NFL Picks: Weak Defenses Suggest That Jaguars & Ravens Will Go 'Over' 47.5

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, November 14, 2015 8:52 PM GMT

When you look at what the NFL odds makers are posting for totals you don’t care who wins or loses, only the combined score. Let’s analyze the total in a game between two teams struggling for mediocrity and cash in our NFL picks.

Matchup Nightmare
Jimmy Smith has been one of the premier corners in the game but since he injured his foot last season and was placed on injured reserve he has been far less than his usual stellar self. He ranks 96th amongst 111 cornerbacks rated by Pro Football Focus and is getting torched on a regular basis this season while his counterpart Ladarius Webb is not much better. Smith will cover Allen Robinson of the Jaguars who had 121 receiving yards against the Jets who employed Darrelle Revis to shadow the Jags top receiver.

This should be ice cream for the second year pro out of Penn State and even if they double cover Robinson the Jags have another talented receiver in Allen Hurns who will make life miserable for the league’s 29th rated pass defense. The Ravens have simply been woeful this season owning the 25th ranked points allowed defense and really do only one thing well which is stopping the run surrendering 99.8 yards per contest (10th in the league). However, chances are the Jags will be looking to pass far more often than they will be handing the ball off to T.J. Yeldon. Yet it should be noted that over his last two games against the Bills and Jets, both top ranked run defenses, Yeldon totaled at least 100 yards in both games and averaged 4.7 yards per carry. It could be a very long day for the Raven’s defense.

 

Jags Defense Rather Offensive
Defensively the Jaguars, like the Ravens,  don't do very much very well except stop the run. They are ranked 30th of 32 in points allowed surrendering an average of 29.4 points per game and are 25th against the pass allowing 264 yards per contest. However like Baltimore the team has remained stout defending the run ranking 6th in that category allowing only 94.3 rushing yards per game.

On offense the Jaguars 22nd ranked offense is not going to set any records as they average just over 21 points per contest with a rushing attack that is 23rd in the league chewing up 96.8 yards on the ground. But quarterback Blake Bortles is making strides in the passing department marshaling the 11th ranked air assault with over 257 yards on average. Their penchant for the big plays is about the only thing setting them apart from their compatriots in the NFL's cellar. Jacksonville now has a big arm under center and the weapons to complement that arm with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. Therefore it comes as little surprise that the Jags rank 2nd in plays of 20 yards or more trailing only New Orleans in that department. The under-the-radar dynamic duo of Robinson, a second-round pick in the 2014 draft and Hurns, an undrafted rookie in the same year, are both tall (6'3"), lanky receivers who are explosive when they catch the ball. They rank fourth and fifth respectively with both averaging over 17 yards per catch.

 

Betting Analysis
The NFL odds makers opened this total at 50 but it has dropped significantly primarily due to the public's awareness of the teams' inability to put points on the scoreboard. That's a pretty compelling reason. However we have two quarterbacks in Joe Flacco and Blake Bortles that can move the chains regardless who they play. Both have big arms and against the weak defenses they will see on Sunday it won't be surprising to see this one fly over the posted total. If you are choosing to play a total in your NFL picks this Sunday you could do much worse than going over in this one.

NFL Picks: Play Over 47.5 at GTBets

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