NFL Picks: We're Betting on the Packers at Home Against Rams

Nikki Adams

Friday, October 9, 2015 7:18 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 7:18 PM GMT

Can the Rams mastermind the third biggest upset of the season when they take on the Packers at Lambeau? A heady thought as weigh in on this highly-anticipated clash and serve up NFL picks.

St. Louis Rams (2-2, 1-1 away)
The St. Louis Rams are proving to be the surprise package this season having upset both the Seattle Seahawks and high-flying Arizona Cardinals, two of the best teams in the NFC West division and their biggest rivals. In spite of those statement making wins, the St. Louis Rams are just 2-2 SU and ATS with a 3.8-point margin of defeat on average, prompting some NFL bettors to question the veracity of those wins.

The main reason for doubting the Rams is the quality of their losses, which came to lesser opposition in the Redskins and to Ben Roethlisberger-less Steelers. Nevertheless, should they pull off the upset at Lambeau, the entire NFL field would have to stand to attention. The Packers are amongst the best home teams in recent seasons. Beating them would be the making of the Rams in no uncertain terms.

As it is, odds makers don’t quite fancy the Rams to pull off the monumental feat. The Rams are trading as the massive road underdogs at +375 NFL odds to win straight up (or thereabouts depending on your choice sports betting shop). They are also trading on 10-points against the spread at most sportsbooks –some have them at 9-points and the lowest spread we’re able to find currently trading is 8.5-points at Bet365.

It’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for the Rams across the board though. As good as the Rams are on defense – ferocious even – their offense isn’t consistent or ranked amongst the best in the league. The formidable pass rush defense might be able to give Aaron Rodgers and the Packers something to think about, but odds makers are exceedingly confident in the Packers and their ability to overcome just about any opponent in the league. Heck, they are the current Super Bowl 50 faves.

Still, that’s not deterred those NFL bettors who are harping on the upset in this game. A good 40% of the money coming down the wire is going towards the Rams in both spread betting markets and straight up betting markets, an interesting NFL betting trend that goes against all the stats that practically leap off the page and point towards the Packers as being the smart play here.

 

Green Bay Packers (4-0 SU, 2-0 home)
When Jordy Nelson went down with an injury in the first game of the season, a collective groan was heard around the league. Furrowed brows were contemplating how Aaron Rodgers could possibly play without his beloved target, prompting many to speculate about their season proper and how tangible might their upside be down the stretch and into the playoffs.

When more injuries ensued to Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Eddie Lacy and Andrew Quarless, to name a few, the groans grew to a deafening crescendo. Remarkably, amidst all the fuss and noise, the Packers continue to win from week to week – to the chagrin of their naysayers. Brushing aside each and every injury, they have shown their mettle and worth by winning any which way they can.

In week 1, they shredded familiar foes Chicago Bears. In week 2, they stifled the Legion of Boom in a 27-17 win at Lambeau. In week 3, they rode roughshod over the Kansas City Chiefs in a 38-28 win. In week 4, they outmuscled the Niners in a 17-3 win.

 

NFL Betting Verdict:
Inasmuch as the Rams have shown they can rise to the challenge posed by the best teams in the NFL, the other side of the coin involves a team that has a proven track record of success at home – since 2014, the Packers are 11-0 SU and 8-2-1 ATS with a 16.4-point margin of victory. Those aren’t numbers to sniff at. Nevertheless, the idea of an upset is alluring and seductive to many NFL bettors, not to mention potentially lucrative at the cash window. Otherwise, why else would 40% of the public betting on this game bet against the Packers?

For our money, we’re sticking with the home faves in this game across the board to both win straight up and cover on our NFL picks. Professional football is a numbers game at the best of times and while the upset is possible (nothing is never impossible), the reasonable probability of it actually happening is slim to none. With that in mind, we must bet on the Packers.

NFL Picks: Packers +8.5 (-110) Bet365

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