 

Dolphins vs. Redskins +4.0
Despite finishing the preseason with a 1-3 SU record and propping up the AFC East table, the Dolphins enter week 1 as the road favorites. Quite considerable ones too at -4-points. The move on the NFL odds board is understandable: Dolphins are an improving side with Ryan Tannehill maturing into a decent shot caller and they’ve bolstered their defense, which has many NFL bettors excited about their prospects in a tough division. The Redskins can’t help being the laughing stock of the league in recent seasons it seems. That said, Kirk Cousins takes over the helm and he’s been good in the preseason. Question is whether he can lead the Redskins to the win at home over the highly-fancied Dolphins.
NFL Picks: Redskins +4.0 (-110) at 5Dimes

 

Seahawks vs. Rams +4.5
Seattle Seahawks take on divisional rivals St. Louis Rams in week 1 NFL betting on the road as they debut Nick Foles. This should be an interesting game to all intents and purposes, particularly as we’re still not sure what to expect of the Rams. They showed very little initiative in the preseason as they finished 0-4 SU. Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS on the road to the Rams in the last five visits, which includes a 28-26 loss in St. Louis last season.
NFL Picks: Rams +4.5 (-115) at Bovado

 

Lions vs. Chargers -3.0
A lot of attention is being paid to the loss of Ndamukong Suh on defense. Almost none to the Lions’ offense, which appears to have improved in the offseason. Matthew Stafford and his O-line were sharp in the preseason, with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate making up one of the most potent targets. Granted this is going to be a tough road trip for Detroit, a good trek across the country for an inter-conference clash. That said, don’t write them off. Phillip Rivers penned a new deal in the offseason, so the onus is going to be on him to deliver. Put up or shut up, as the saying goes. That amounts to a lot of pressure. Over and above that from San Diego fans that are frustrated and bitter about the franchise’s potential departure to greener pastures in Los Angeles. A loss at home to the Lions won’t help their cause, but somehow that could be the way this game goes.
NFL Picks: Lions +3.0 (-114) at Heritage 

 

Saints vs. Cardinals -2.5
The New Orleans Saints left a lot of questions unanswered in the preseason, which doesn’t augur well ahead of week 1 NFL betting against the Arizona Cardinals on the road, a side that looks poised to pick up from where it left off last season. Take the Cardinals at home as the nominal 2.5-point home chalk on your NFL picks.
NFL Picks: Cardinals -2.5 (-110) at The Greek

 

Ravens vs. Broncos -4.5
The clash between the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos practically leaps off the page as a must-see game for NFL bettors in week 1 NFL betting. It’s a game that could go either way in theory, even if betting against the Broncos at Mile High is never a good idea. Denver went 8-0 SU at home during the regular season, with the only loss coming in the playoffs to the Colts. Overall, they finished 4-5 ATS. The last time the Ravens stopped at Mile High they left beaten, 49-27 with the Broncos easily covering the 7.5-point home chalk. That was in 2013 though, the year the Broncos reached the Super Bowl.
NFL Picks: Broncos -4.5 (-110) at Bet365

 

Bengals vs. Raiders +3.0
Every season begins with hope for the Cincinnati Bengals and for the most part they deliver when taking on so-called lightweights in the NFL. Where they come up short repeatedly is when coming up against a real contender. Oakland Raiders are much improved but contenders they are not. This is game the Bengals should take.
NFL Picks: Bengals -3.0 (-130) at JustBet

 

Titans vs. Bucs -3.0
Week 1 of the NFL betting season pits two of the top NFL draft picks against each other. Should make for some entertaining football. Bucs have yet to win a regular season home game since 2013. They managed to clinch their first home win in the offseason when they defeated the Cincinnati Bengals. The pressure is now going to be on them to replicate that result in their season home opener against a technically beatable side. Still a field goal advantage seems a bit much for two sides that are still finding their identities.
NFL Picks: Titans +3.0 (+104) at Heritage

 

Giants vs. Cowboys -6.0
Dallas Cowboys took a leisurely approach to the preseason or they struggled? Depends on perception, supposedly. By and large, the expectation is that they’ll burst out of the gates in their regular season opener against the NY Giants, who also left a lot unanswered in the preseason. On what basis that notion rests though is up in the air. Cowboys are without DeMarco Murray, one of their standout performers last season. Six-points at home for the Cowboys seems a bit much as a result. Giants may be just 2-4 ATS in their last six games against the Cowboys, but none of those spreads reached as high as a score. What’s more four of the six games were decided by no more than five points at the most.
NFL Picks: Giants +6.0 (-110) at Bet365

 

Eagles vs. Falcons +3.0
The Philadelphia Eagles soared high during the preseason, showcasing their high-octane offense. Now that it’s the real deal, odds makers are being conservative and rolling out merely a field goal line. Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray have gelled really well in the preseason and they’ll look to kick off Chip Kelly and the Eagles to a positive start in Atlanta. Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ O-line have looked good, but their defensive issues still appear to be a problem.
NFL Picks: Eagles -3.0 (-110) at SIA

 

Vikings vs. 49ers +2.5
The Minnesota Vikings are riding the confidence of a 4-1 SU finish to the preseason, which extends their record in the exhibition round to 8-1 SU over the last two seasons. They might have dropped their last game, but that’s neither here nor there as NFL bettors feel like they’ve already seen plenty of what the Vikings might look like in 2016 and are confident in their value. What goes against the Niners in the NFL betting space is the fact that Colin Kaepernick and his starters failed to combine together for a single touchdown during the preseason. Betting confidence in the Niners seems to have hit a new nadir as a result. Consensus betting is most likely to go with the Vikings as the road faves, but we’re fading the public and taking the Niners as the home underdogs.
NFL Picks: 49ers +2.5 (-103) at Heritage

Live Week 1 NFL Odds

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