With that being said, LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the Skins as +240 underdogs to win the NFC East this season, well behind the +150 Giants who are the favorites. This division should be a tight race throughout the season among the top two or three teams, and the sportsbooks aren’t giving bettors much value for their NFL picks considering the Robert Griffin III factor.
Washington came out of almost nowhere last season to win the NFC East as big underdogs, upsetting the Giants as +850 underdogs to win the division. They went way over their season wins projection of 6 ½ from one point in the offseason, but this season things are much different. After a heroic and some would say ill advised effort in the postseason, Griffin’s knee was left in ruin.
Whether or not RG3 comes back and plays in Week 1 is still up in the air. We are still three months from the start of the season and a lot can happen (or not happen depending on how it turns out) in a recovery in three months. The Skins could be rusty if he doesn’t get any preseason snaps, so even if he is ready to go by Week 1, Washington could suffer early on and it could kill them to win the division. They could obviously still have a great season regardless, but in the end, the sportsbooks aren’t giving us much with these prices.
A theme throughout these future odds articles has been the risk/reward factor when it comes to these bets, and the risk almost always outweighs the reward in the divisional future NFL odds. In the NFC East’s case, it’s almost worse than that.
If Griffin’s knee is healthy and ready to go by Week 1, than I could possibly endorse the Skins winning this division again. Obviously the spoils won’t be as much as whoever cashed on the Skins winning the division last season at over 8/1, but at almost 2.5/1, there is a small amount of value. If you can find it north of 3/1, I think the value would then outweigh the risk, but as I stated in my articles on the Giants and others, we can find money line bets on underdogs during the pre and regular seasons that have far more value than a +240 bet on the Skins to win the NFC East. There are too many variables in this division, in the NFL in general, and in the anterior cruciate ligament in the knee of Griffin III.
In the meantime, we can also speculate the Skins’ value in the NFL Odds this upcoming season, and after going 11-5 ATS during the regular season in 2012, I can say that this year we will not have that luxury. I could still see them being slightly undervalued, but definitely not as much as last season. The Skins were also 6-0 ATS against their division in 2012, which I can almost guarantee won’t happen again.
They won’t hit anyone by surprise in 2013, but they Skins could still have value, but we need a few more medical reports before we go any further.