In each week’s PERCEPTION/REALITY game, I search for a team that will garner a lot of public betting attention and support against a team who has been a bit down on their luck. Such a description clearly characterizes tonight’s MNF matchup, leading to great NFL betting value.
The Washington Redskins have fallen on hard times. After going 10-7 SU, 11-6 ATS in 2012, it appeared the Redskins had turned the corner. Much was expected of the 2013 version behind RG3. But an injury and TO plagued (32 of them) season saw the Washington record dissolve to 3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS. The axe fell on former HC Shanahan. In his favor was 1st year HC Gruden. Unfortunately for the Redskins, their fortunes have not changed. Since mid-season of last year, Washington is 2-13 SU, 4-11 ATS. The only victories this season have come at home against Jacksonville and last week at home vs. Tennessee. But, that victory was bittersweet as they lost QB Griffin once again to an ankle injury. Starting in his place tonight is QB Colt McCoy, who played decently in the Redskins victory last week. But, McCoy is 7-14 ATS as NFL starter and has not seen meaningful time in 3 years. You can see why no one is hurrying to hop on the Washington bandwagon. But, the Redskins’ numbers show them outgaining the opposition 389 to 321 this year. 6.4 yards per play offense is best in the league. The culprit is a -9 net Turnover margin, a continuing issue from last season.
At the other end of the spectrum is the long-awaited emergence of a Dallas team, who has gone 8-8 SU the previous 3 seasons. This year, the Cowboys have won 6 straight games, following their opening day defeat on this field to San Francisco. They are now 5-2 ATS, covering the number by a net 57 points. A resurgent offense has been the key. The Cowboys average 28 PPG on a balanced 402 YPG, behind QB Romo and RB Murray. The ground attack has been outstanding, running the ball an average of 34 times per game for 160/4.8. With numbers like that, it is hard for the public to do anything but favor a resurgent Americas’ Team!
If you are searching for ammunition to back this contrary side, look no further than these technical numbers. The NFC East has long been known for the success of the road underdog. Nowhere has that been more true than in the statistic that shows NFC East divisional home chalk to be 1-14 ATS on MNF. That fits hand in glove with the fact the Cowboys are 1-10 ATS as MNF favorite and 0-7 ATS, laying 6 or more in the last 2 seasons. With Washington standing 12-3 ATS in this series and 12-2 ATS as division road dog vs. .500 or better foes, we have enough support to make Washington your PERCEPTION/REALITY PLAY OF THE WEEK.